Absent anti-vaxxer Novak Djokovic ‘won’t hit TV ratings’

Advertising industry leaders say surging Omicron cases are likely to have a bigger impact on Australian Open ratings than the possible absence of the defending champion.

Novak Djokovic in the 2021 Australian Open men's singles final in Melbourne. Picture: AFP

An Australian Open without defending champion Novak Djokovic is “not ideal”, but unlikely to have a material impact on ratings or advertising revenue, according to industry leaders.

Spinach Advertising general manager Ben Willee said that while the loss of the top seed, on top of the absence this year of six-time winner Roger Federer, would be a blow for organisers, advertisers and tournament broadcaster the Nine Network would only be concerned if it impacted ratings.

“They’re affected by a whole host of factors, and usually the single biggest impact is whether you’ve got an Aussie who gets a long way through,” Mr Willee said.

“I don’t think the potential loss of Novak is a disaster. It’s not ideal … because everybody loves to have someone to hate. That’s what makes great reality TV. It’s a shame if the villain won’t be there.”

He said the surge in Covid cases was likely to have a much bigger impact, and would in fact boost ratings. “People will take a conservative approach to going out and doing stuff, and if you’re not out, you’re staring at a screen, so there’s a very strong chance that, year on year, ratings will be up.

“Sponsorship of an event like the Aus Open is a long-term game, and you’ve got to take a five-year approach. I think sponsors will be a little bit disappointed, but it won’t be a major factor in their decision-making process. There are always different impacts.

“The other thing is that the ad market has been running really hot in the back half of 2021. Broadcasters will be hoping that continues and, while the economic recovery remains strong, one anti-vaxxer tennis player isn’t going to have an impact.”

Mumbrella head of content Damian Francis said the Djokovic controversy will have served to “create a bit more interest” around the Australian Open.

“Yes, Federer’s not coming and Djokovic might be out, but Rafael Nadal is still playing, and he’s one of the three who can go for that record 21st grand slam, so there’s … still a big reason to watch,” he said.

He agreed surging Omicron cases were likely to help ratings.

Group M general manager of investment, Claire Butterworth, said she didn’t believe Djokovic’s absence would have a “seismic impact” on ratings or advertising revenue. “The great thing about tennis is that top seeds and big names do align to ratings to some extent, but … you can’t underestimate the power of the underdog … and audiences getting behind them.”

University of Melbourne marketing lecturer Brent Coker said he believed the absence of stars such as Djokovic and Federer could have a negative impact.

“There appears to be a difference between the federal government and the Victorian government on the benefits of having Djokovic here,” Dr Coker said. “Clearly, the Victorian government wouldn’t have tried to facilitate him coming if they didn’t think his absence was going to have a negative impact on the event and the revenue it generates for the local economy.”