The big work trends for next year

We’re in the middle of a revolution, but it’s not just about WFH. Here’s a look at some of the big trends to watch for in 2024.

The Big Trends. Picture:iStock

Four years after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, it’s clear that there has been a revolution in the way we work – but not all of it is due to the coronavirus that forced workers back to their kitchens and transformed the way companies use and view digital tools. While that live experiment in remote working permanently changed the practices and processes of employees and employers, some of the big trends of 2023 came from other sources, most dramatically from technology, demography and the climate. Those factors will continue to have a big impact on our working lives – whether we go into the office or stay at home.

Here’s a look at some of the big trends to watch for in 2024.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AI, and especially generative AI, has pushed aside all those debates about working from home and sucked oxygen out of the broader workplace conversation. In just 12 months since Chat GPT was launched on an unsuspecting world, the need to understand and embrace artificial intelligence has become the new business orthodoxy. As fearful as some may be about job losses, no one can ignore the incredible potential to change work practices, analyse data and release workers from tedious, repetitive tasks. There will be losers but the winners will be those companies that figure out how to link their smart people with this smart tech.

The jury is out, but can we hope that AI will finally deliver the productivity dividend we’ve been waiting for?

KPMG partner Dorothy Hisgrove says the integration of AI and automation will be increasingly disruptive and HR leaders will need to take a lead role in helping organisations incorporate it in the workplace. And while AI will unlock creativity and innovation, we will need good governance and a commitment to navigating the risks and ethics of AI and the impact of augmented reality on employees.

AI is a huge economic driver but as it becomes part of the landscape, allowing us to gather and analyse even more data, the cybersecurity threat can only increase.

Ashurst partner in technology and cyber, John Macpherson, told a recent briefing that while data used to be seen as an opportunity, it’s now being assessed as a business risk, with companies managing a huge “regulatory uplift.”

AI is changing our assumptions about man versus machine at a time when companies, emerging from Covid-19, are thinking about their business models. Jon Williams, of Fifth Frame Consulting, says many are “zero basing”.

“After the past few turbulent years – with shifts in business models, cost and supply-chain blowouts and changing customer expectations – it seems to be time to revisit operating models and organisation design,” he says.

“The best businesses aren’t tinkering with their existing model (like the old 10 per cent headcount reductions), they are starting from scratch and redesigning how they deliver from a zero base.” AI in one form or another is surely front and centre in that discussion.

HYBRID WORK

Jon Williams says 2024 will be the year of “getting the band back together” as the reality sets in about the complexities of remote work.

Says Williams: “Whether it’s executive teams or extended leadership groups, after a number of years it seems time to get people together face-to-face for strategy and alignment sessions. Off sites, away days, love-ins – call them what you will, they’re back. Meetings online are fine for teams but not across different teams. Your regular online meeting with your tribe can be a friendly and productive place, but with a whole bunch of people from another area it suddenly becomes much less so. In-person meetings are required to build the relationships that allow online to work.”

The reassessment of the work-from-home phenomenon is likely to gather pace in 2024 with more concern about productivity. But the decentralised workplace will not disappear any time soon, even as bigger companies insist on three or four days in the office. As author Bernard Marr wrote in Forbes recently: “Remote working was a necessity for many of us during the Covid-19 pandemic. Today, we might choose it because we prefer the benefits it brings to work/life balance, or we’re more productive without wasting time (and money) commuting. Or because we want to leverage the ability to build a truly globalised and decentralised workforce. In 2024, more of us will choose hybrid working arrangements, combining the collaborative and cultural benefits of face-to-face co-working with the flexibility of remote working.” Even if more of us spend more time in the office, the remote revolution has had an impact on power structures. Expect even more kickback against hierarchical styles of leadership as tech also flattens structures.

DEMOGRAPHY

Global changes to birthrates over recent decades has left the West with a shortage of younger workers which, combined with the baby boomers who can’t afford to or don’t want to retire, is creating a mix of generations in many workplaces. It can be an enriching experience for all – even if the twenty-somethings in your office refuse to make a phone call and the older ones decline to use a spreadsheet. But striking the right management approach for a generationally diverse staff will be as important as getting it right on gender and ethnic and cultural diversity. Indeed, the issues around an ageing working population will likely take centre stage after years of focus on diversity and inclusion and equal opportunity for women. Those battles are not over, but increasingly will be seen in the broader context of finding workers with the right skills and aptitude for rapidly evolving digital workplaces – and figuring out how to design jobs that make the most of different demands, driven by people of different ages at different stages of their careers. (D&I may not have peaked, but may face reassessment as companies try to strike the right balance in hiring policies.) A shortage of skills – a gap not easily filled by migration – means those who can sell “solutions” mixing bots and ­humans will be sought after by big businesses.

PLANET & PURPOSE

The workforce might be ageing, but it is younger people who are forcing cultural change on companies with demands they be explicit about their purpose, a purpose that goes beyond profit and worries about people as well as the planet. At stake for employers who shrug off these demands to build sustainable businesses is the ability to attract talent – although cost-of-living pressures will shift the equation with pay becoming increasingly important. But with the pressure to be “good” as well as “green” coming from customers as well, companies can’t avoid the cultural shifts within capitalism. Jon Williams says the “Who are we?” question will be big next year: “The disjointed past few years have left many CEOs feeling they’ve lost their sense of what their organisation is and what it stands for. Expect lots of activity in the purpose, vision, values and organisational culture space aimed at making sure they are aligned to the emerging needs and expectations of customers.”

