Newspoll: Coalition, PM marked down as vaccine frustration builds
The Coalition slumps to its lowest position this term, with voters losing confidence in Scott Morrison’s handling of the pandemic.
The federal Coalition has slumped to its lowest electoral position this term amid Covid lockdowns in two states and growing community frustration over the vaccine rollout, with voters losing confidence in Scott Morrison’s management of the pandemic.
A Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian shows popular support for the Coalition and Labor now deadlocked at 39 per cent respectively as the Prime Minister’s net approval rating slid to its lowest level since the 2019-20 summer bushfire crisis.
With the Morrison government under sustained political attack from Labor premiers attempting to link the vaccine rollout to the lockdowns in Victoria and NSW, the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen two points to 39 per cent. Federal Labor’s primary vote rose by the same amount over the same three-week period leading to a four-point shift in the estimated two-party-preferred vote to 53-47 in favour of Labor.
While the parties were deadlocked at 39 per cent in March at the height of the Liberal Party’s women crisis, the two party preferred vote split didn’t go beyond 52-48.
The latest result, calculated on underlying primary vote rather than rounded results, represents the worst result for the Coalition this term and would lead to a significant defeat for the Morrison government if replicated at an election. It comes as satisfaction with Mr Morrison’s handling of the pandemic fell nine points in the past three weeks to 52 per cent, having reached 85 per cent at the height of the pandemic in April last year. Confidence in the federal government’s management of the vaccine rollout has also hit negative territory for the first time, with just 40 per cent believing it was being handled satisfactorily.
The Newspoll showed a significant eight-point shift in overall satisfaction with Mr Morrison’s leadership, with a four-point fall to 51 per cent in those satisfied. A four-point rise to 45 per cent in those claiming to be dissatisfied leaves the Prime Minister with a net approval rating of plus six.
At the height of the pandemic Mr Morrison enjoyed a net approval rating of plus 41.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese was also marked down, with a two-point fall in satisfaction to 38 per cent and a single point rise to 46 per cent in dissatisfaction, resulting in a net negative performance rating of minus eight.
Mr Morrison had a two-point fall in the head-to-head contest but remains 18 points clear of his rival as the preferred prime minister on 51 per cent compared to an unchanged position for Mr Albanese on 33 per cent.
The swing to Labor on primary vote came in part at the expense of the Greens, which fell a point to a low of 10 per cent, while the Coalition also lost ground to other minor parties which rose a point to 9 per cent. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party remained stable at 3 per cent.
With pandemic incumbency having been a strength for the government, the latest result will unsettle Coalition MPs. It represents an 18-point fall on handling of the coronavirus since April 24 this year when the government maintained a 43 percentage point net positive rating. This has now fallen to plus seven in a result heavily split along party lines.
The level of satisfaction in the government’s handling of the vaccine rollout has fallen in the past three weeks. In April, 53 per cent claimed to be satisfied compared to 43 per cent claiming otherwise. This fell to 50 per cent and 46 respectively in late June before hitting 40 per cent and 57 per cent in the latest poll. The result reflects a significant split along party lines with 62 per cent of Coalition voters satisfied compared with just 27 per cent of Labor voters.
The Newspoll was conducted from July 14-17 and polled 1506 voters across metropolitan and regional areas.
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