Ukraine war: Joe Biden blundered when US vetoed Poland’s offer of MiG fighter jets

Poland offered MiG fighter jets to Ukraine but the US vetoed the idea, giving Russia air control. Above, a MIG at a Moscow show. Picture: Bloomberg.

When European markets closed for the weekend, shares were up about 1 per cent. Institutions were comforted by the American and UK pronouncements that Ukraine was going to win and their optimistic sentiments were backed by others in Europe. This was great news for markets and the world.

But the markets did not understand that President Joe Biden had made a dangerous decision that signalled to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that he would be allowed to control the air in Ukraine.

As a result, Putin is now not only likely to “win” Ukraine but markets must brace for an emboldened Putin looking to seek more conquests, so creating widespread and prolonged fear in ­Europe.

I am not a defence expert so I spent long hours over the weekend with a number of my trusted defence advisers, including Air Power Australia and others.

They explained to me in the strongest possible terms that, as a result of Biden’s decision to cede Ukrainian air control to the Russians, the danger of a European war leading to a world conflict is now greater than it has been since World War II.

Australia now has close connections with the US and its allies. We need to help mobilise those allies to explain to President Biden the likely consequences of his error. To explain, I need to take you back to the beginning of the ­conflict.

When Putin was detailing his plan to China’s President Xi Jinping at the Beijing Winter Olympics, he believed that Russia’s military might would quickly overrun Ukraine.

Putin did not realise the determination of the Ukraine people, their well-trained army and the fact that NATO would supply them with weapons.

Worse still, Putin sent to Ukraine a large number of poorly trained reservists and the Russian communications and food supply systems broke down.

The West supplied deadly anti-tank weapons, surface-to-air missiles and highly successful Turkish drones. These inflicted heavy casualties on the Russians, particularly the poorly trained reservists. And the captured Russian weapons enabled Ukraine’s stock of arms to be possibly greater than it was at the at the start of the war.

China sensed that Putin was in trouble and President Xi had discussions with both the French and German leaders. China was moving towards a mediation role. Putin responded with the nuclear threat, gambling that Biden, under pressure, would cede air control. Putin knew that if he had control of the air he could, if necessary, bomb Ukraine back to the Stone Age and win.

Poland realised that if Putin won in Ukraine it was a potential target, so offered Ukraine some 55 MiG jets (provided the US replaced them) to prevent Russia controlling the air. But America vetoed the supply on the basis that it might provoke a much wider war. Poland realised that any sign of “Chamberlain-style” US weakness made Poland and Europe’s position far more perilous – that’s why it offered the planes.

The US has now effectively signalled to Putin that America is prepared let him win. The US signal also means that once Putin has finished with Ukraine, he will be able to use the Ukraine devastation and the US unreliability to invade other non-NATO countries, possibly without strong resistance. There are juicy non-NATO targets in the Baltic and countries like Moldova. And then it would be Poland’s turn.

Defence experts around the world are stunned that America, having given Ukraine some of the most sophisticated ground-based and drone weapons in existence, would then not allow them air cover. Ukraine on its own does not have sufficient power. There was no point in giving those land weapons without air cover because in modern wars, no matter how strong the army is on the ground, it will almost certainly lose if its opponents control the air.

Many members of the US Congress realise that Biden has almost done “an Afghanistan” in supplying weapons to fight Russia but and then being too scared to stay the distance and allow Mig jets to be sent to Ukraine.

Regular readers will remember my March 1 commentary, when Russian-born Den Burkyin explained that ruthless Russian troops would surround the populations in many towns and begin a blockade that prevents food, water, power and another essentials from coming into such towns – exactly what the Germans did in the 1940s to Leningrad, now called St Petersburg. Putin is following the Nazi pattern in selected Ukraine towns. With air control he can now starve those towns because food can’t be dropped.

Alternatively, once cities are destroyed via bombs Russia may send ruthless fighters from Syria and Chechnya to carve up the survivors. President Biden will be blamed.

Putin no longer needs a mediator, whether it be China or anyone else. And once Putin has won Ukraine he believes his mates in Germany and Hungary will be anxious to restore relations. Sanctions will fade. Air Power Australia, one of Australia’s top defence analysts, has issued an extreme risk rating for a World War III-style battle ahead.

Meanwhile markets need to understand that there is now a much greater degree of risk than there was a few days ago.