Census shindigs a festival of fun for statisticians

I'm all aflutter with the Christmas spirit. Yes, that's right, Christmas. In August. Or in August every five years, to be precise.

Census 2011

JINGLE bells. Jingle bells. Jingle all the way. Oh what fun it is to ride in a . . . Oh, hello, you caught me mid-song. I'm all aflutter with the Christmas spirit. Yes, that's right, Christmas. In August. Or in August every five years, to be precise.

I'm talking about the demographer's Christmas, the census. That's right, next Tuesday is census night.

It's the night that all good demographers and all statistically inclined elves have been dreaming about since 2006.

What goodies will the 2011 census hold, do you think? I cannot wait to see what's in each package.

What proportion of the workforce do you suppose is now fly-in, fly-out? This was never an issue five years ago but it certainly is the toy that now has every demographer talking. Will the census crown Karratha as this nation's FIFO capital? Who knows? We'll have to wait and see. Just five more sleeps.

But there is both ecstasy and agony to the demographer's Christmas.

Yes, demographers do experience ecstasy -- but it is an ecstasy that mostly applies to the statistically inclined. It is the ecstasy of being able to work with voluminous, accurate and pure data following five years of, let's be frank, abstinence.

But there is also an agony to the demographer's Christmas and it is this: personal and household information might be collected next Tuesday but no one is able to open the presents and multiply and divide -- frolic, really -- among the numbers until the middle of next year.

Not to worry. Demographers are a hardy lot. Give them a copy of Australian Life Tables to thumb through and they'll wait. And wait. Although with up to 40 per cent of the 2011 census forms likely to be completed online, perhaps the wait between collection and the aptly named "release" will be briefer.

But then Australian demographers really are spoiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics when it comes to the quality and quantity of data provided. Consider the plight of American, British and Chinese demographers, who have to wait ten years between censuses to have their carnal data lust sated.

And I might add that their censuses are always shallow and brief affairs: there were just 10 questions in the 2010 US census. Ten! How can you get to know a community in ten questions?

I'm sorry but I need more than age, marital status and racial heritage. I need to know about education, skill levels, internet usage and the propensity to volunteer. And I need to know this at least once every five years.

I hate to admit this but if I couldn't have the real thing -- the census -- at least twice a decade, I think I'd be tempted by a survey.

I know. I know. A survey is nimble and cost-effective and can be conducted at, ahem, any desired time. But it's not the same. A survey is a sample; it's fleeting; it leaves doubt. Only the census offers the complete data experience.

But then there are censuses and there are censuses. Happily, the Australian census is the real deal. More than 50 questions on everything we need to know about modern life.

I especially like the question on religion. Did you know that at the last census the NSW town of Coonamble was the most devout community in Australia: more than 94 per cent of residents believed in a god of some sort.

The most godless town, or at least one of the most godless communities in Australia, was -- perhaps predictably -- the hippie hotspot of Byron Bay, where just 54 per cent of locals described themselves as believers. Clearly there is a road to Damascus in Australia: it connects Byron Bay with Coonamble and it offers both redemption and pleasant picnic spots along the way.

And shouldn't religious ministers appointed to Byron Bay get a hardship loading because of the heretical predisposition of the locals?

If I was a religious minister, I'd angle for a Coonamble posting. I could slack off on the job and Sunday mass would still be overflowing.

The Japanese have the right idea. Not only do they have a census every five years, they go one step further. Gather around my statistically inclined elves for I have a tale to tell that will widen your eyes. The Japanese celebrate what is known as National Statistics Day every October 18.

And do you know what the Japanese do on National Statistics Day? They celebrate all things statistical. Yes, they do!

Apparently on this special day, government departments hold public lectures and there are "competitions to showcase the nation's best statistical charts". Yes, a beauty pageant for statistical representation.

Well, now you know where I'll be this October 18. I'll be ogling bar charts and random statistical diagrams at the Tokyo Convention Centre. What will you losers be doing?

I might add that the Japanese are relative latecomers to the joy of a national statistics day, which was initiated in 1973: Poland has had just such a day since 1918. Australia, as usual, lags on such matters.

Come on Julia, forget the carbon tax and use August 9 to declare a national statistics day for Australia. Let's show those Japanese a thing or two about bar charts.

The Demographer's Christmas, the census, is vital not just for data geeks like myself -- it underpins the efficient allocation of resources in both the public and private sectors.

Support the ABS and make sure you accurately fill out the census next Tuesday. And as you do, be aware that you are participating in, ahem, a full statistical experience.

KPMG Partner Bernard Salt is the author of The Big Tilt

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