The Victorian COVID-19 outbreak has wreaked havoc not only with business confidence but also the National Cabinet’s zeal for productivity reform.
As business lines up to present its wishlist to the federal government ahead of the October 6 budget, the word from Canberra is don’t expect too much.
This doesn’t mean business will get nothing. But hope of a generational change in reform, based on a promise made back in May, is finished.
Victoria and its direct issues like aged care are priority No. 1 for the National Cabinet.
The unanimity evident two months ago on national reform is gone as individual states act on their own interests on issues like border closures.
The weight of issues is shown by the growing to do list for Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
The media code of conduct due for release this week now appears set to be delayed a week.
The Treasurer has had the draft ACCC water report on his desk since the start of July and even though it is only a draft report with the final not due until December, it has yet to see the light of day.’
A decision is also pending on FIRB’s recommendation to clear the $600 million Mengniu acquisition of Lion Dairy. That was handed to Frydenberg early in July.
When asked about the timing of coming decisions Canberra insiders urge patience saying Frydenberg has a lot on his plate.
Victoria’s problems compound the macro economic recovery plans which affects just about everything else and is dominating the Treasurer’s time.
When the reform movement was strong, the BCA established a group of working parties to recommend reforms and help government with ideas and backing.
But the concept of 14 groups each with 10 recommendations was waved off in Canberra and instead former COVID-19 Commission member Catherine Tanna presented six ideas for consideration.
These included industrial relations reform, investment incentives and skills training, all of which have a chance of success.
Productivity reform doesn’t always cost money but it does require negotiations between the states and the federal government.
But the unity ticket on display two months ago is gone, with Victorian Premier Dan Andrews fighting to save his own job. As his own credibility has sunk, what was a powerful voice in favour of reform has gone.
The strong link between NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet and Victorian Treasurer Tim Pallas remains, but as a force for reform much diminishes with Perrottet now under attack from naysayers saying he should stop talking and start doing.’
None of which gives those looking for reform a lot of hope.
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