Every year The Australian’s John Durie asks some of the biggest names in Australian business five key questions about what’s coming in the year ahead.
Here, in his own words, is what Credit Suisse’s Richard Gibb sees ahead in 2020.
Read more from the CEO Survey.
How is your company affected by low-interest rates and what is needed to boost the economy?
The most direct immediate impact is on our clients and their ability to generate adequate returns and income. We have considerable experience in working with clients in low rate environments. We’ve had negative rates in our home market of Switzerland for almost five years (where despite this the bond market has returned over 12 per cent YTD). Taking into account these headwinds, we still forecast that the Australian economy will grow by 2.8 per cent in 2020. However, this assumes fiscal stimulus measures, including new infrastructure spending, will be introduced to boost activity.
What is the impact of government regulations on your company, including those applying to the financial sector?
We support all regulation that protects clients and consumers, and we devote considerable effort to ensuring that our conduct and ethics standards are well understood across the entire organisation. There is no doubt that the pressures on the financial sector are significant; the concern is that over time these pressures translate into a negative impact on business confidence and economic growth.
What percentage of company revenues are spent on research and development, and how is your company using technology to improve performance?
While we do not disclose the amounts we spend on R&D, rapid technological change is affecting every part of our business. Specifically, we are looking at a range of new technologies – both for our own business and as investment opportunities for our clients – including process automation, AI and machine learning (where we are excited about the next generation of our Advanced Execution trading services), big data and distributed ledgers. We are also rapidly evolving the technology interface with our Private Banking clients, increasing both functionality and access to round the clock global investment and trading opportunities, most recently via our CS Chat service on our PB APAC App.
What are the three major policy issues facing the country and what should be done about them?
By far, the most substantial issue facing all of us is climate change and sustainability, and its broad range of associated impacts – including the environment, the economy, energy prices and innovations and solutions. We are fortunate in that Credit Suisse is at the forefront of environmental, social and governance research in Australia and ESG/Impact Investing globally. The ESG thematic will continue to be significant for markets, clients, corporates, boards and investors in 2020 and beyond.
Another emerging issue will be privacy and data usage and ownership as our world continues to digitise. This could get greater prominence in the year ahead, particularly as personal financial services business flows towards non-banks and technology firms.
What are the major impediments to long-term growth facing your company and what can, or is, being done about them?
A central role for our firm is to facilitate global capital flows, in and out of Australia. Protectionism, trade tensions and related political pressures have the potential to dampen and distort those flows. They also have the potential to have a significant and long-term impact on our global relationships – whether it be with our traditional strategic partners and/or our major trade partners. Expect more debate in 2020 around how Australia balances its position in the world.