Victoria lockdown the lesser of two evils, says SEEK chief executive Andrew Bassat
One of the nation’s most successful and respected chief executives has warned of the devastating consequences of a third lockdown in Victoria.
One of the nation’s most successful and respected chief executives has warned of the devastating consequences of a third lockdown in Victoria if the state’s economy is opened too quickly, describing the prolonging of current restrictions to control the second wave of COVID-19 infections as “the lesser of two evils”.
SEEK chief executive Andrew Bassat said while Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews would be the first to admit mistakes had been made in the government’s COVID-19 response, highlighted by the hotel quarantine and contact tracing issues, the Premier was “acting on the data and science that tells him the likelihood of a third lockdown is X if we lift restrictions too soon, and trying to second-guess those decisions without the science or data seems harsh”.
“What some people are forgetting in the very strong criticism of the government is the really difficult situation we are in. I believe the Premier is absolutely trying to act in the best interests of the state in a ‘lesser of two evils’ scenario and this has been lost in the pile-on,” Mr Bassat told The Australian on Tuesday.
“If the virus gets out of control again we will likely go into a third lockdown, which to my mind would have even more awful consequences than the impact of this one dragging on for a bit longer.”
KPMG analysis has shown the Victorian economy will shrink by up to 20 per cent on pre-pandemic levels because of its extended restrictions and business shutdowns, with new modelling showing the hit to the state in the September quarter could be as much as $6bn.
On Monday CSL, BHP and Wesfarmers urged the Victorian government to lift what some called the “wartime” curfew on Melbourne, warning that the continued lockdown would cause irreparable damage to the community and economy.
BHP chairman Ken Mackenzie said that as the Victorian government worked on its recovery roadmap, there was an opportunity to revisit its modelling and adopt a risk-based approach to easing restrictions.
Mr Andrews has declared Melbourne will remain under strict lockdown until late October, with a curfew in place until there is an average of fewer than five new cases daily over a fortnight and fewer than five cases in total with an unknown source. “This lockdown is absolutely awful from a business and social impact point of view but a third lockdown would be even more devastating,” Mr Bassat said.
“What some are forgetting in their criticism is that there is no easy choice here. If you release the shackles too soon, you risk the virus getting out of control again. And from there it kills many people and likely requires another lockdown in any case. I don’t know too many people who are in favour of no restrictions. We are just debating the extent of those restrictions and the risk/reward of going softer versus harder.”
Billionaire property developer Max Beck and fruit and vegetable king Frank Costa have previously supported the Victorian government’s approach to the COVID-19 crisis.
More broadly Mr Bassat said the national economy had picked up outside Victoria from the depths to which it plunged in March.
“I am speaking in general and looking at data such as job recovery which has been solid, but I am aware that the impact continues to be absolutely devastating for industries like hospitality and tourism. In other states, it has bounced back reasonably well from lockdowns,’’ he said.
But he reiterated his concerns about the lack of new business investment across the economy, especially in the wake of COVID-19.
“The public company environment is getting harder, not easier. It is getting riskier to take risks and much simpler for companies to just give back profits in dividends instead,’’ he said.
“I would love, for example, to see dividend imputation reviewed because it encourages companies to give back money to shareholders. Relative to competitors overseas many of our companies are underinvesting in growth with profound implications for prosperity and employment in this country.”
Mr Bassat backed the Business Council of Australia’s calls for next month’s federal budget to stimulate business investment, including direct incentives.