How to repair the damage from Covid mistakes

Illustration: Johannes Leak

It must have been agonising for NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to concede that her “Claytons” lockdown had failed against the Delta variant of Covid-19.

And to make it worse, that meant that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and the other states were right and therefore NSW was wrong.

Worse still, Prime Minister Scott Morrison foolishly supported the flawed Berejiklian strategy and that, combined with the Commonwealth government’s vaccine failures, means he is receiving a well-deserved drubbing in the opinion polls.

However as I set out below, it is not all bad news and indeed Australia now has a very good chance of a much better 2022.

Sadly the only way to counter this version of the virus was a hard lockdown.

Accordingly Berejiklian has introduced a NSW version of the Victorian hard lockdown which attempts to take into account the more isolated community situation in NSW. If that fails then she must simply duplicate the Victorian strategies. Either way rectifying the past mistake will not be quick and the suffering will be severe.

Victoria has shown the danger of the Delta variant as the virus spread from the MCG to rural areas and that experience is being duplicated around the world, led by the US.

While there is much gnashing of teeth and criticism plus severe blows for business and individuals, the NSW decision is actually good longer-term news for the nation.

Rather than admitting error, NSW could have pursued its flawed “Claytons” lockdown mistake for an even longer period or, worse still, “let her rip”. Both decisions would have meant massive infection rates and the requirement of all other states to stop complete movement of all people and goods from NSW.

An agonising choice for NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: Getty Images

The bad news is that because NSW took so long to act it faces an extended lockdown and the sheer spread of the virus in Victoria, although it locked down early, means it still won’t be an easy task to control the virus.

But there is new sense of Victorian community optimism because the professionalism now being shown is in stark contrast to what happened last year.

Now for the nation. Scott Morrison has got to stop appearing to play state politics (that may not have been his intention) and get on with being prime minister of the country, based in Canberra not Sydney.

Morrison and health minister Greg Hunt have clear tasks --- vaccinate everyone who wants vaccination and be honest about what is happening, including admitting mistakes. Carry out the task professionally and take the community with you. Success or failure in those tasks will determine whether the Coalition has any chance of a third term and whether Australia can limit the damage of the current outbreaks and likely future 2021 outbreaks.

Widespread vaccination involves a series of “virus tasks” for the PM and Greg Hunt:

* When the medical authorities stopped recommending the AstraZeneca vaccine to younger people they equated the blood clotting risks against the then minimal risk of young people becoming infected with the virus. The Delta variant means young people are now far more likely to suffer serious long-term consequences from being infected than they are from blood clotting. The Prime Minister can’t reverse that advice but he must find a clear a way for the AstraZeneca vaccine to be recommended to young people, subject to GP advice.

Scott Morrison needs to set firm targets and his credibility will be matched against his performance. Picture: Getty Images)

* Come September and October large amounts of the Pfizer vaccine will be available and hopefully much greater vaccination rates will be achieved. But the September and October logistics operation will require the most sophisticated vaccine distribution operation that the country has ever seen. The Commonwealth government is very inefficient and does not know how to work with states outside NSW so it is possible Morrison and Hunt will fail or be seen to fail, so business should be on the alert for an Albanese government.

The logistics are complex because not only must vaccine be supplied in huge quantities to the existing state government centres but also to the GPs, pharmacies, big employers and others who can be enlisted.

By the end of October every person who wants to be vaccinated should have received at least one dose. By the end of the year every Australian who wants to be vaccinated should have been vaccinated and have documentation to prove it.

* The Prime Minister from Canberra needs to set firm targets and his credibility will be matched against his performance.

* Once everybody who wants a vaccine has received two injections then all lockdowns and restrictions must end. That should be announced now so business can plan.

* A vaccination passport will be required to go to events airlines and restaurants and other specified places. That will be the new normal for Australia in 2022.

People who are vaccinated might still be infected but their symptoms will be manageable and/or will not exist,

Those who choose not to vaccinate will require our sympathy and hospital treatment but it was their democratic choice.

Overseas travel is going to take longer, so vast areas of the Australian population will be cashed up and willing to spend locally.

As I pointed out at the weekend every business should prepare a 2022 marketing strategy that consumers find attractive.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will need to establish policies to keep some businesses surviving but whatever he does must be totally consistent with each state. He needs to work jointly with the Victorian and NSW premiers so it’s an agreed program.

And he will have the knowledge that assuming his prime minister and the health minister deliver there is actually an end game this time ---let’s call it the Boxing Day test.