American presidential marathon campaign turns a sprint

The Trump-Biden race was as long as it felt. Trump-Harris is over in 100 days.

Kamala Harris campaigns in Houston, Texas, on Wednesday. Picture: AFP

This presidential election was one of America’s longest: Donald Trump announced his run for re-election on November 15, 2022, and Joe Biden his on April 25, 2023. But with Biden’s withdrawal and replacement by Vice-President ­Kamala Harris, it suddenly became one of the shortest. With less than 100 days before voting closes, the race is essentially tied.

The RealClearPolitics average of nine polls conducted after Biden’s exit puts Trump ahead nationally by two percentage points, 48.1 per cent to 46.1 per cent. It’s probably even closer. One poll in the RCP average was an outlier, giving Trump a seven-point lead, while the eight other surveys had him one point down to four points up.

Harris’s rise has been stunning. RCP puts her ahead in Michigan and in striking distance in all other swing states. Her favourability ­rating in a July 28 poll by Morning Consult was up to 50 per cent, higher than either Biden or Trump has ever been in this campaign.

Since Biden withdrew, Harris has seamlessly turned his campaign apparatus into hers. She deftly grabbed the endorsement of party leaders. Her success in fundraising and generating grassroots enthusiasm swamped both traditional coverage and social media. Her vice-presidential search has introduced interesting Democrat stars to the public. And she’s shedding some troublesome views, for instance saying that she no longer opposes fracking.

Harris has begun defining herself in appearances and ads as a prosecutor who put “murderers and abusers behind bars”, a state ­attorney-general who took on big banks, and a vice-president who forced drug companies to cut prices. All the while she attacks Trump for favouring tax cuts for billionaires and the repeal of ObamaCare.

Still, she hasn’t yet developed an effective broader narrative about the GOP ticket. Calling Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, “weird” won’t work. The attack’s substance – for example, Vance’s strange remarks about childless women – will hurt. But calling them “weird” likely won’t be enough to sway swing voters. To them, all politicians are weird.

Trump has seemed distracted by his running mate’s past statements and frustrated that the media’s attention has shifted off him with Harris’s entry. He’s been making needless mistakes. By equivocating on whether he’ll still show up to ABC’s September 10 debate, he wasted valuable time that he could have spent attacking Harris’s left-wing views. It left him looking weak.

But now Republicans appear to be sharpening their focus. They are pivoting to defining Harris as a San Francisco radical, starting with her statements during the 2020 Democrat primary and moving to the Biden-Harris record.

On Tuesday, the Trump campaign launched a $US12m ($18.4m), six-state ad barrage. It led with an effective ad on border security, slamming Harris as Biden’s failed “border tsar” whose policies allowed 10 million to cross the border illegally and led to 250,000 deaths from fentanyl and violent crimes committed by ­migrants. Her vulnerability on this issue is obvious in how friendly media that called Harris the “border tsar” when Biden appointed her to that role now protest Team Trump’s using the term.

It’s one thing to run an ad, however effective. It’s another to magnify the message through earned media – that is, independent coverage from newspapers, broadcasters and the like. That requires discipline to focus on issues so that they can’t be ignored. Republicans did it at their convention by featuring ordinary people talking about inflation, the border and the lack of respect for America around the world.

Trump must show self-control and patience in exploring the Harris record. He needs to forgo his long rally speeches regurgitating what he considers his greatest hits and instead zero in on a single issue at a time. The most effective way to do that is by showcasing Americans who have personally suffered under Biden-Harris policies next to Trump at his appearances and letting their stories help him make the case.

Unlike highly energised rally attendees, the attention span of the low-information undecided or low-turnout voters who will decide the race is short. Only repeating a subject will convert them, a big challenge for the Trump campaign.

No presidential election has been even remotely like this one. It’s been a dizzying summer with unprecedented events. A marathon has turned into a sprint, leaving less time to create impressions and correct mistakes. The quality of each campaign matters a lot. The political talent of each nominee matters more.

The Wall Street Journal

Karl Rove twice masterminded the election of George W. Bush to the White House