Donald Trump’s split-screen strategy: put his criminal trial at campaign’s centre
The presumptive Republican Party presidential nominee will soon be in a New York courtroom four days a week. For him, that’s an electioneering opportunity.
Donald Trump made his name and fortune and launched a political career in New York before turning his back on the city. But for at least six weeks starting next month he will be a captive resident, the first ex-president in US history to go on trial.
So how will the presumptive Republican nominee campaign? By putting the courtroom at the centre of his strategy.
Barring further delay, Mr Trump’s hush-money trial on 34 state felony charges begins April 15. He is required to attend the proceedings, which are scheduled for every day of the work week except Wednesdays and coming Jewish holidays — putting him in Manhattan for a crucial stretch of the campaign instead of in battlegrounds such as Michigan or Nevada.
Mr Trump hopes to use that to his advantage by firing up supporters, raising money and casting himself as a victim.
“The trial should not be allowed to start in the middle of my campaign,” Mr Trump said during the week in one of many posts about his legal travails. “They could have filed more than three years ago — THEY WAITED! THIS IS ANOTHER WITCH HUNT FOR PURPOSES OF ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!”
Of the various prosecutions he faces, the hush-money case is considered the least consequential and even some Democrats have characterised it as weak by comparison.
Yet it could be the only criminal trial Mr Trump has this year given delays his lawyers have won in the other cases, which include attempts to overturn the 2020 election and the mishandling of classified documents. Mr Trump is hoping to push them past his November rematch with President Joe Biden.
His campaign has been preparing its strategy for months, and Mr Trump has already put it into practice, turning his courtroom arrivals and departures into cable news spectacles, often speaking to reporters and denouncing his pursuers. Those moves dovetail with fundraising appeals that have pulled in millions of dollars.
The campaign is planning to use the few available off days, including weekends, for travel, so Mr Trump can appear at traditional events, including his trademark rallies. The former president has a Boeing 757, making travel faster.
“If this was the first of October, it might have a different dynamic. But it’s still early in the process, and he has proven he is able to generate messaging in every circumstance,” said Charlie Gerow, a GOP strategist who isn’t involved with Mr Trump’s campaign.
Still, the Biden camp is welcoming the contrast provided by Mr Trump’s courtroom focus, as the incumbent president visits battleground states and raises money. “We’ll let Donald Trump focus on his own problems — our campaign is focused on the American people and earning their vote this November,” said Biden campaign spokesman Ammar Moussa.
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt predicted that Mr Trump’s trial would boost him against the incumbent.
“Joe Biden and the Democrats’ entire strategy to defeat President Trump is to confine him to a courtroom,” Ms Leavitt said, adding that Mr Trump would “continue to fight for truth in the courtroom and to share his winning message on the campaign trail”.
The trial won’t be televised, denying Mr Trump — and his critics — wall-to-wall cable TV coverage. He faces felony counts of falsifying records to hide a payment made to a porn star weeks before the 2016 election. Trump has denied wrongdoing, as well as the alleged sexual encounter with Stormy Daniels.
The judge in the case, Juan Merchan, this past week issued a gag order restricting Mr Trump from speaking about jurors, witnesses and prosecutors, with the exception of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, whom Mr Trump has attacked as the instigator of a broader political persecution.
Judge Merchan cited Mr Trump’s history of “threatening, inflammatory, denigrating” remarks about people involved in his various cases.
Mr Trump is also barred from making public comments about the families of court staff or lawyers if they are made with the intent to interfere with the case.
Trials of this duration can be exhausting, lawyers say, and require a lot of preparation when court isn’t in session.
Jury selection is likely to take at least a week. At a hearing earlier this year, lawyers debated asking potential jurors questions ranging from whether they believed the 2020 election was stolen — which Mr Trump has falsely claimed since his loss — to whether they were members of various fringe groups including Oath Keepers and antifa.
“We can’t ignore the elephant in the room,” Trump lawyer Todd Blanche said during a hearing earlier this year. He noted that Mr Trump was running for president and being tried by a Democratic district attorney. “So whether we like it or not, a juror’s political affiliation has to be something that we know and understand.”
The trial will result in police barricades and other heavy security measures around the lower Manhattan courthouse for weeks. Mr Trump’s presence will also have an impact on the state criminal courthouse, which is more accustomed to street criminals than former presidents.
Mr Trump typically holds campaign events on weekends, so he will be free to do those in addition to maximising Wednesdays. Campaign officials have begun mapping out his schedule, according to people familiar with the planning. Earlier this year Mr Trump told Breitbart News he’d like to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden — “That’s the belly of the beast, right?” — and he has mused about being competitive in overwhelmingly Democratic New York state.
The former president can also do video or telephone rallies, and he continues to release policy videos in which he talks directly to the camera. And he uses his Truth Social platform at all hours, with those missives sometimes driving their own headlines.
Since rolling through the GOP primaries, Mr Trump has kept a lighter campaign schedule, occupied in part by court appearances in Florida and New York. Legal fees have cut heavily into his campaign coffers, leaving him at a yawning disadvantage with Mr Biden. Mr Trump faces a potential personal financial blow over a New York civil fraud case, even as this week he won a victory in cutting the amount he needs to post while he appeals against the $US454m ($697m) judgment.
Meanwhile, Mr Biden has visited every swing state since his State of the Union address earlier this month, including North Carolina this past week, where he spoke about healthcare. He has pursued an aggressive fundraising schedule, racking up a significant financial lead over Mr Trump. His campaign sees Mr Trump’s absence on the trail as an advantage, as Mr Biden tries to improve his approval ratings.
Mr Biden raised $US26m at a fundraiser on Thursday in New York alongside former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. At the end of February, his campaign apparatus had more than $US155m cash on hand, compared with Mr Trump’s $US74.4m. The Trump campaign says it won’t be able to match the Democrats, but more high-profile GOP donors are getting behind Mr Trump, and an event in the coming week in Palm Beach is expected to raise more than $US33m.
Mr Trump also faces the continued question of how to pay his lawyers’ bills. Since early last year, a Trump leadership political action committee (PAC) has shelled out more than $US53m in legal-related expenses.
A conviction in the New York case probably wouldn’t bring jail time, experts say, though it is possible. More likely is the damage it would do with some voters who might be on the fence about supporting him.
“I think there is a segment of voters that just morally won’t vote for a convicted criminal to go into the White House. We see that in polls. How big that segment is, I think is unclear,” said Democratic pollster Michael Bocian, who conducts surveys for The Wall Street Journal.
Polls in most key battleground states show Mr Trump close to or leading Mr Biden, and he is in a stronger position currently than he was in 2020. Some polls also have shown Mr Trump’s advantage would slip if he were convicted of a crime.
GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio, who works for a super PAC supporting Mr Trump and conducts surveys for the Journal, countered that Mr Trump has already faced court losses and that it hasn’t affected his standing.
“What voter doesn’t know about Stormy Daniels at this point?” Mr Fabrizio said. “I just don’t know what’s going to be different about this case.”
Catherine Lucey contributed to this article.
The Wall Street Journal
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