Investors too are now looking for proof that companies have factored in climate change at the same time that government and regulatory authorities are moving against “greenwashing”. With increased rules on companies’ disclosure about their practices and increased opportunity for third parties to take firms to court over compliance, Ashurst’s Tony Hill, partner and practice group head Australia, Planning Access and Environment, expects to see companies under increased pressure in 2024. Whether it’s about the planet or values, the “purpose” concept is now embedded in management thinking, especially in bigger companies which see it as vital in recruitment.

HIRING & FIRING

Employers will increasingly hire for skills, not on-paper qualifications, according to specialised recruiter Robert Half whose executives say the job market is “recalibrating after a few years of rampant hiring which has tipped the scales in favour of an employer-driven landscape”. Candidates simply don’t have the leverage of recent years, even with unemployment at record low levels. The move away from formal tertiary qualifications comes as tech and generative AI reshape work. Robert Half reports that “74 per cent of employers are not too concerned if a candidate doesn’t have the required certifications when assessing them for a role … possessing specific skills is often more indicative of an individual’s ability to contribute effectively to the workplace”. The recruiter argues that employers are happy to explore different hiring ­avenues, including reintroducing retirees back into the workforce to meet shortages. Other trends, driven largely by women, are towards more job-sharing at senior levels and pressure on bosses to promote part-time workers to the top jobs and redesign work to accommodate them. While churn remains an issue for many companies “The Great Resignation” is over as workers respond to economic fears. Holding on and angling for a moderate pay rise, more days off or more discounted services and products, is a more practical career option for many. But while employees may have reduced ability to switch jobs if they are disaffected, they can still resort to “quiet quitting” or choose to define themselves as a “lazy girl” who rejects the hustle culture in favour of “undemanding, decently paid middle-management jobs where the breaks are long, and the stakes are non-existent”, as reporter Geordie Gray wrote this year. A return to a nine-to-five culture is impossible and probably unwanted by many employees who enjoy the freedom to work when they choose. But the push-back against the need to be always available to your boss and colleagues on your mobile device is likely to increase and likely to get legislative backing, ­according to Workplace Editor Ewin Hannan. The right-to-disconnect is part of a broader shift in industrial regulations. Watch for more as the crossbenchers in federal parliament eschew ideology and engineer change.

SAFETY & WELLNESS

It used to be about physical safety but companies are now also charged with providing safe psychological spaces for workers. The personal is now part of professional life with employers required to comply with legislation that places responsibility on employers to proactively ensure safety at work. The government’s Respect @ Work laws which came into force this week go well past existing rules on sexual harassment, bullying and other forms of discrimination. The alcohol bans by some companies at work-related events this year is testament to the pressure they are under to ensure there is no #MeToo episode on their watch. The push – largely from women – to call out and deal with sexist behaviour has morphed into a much broader requirement for companies to not only allow people to “bring their whole selves” to work but to make sure they are protected when they do. Talk of work-life balance seems strangely dated since Covid brought the two spheres even closer together and “wellness” moved from a leisure-time pursuit to the office. Employers might once have argued that mental and physical fitness are an individual responsibility but that train left years ago. These days, people like KPMG’s Hisgrove are alert to the “employee fatigue” generated by “relentless change”. The focus is on “educating managers on fatigue drivers – equipping them to detect hotspots before major problems arise; building psychological safety into teams … and creating an environment that supports a ‘speak up’ culture with candid and open conversations about workplace issues.” If that sounds Utopian, most companies have got the message about happy workers being better for business. Bernard Marr wrote in Forbes that just as companies understand that “customer experience is key to developing lifelong relationships and generating recurring business … they are starting to understand the importance of ensuring that workers are satisfied across the board rather than just adequately remunerated”. He says this includes intellectual challenge and personal growth and development: while skills training is crucial for both employers and employees, it’s not enough to satisfy a generation looking for gym memberships, childcare concession and mental health therapies as part of the work deal.

MOVING TO THE COUNTRY?

The jury is out on this one, but the trend of younger people moving to the regions to live and work has some time to play out still. Covid-19 lockdowns saw many people head to the hills with their laptops in the back seat but companies are now cracking down on employees they haven’t seen since early 2020. But with housing so much cheaper in country centres than in most capital cities, the economics of remaking your life in a rural centre, like Orange and Newcastle in NSW, or Ballarat in Victoria, or Townsville, Toowoomba, Bundaberg and Rockhampton in Queensland, are seductive. For some, the country is about getting back to nature, a return to “localism” and a disaffection with the scale and intensity of cities. But data sourced by online removalist booking platform Muval shows money has become the main driver behind moves, with 35 per cent of 2023 relocations prompted by a desire to cut the cost of living. Muval says that’s a three-fold increase “and in stark contrast to the main reason Australians moved in 2022, which was to upgrade their home”. Its recent survey found a quarter of Australians would move if they were offered a $50,000 pay rise. Technology underpins this mobility and regional and rural towns stand to be winners from an influx of IT and professional workers after decades of country kids leaving the farm for the city.