Biden’s State of the Union was a bad bet

US President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address showed he’s betting big that the economy is already turning around. Picture: AFP/Getty Images/WSJ

President Joe Biden considers himself a blue-collar working stiff from middle America. But another side of Scranton Joe was on display in his State of the Union address Tuesday night: a high-rolling gambler.

His speech was one gigantic political bet. Team Biden knows that Americans feel both that the economy is in bad shape and that things have gotten worse for their families since he took office. Workers’ wages rose less than prices last year, which probably explains these sour feelings.

This – along with his malaprops and advanced age – have left only about a quarter of Americans confident in his ability to run the White House. Only 37 per cent of Democrats want him to run again. Lest anyone think things are on an upswing: It was 52 per cent before the midterms.

Staying the course was also Ronald Reagan’s strategy, but he had a good plan.

Even last month’s jobs numbers haven’t helped Mr Biden. In a February 1 Washington Post/ABC poll, 60 per cent of respondents say Mr Biden hasn’t made progress in “creating more good jobs” in their communities. That’s part of the president’s bigger problem: 62 per cent say he has accomplished “not very much” or “little or nothing” while in the Oval Office.

It’s remarkable then that Tuesday Mr Biden doubled down. He’s betting big that the economy is already turning around. He crowed loudly about its improving state, rewrote history where needed (“two years ago, the economy was reeling”) and urged Americans to “finish the job”. That phrase was the subject line of a fundraising email he sent at 10.24pm asking for $US7 for the DNC, apparently while in the limo back to the White House. Now we know his 2024 re-election slogan.

Will staying the course work for Mr Biden? Maybe. That strategy paid off for Ronald Reagan, who had worse polling and economic numbers at this point in his first term. But Mr Reagan had something Mr Biden doesn’t have – a good plan. While Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was aggressively stamping out inflation, Mr Reagan was cutting taxes, slashing red tape and unnecessary regulation, freeing up the economy, reining in Washington’s spending, and creating confidence through an optimistic but realistic conversation about the nation’s challenges.

By contrast, Mr Biden raised taxes, dramatically scaled up the regulatory burden, puffed up domestic government spending, and undermined public confidence with his bumbling ways. On Tuesday he advocated for more of the same for the next two years. House Republicans will, of course, keep this from happening. But if the economy recovers, the president will argue it was in spite of GOP intransigence. If inflation doesn’t dissipate or a recession arrives, Mr Biden will blame Republicans.

The president also signalled he’ll adopt a left-populist tone for his re-election. On Tuesday he went after the oil and gas industry, billionaires who don’t pay taxes, credit-card companies, airlines, banks and internet and wireless network providers. He promised each would be the object of legislative proposals.

Most of these were phony assaults, designed to distract. For example, while he criticised oil companies for having “invested too little … to increase domestic production,” his administration has closed federal lands and waters for drilling, slow-played existing leasing, cancelled pipelines and blocked rapid approval of infrastructure needed to move energy from the wellhead to refineries and markets. But faux outrage enlivened what could have been a dull speech.

It’s also interesting what went unmentioned. Team Biden understands its signature $US1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan wasn’t well-received. Americans don’t think it did much except increase inflation. That’s why it wasn’t brought up Tuesday. Also, no mention of the Chinese spy balloon, except to dismiss China’s power.

The policy section of Mr Biden’s speech called for the unlikely (comprehensive immigration reform), impossible (ban of semi-automatic guns), implausible (national teacher pay raise) and fanciful (unlimited abortion access law). Don’t expect any of these to be seriously pushed or considered, except to score political points.

Team Biden’s risky bet on the economy is unlikely to pay off, at least not without a ginormous assist from congressional Republicans or the eventual GOP nominee. People have made up their minds about Mr Biden. They don’t believe he has made their paychecks bigger, inflation smaller or the economy stronger. They don’t see him as the powerful, effective leader the US needs for the next six years. Tuesday’s State of the Union didn’t change public opinion’s underlying contours. In their heart of hearts, Americans hope he stays healthy and can handle things while the country settles on a new president.

He was elected as a transitional figure. Voters still hope he is.

Karl Rove helped organize the political-action committee American Crossroads and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).

The Wall Street Journal