It was inevitable that in the final weeks of the 45th US presidency, Donald Trump would make a decision that had wide global ramifications. And that decision could have a major impact on Australia’s air defence.
There has been no official announcement, but the Times of Israel is reporting that the Trump administration has approved the sale of its advanced stealth aircraft, the F-22, to Israel. That decision came after Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu protested strongly about the sale of joint strike fighters (F-35s) to the United Arab Emirates.
As Trump well knows, under US law he is not allowed to sell the F-22 to any other country, so any offer made in the 45th presidency will need to be ratified not only by the 46th president but by the House of Representatives as well.
To understand the global significance of this in-principle offer to Israel, it is necessary to link it to the Australian experience.
Back in the reign of prime minister Robert Menzies, Australia purchased the F-111 from the US and attained regional air superiority. It was a brilliant decision.
The Howard government believed the F-111s were coming to the end of their useful life and wanted to repeat the F-111 success and so entered into the US’s ambitious project to create a Joint Strike Fighter, later named the F-35.
As confirmed by Tony Abbott when he became prime minister, the aim of the F-35 aircraft was to maintain air superiority in the region. The US contracted much of the parts development and production to Australian enterprises, so the project provided economic value. But as a way of achieving air superiority, it has been a total disaster. The JSF has a brilliant technology system that enables it to warn other aircraft of impending danger, but simply can’t fly high enough or fast enough to match the modern aircraft that have been developed by Russia and China. Indonesia is buying a vast fleet of Russian aircraft and in time will have air superiority over Australia. We will depend on the US and the F-22. The US, itself, has maintained its superiority in the region via the F-22 but it’s an aircraft that is now ageing and needs updating.
Originally the US planned to build more than 700 F-22s, but in 2011 it stopped production at just over 180 because of cost and the fact that Russia was in decline.
Moreover, at that stage, US defence chiefs believed that the JSF would continue US air superiority and could be produced at a much lower cost.
The F-22 still remains one of the most lethal aircraft in the world. Sadly for Australia, our defence chiefs have never publicly recognised the underlying problems of the JSF and the fact it would not deliver the air superiority we thought we were going to achieve.
Australia’s premier defence analytic team, AirPower Australia, put a proposal to senior US defence officials and those in Israel that the best features of the JSF technology systems could be incorporated into a revamped F-22.
Fortunately, the basic components for manufacturing the F-22 were mothballed rather than destroyed. And modern technology means the aircraft can be rebuilt at a much lower cost than in the early days.
Not surprisingly it is a revamped “Australian proposal” that is now on the table for Israel.
While Australia does not officially recognise the problems of the JSF, Canada has done a detailed analysis and has pulled out. Japan made a similar analysis and is developing its own stealth fighter.
Japan is believed to have put forward the “Australian proposal” that the best of the JSF be incorporated in the revamped F-22, but it was not accepted by the US. But the US has been reviewing its total defence situation and discovered that too much effort and money has been spent in the wars in the Middle East and not enough in matching the giant technology strides that are been made by Russia and China.
Australian defence officials have constantly stated that the US is not prepared to sell the F-22 to Australia or any other country and that it is too expensive. If the offer to Israel is confirmed by the US House of Representatives, it breaks down the first barrier. At the same time, the cost barrier has been substantially reduced.
It is vital for the nation that we actually recognise the JSF’s problems and put our hand up for an F-22 that incorporates some of the brilliant JSF technology.
If we can achieve that goal, it will transform the air defence of Australia are and make us a much safer nation. The first hurdle is the US election and then there are lots of hurdles in congress. But the decision is so sensible that it may appeal to both parties. And the Democrats will be reminded that back in the Clinton presidency they approved the sale to Israel of the F-22. But under the Bush administration it lapsed.
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