Deterring Russia in Ukraine

Vladimir Putin watches the joint drills by the Northern and Black Sea Fleets from onboard the cruiser Marshal Ustinov. Picture: AFP.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday made the toughest statements to date about Russia’s military build-up on its border with Ukraine. And on Thursday he’ll meet his Russian counterpart in Stockholm as tensions rise between Moscow and the U.S. The question is whether President Biden’s envoy can convince Vladimir Putin that the U.S. means what it says.

“We’re deeply concerned by evidence that Russia has made plans for significant aggressive moves against Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken said Wednesday at a meeting of NATO ministers in Latvia. “The plans include efforts to destabilise Ukraine from within, as well as large scale military operations.” In other words, Russia may be planning a coup in Kiev.

“We are prepared to impose severe costs for further Russian aggression in Ukraine,” Mr. Blinken added, and “NATO is prepared to reinforce its defences on the eastern flank.” Mr. Blinken didn’t get specific, and Ukraine isn’t a NATO member, but this was as clear a statement of military deterrence as the alliance has been willing to make as Mr. Putin stirs trouble on his borders. Mr. Blinken had better mean it because Mr. Putin may call his bluff.

Mr. Biden met with the Russian strongman in June, hoping for better relations, but the returns have been negative. Russia has tested an antisatellite missile, without warning, that could be used against U.S. assets. Belarus, with support from Moscow, has weaponized migrants along the European Union border.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (R) in Stockholm. Picture: AFP.

Russia has also moved some 90,000 troops to the edge of Ukraine. Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar told us that “the Russian side continues to build capabilities by increasing the number of troops and weapon systems in the occupied Crimea.” A broad winter invasion is possible.

Western leaders have consistently underestimated Mr. Putin because they misjudge his ambitions. He doesn’t want Russia to become a normal European power. He views the break-up of the Soviet Union as a national tragedy, and he wants to restore a Greater Russia by bringing the former Soviet republics back under Kremlin sway.

Ukraine is the biggest prize, and Mr. Putin would like it to become a satellite dictatorship like Belarus. His problem is that most Ukrainians see a better future aligned with the West, even if it would take decades to join the EU or NATO. Mr. Putin is looking for the right time and means to make his move, and he will if he thinks the costs will be acceptable.

So far Mr. Putin has no reason to think they wouldn’t be. Mr. Biden gave the Russian what he wanted by acceding to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Europe, and U.S. sanctions for Russia’s SolarWinds hack weren’t enough. Mr. Putin also knows the West is divided, with Germany eager to give in.

Ukrainian activists from different parties held a rally against the "anti-Ukrainian" politics of the country's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Picture: AFP.

“Diplomacy is the only responsible way to resolve this potential crisis,” Mr. Blinken said Wednesday, but more than diplomacy will be needed for deterrence. The best way to send that message is more lethal military assistance to Ukraine, whose troops are fighting and dying against Russian-backed separatists in the east.

Ms Malyar says Kiev needs “anti-aircraft, anti-ship, and anti-missile defence (including Patriot anti-aircraft and missile defence systems), electronic and anti-drone weaponry,” along with “artillery and mortar systems, reconnaissance and medical equipment, ships and boats.”

Much of that should already be on the way, along with much more antitank weaponry in Ukraine, as tanks are critical to taking and holding territory. A surge of NATO troops to Poland would be useful, and it’s too bad the alliance didn’t decide to send them this week. Sending NATO military advisers and trainers to Ukraine can’t be ruled out.

The U.S. and Europe will also have to make clear that they are willing to go much further than previous rounds of sanctions. Nord Stream 2 should die, and tighter restrictions on Putin cronies and Russian debt issuance are needed. Russia’s state-owned banks, energy firms and mining and metals companies are vulnerable.

The moment is more dangerous than most Americans realise, as Mr. Putin sizes up the will of the new Administration and Mr. Biden. Whatever Mr. Putin says, it’s foolish to believe that making an invasion more costly will somehow make him more likely to carry one out.

Wall St Journal