Joe Biden will call time on the JSF

The F-35 Lighting II, better known as the joint strike fighter. Picture: AFP

For Australia the biggest legacy of the Donald Trump presidency, apart from the China change, has been his appointment of clear thinking rational defence chiefs. They replaced a group of US defence public servants that had made serious mistakes and so were in constant denial. They let the US fall behind in many aspects of defence technology – particularly air power.

I have no doubt that under President Biden there will be no going back to the old days and, although he will never admit it, he will be thankful for the Trump administration change.

And of course it’s no surprise to anyone who has been studying defence over the last decade or two that an early decision of the new US defence administration has been to gradually limit the role of the joint strike fighter or F-35 as it has come to be known.

On the surface that’s a disaster for Australia because our air defence is based on the F-35/joint strike fighter. But the US is merely facing realty and it’s a decision that should have been made six years ago.

There has been no announcement that actually ends the F-35/joint strike fighter. It will be a slow demise. But it’s started. According to Times of Israel reports, Israel has been in principle offered the brilliant but out of production aircraft, the F-22. The F-22 will be enhanced with some of the very clever and advanced software that has been developed for the JSF. That offer to Israel of the F-22 has to be approved by Congress which will be a significant decision for the new Biden administration. We need to urgently get in the queue.

But the JSF’s slow death will proceed anyway.

In Australia the Wentworth Report has revealed that the Pentagon 2020 budget includes buying 80F-15s over the next three years with the potential to go to 400. Every F-15 bought means that one less F-35 will be built.

The F-15 can carry up to 22 air-to-air missiles, while the JSF/F-35 is limited to four. The F-15 can reliably be expected to get in the air every day of the week, while the JSF/F-35 might be able to fly every second day. But the F-15 is an old aircraft and does not deliver air superiority. It is a stop gap.

The second part of the JSF/F-35 long term death warrant is a $62 billion ten-year, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity fixed-price-incentive contract for new production of F-16 fighter aircraft.

I gain no satisfaction from being right in predicting the JSF/F-35 disaster. But it’s important to set out just how long our defence chiefs have been in denial because, to retain US respect, Australia will have to go through the same defence management revolution as the US.

And that will require us to also re-evaluate the submarine mess which horrifies the Americans.

I describe my coverage of the JSF/F-35 disaster not to brag but to show how out of touch our defence chiefs have been for the last 12 years. We have had a long succession of defence ministers but none of them came to grips with the fundamental errors that were being made in Australia’s air defence.

I am no defence expert but I chose the right advisor: AirPower Australia lead by Peter Goon. Their work was far in advance of the defence department.

I started on the subject around 2008 when writing for businessspectator.com.au which was later purchased by News, publisher of The Australian.

The early articles showed how there was no way JSF could be delivered by 2012 — one of the first silly claims by defence chiefs. But their most stupid claim was to quote the cost of the JSF aircraft without the engine.

With Air Power’s help I was able to explain to readers why the JSF/F-35 would not deliver its promise – a low cost highly manoeuvrable aircraft that would deliver air superiority for Australia in the region. I made a submission in April 2014 to the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade but the politicians believed the defence chiefs rather than the journalist. .

But as each year went by the situation got worse. I got no satisfaction from being right and, in fact I failed, because Australian defence chiefs kept their heads in the sand. The change came from the US and we have to thank President Trump for that. The Wentworth report neatly summarises some of the failings which have been concealed from the Australian parliament and public.

The ability to supercruise a criterion for an aircraft to be labelled as ‘5th generation’. America’s F-22 and the Russia’s Su-35 can supercruise as can Sweden’s Gripen E. The JSF/F-35 cannot.

A high instantaneous turn rate improves a fighter’s chance of dodging an incoming missile. The F-16 actually outturns the JSF/F-35

A nail in the JSF/F-35 coffin was hammered in two weeks ago when its ‘Joint Simulation Test” was delayed yet again. The aircraft has to pass this test to be declared for full rate production. Otherwise the project is killed off and no more JSF/F-35’s are produced. The test should have been completed by 2017.