Russia-Ukraine: tension: could what’s happening on the border lead to war?
Alarm bells have been ringing across Europe and the fear is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating a rerun of 2014. What does Russia want and what can we expect?
Alarm bells have been ringing across Europe over a build-up of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine in recent months. The fear is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is contemplating a rerun of 2014, when Russian forces annexed the Crimean peninsula and provided support for a separatist, pro-Russian insurgency in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Moscow denies having any plans to invade, but U.S. officials have said such a move is possible. President Biden spoke with Mr. Putin about the rising tensions in a video call Tuesday, in which he was expected to warn off the Russian leader from any invasion.
So far it is unclear whether Russia wants to reassert control of the former Soviet republic, or to warn off the U.S. and NATO from developing closer ties with Ukraine and maintain it as a buffer between Moscow and the West.
What’s happening on the Russia-Ukraine border?
Russia hasn’t revealed much information about the scale of its troop deployment on the Ukrainian border. U.S. officials, however, say Mr. Putin is assembling a force that is expected to total 175,000 troops, giving him the means to order an invasion by early 2022. Citing new intelligence reports that include images from spy satellites, the officials say the Russian military build-up differs from an earlier massing of troops in the spring. When complete, they say, Russia’s deployment in the area will likely be twice as large. In addition, Russia has embarked on a rapid mobilisation of reservists.
“If Russia decides to pursue confrontation, there will be serious consequences,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week before meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Stockholm.
What’s at stake for Russia?
Ukraine was a valuable resource when it was part of the Soviet Union. Its rich farmland produced much of the wheat consumed in the old U.S.S.R. and it was an important industrial centre. Its vast plains acted as a kind of buffer between the European powers and the Russian hinterland. There are also close historical, cultural and linguistic connections predating the rise of the Russian empire in the 18(th) century. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, Moscow continued to view Ukraine as a pivotal geopolitical space and has watched the growing pro-Western sentiment there with concern.
After popular protests in Kiev and other cities drove a pro-Russian president from office, Russia annexed Crimea, home to its Black Sea fleet, and began supporting pro-Russia militias in eastern Ukraine, though it has denied sending troops and equipment to reinforce the rebels.
Since then, more than 14,000 people have been killed in the Donbas region and political settlement remains far off despite a peace agreement negotiated by Germany and France. Ceasefire violations have increased this year and Russia’s troop build-up has frayed nerves further.
How is Ukraine responding?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said Russia is sending what he described as a “very dangerous” signal with its troop movements, and that Ukrainian forces are standing ready to repel any incursion. Mr. Zelensky also said last month that his government had uncovered a coup plot involving Russian citizens, without providing further details. Moscow has denied the allegation.
Will Russia invade Ukraine?
U.S. officials say that American intelligence agencies don’t know whether Moscow will press ahead with an invasion but Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said Monday that the build-up of forces is such that Russia “could act in a very sweeping way.” The U.S. has repeatedly briefed its allies that such a move is possible, and Mr. Blinken last week warned of economic sanctions against Russia in such an event. The White House, meanwhile, is conducting a review of options to respond to any Russian offensive, ranging from more military support for Ukraine to further diplomatic efforts to de-escalate any potential conflict. Mr. Biden is expected to emphasise the risks if Russia were to take steps to inflame the situation further.
On Monday, he spoke with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the U.K., key members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. They agreed to call on Russia to take steps to resolve the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine.
What does Russia want?
Russia has denied that it is preparing to invade its smaller neighbour and has accused NATO of providing Ukraine with sophisticated weaponry, fomenting tension and destabilising the region.
Russian officials have said they don’t want any conflicts and Moscow wants to ensure a balance of interests in the region. The Kremlin is also demanding guarantees that NATO won’t expand any further east or deploy weapons close to Russian territory. Some security analysts suggest that Moscow’s primary objective is to prevent the West from developing a stronger relationship with Mr. Zelensksy’s administration.
On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russia’s Channel One state television channel that Mr. Putin was ready to listen to Mr. Biden’s proposals on settling the situation in Ukraine, but cautioned against excessive expectations.
“I think that President Putin will listen to these offers with great interest, and it will be possible to understand to what extent they are able to ease tensions,” Mr. Peskov said.
The Wall Street Journal
