AstraZeneca co-creator Sarah Gilbert delivers chilling warning for unvaccinated

Professor Sarah Gilbert says the Delta variant is “going to reach everybody who is not vaccinated”. Picture: Oxford University

The co-creator of the AstraZeneca vaccine, Professor Sarah Gilbert, was in June given a standing ovation at Wimbledon for her contribution to the global fight against Covid-19.

But this week, on ABC TV’s 7.30, she personally delivered a chilling warning to Australians who remain unvaccinated when we reach the “80 per cent” target.

The Gilbert warning will also impact all employers, those who have been vaccinated, the hospital system and indeed the entire Australian community and its economy.

If Professor Gilbert is right then prepare for a world that Australia has never experienced before.

The Gilbert warning came in two sentences: “With the Delta variant, which is spreading so rapidly, it’s going to reach everybody who is not vaccinated.” I invite my readers to re-read that sentence and think of the implications before reading the next Gilbert alert.

It will “also reach those people who are vaccinated and even if they then get infected, they tend to have a much milder disease. They are protected against hospitalisation”.

All of us will come to our own conclusions about the implications of those two Gilbert sentences but here are mine:

●● While all the unvaccinated will be “reached” by the virus not all will be infected, but given the power of the Delta variant a great many will. The percentage of the population that are vulnerable is higher than 20 per cent because the “80 per cent target” does not include children aged under 16.

● There is no way our hospital systems could cope with the national disaster that looks likely to result from the Gilbert scenario.

● It’s true that the vast majority of vaccinated people will avoid hospitalisation if they catch the virus but they will still be very anxious to avoid it because often it is not a pleasant experience. Those without a vaccination certificate will be seen as walking time­bombs to be avoided by the vaccinated.

● A big proportion of the vaccinated majority will not enter work sites where unvaccinated co-employees have been allowed to enter. Those with medical reasons for non-vaccination may need to find jobs where they can work from home.

● Similarly, whether it be a supermarket, cafe, pub, bank, aircraft, public transport or sporting contests, cinemas and theatres, the vaccinated will require an assurance from those operating the premises or means of travel that when the vaccinated enter there will be no unvaccinated people present. The unvaccinated may need to spend much of their time at home. There will be protests.

● When the horror facing the unvaccinated becomes known and if the hospitals fail to cope, it will, of course, cause vaccination rates to rise to very high levels among those who can be vaccinated.

● Although the 80 per cent figure does not include children aged under 16, we are extending vaccinations to those aged over 12 and will almost certainly vaccinate 10-year olds and above. As I understand it the problem with vaccinating children at low age levels is that there has not been enough testing done. That becomes a very urgent priority, although it seems children who are infected have a much lower hospitalisation rate than adults.

● In Australia we are checking the results of easily undertaken saliva testing placed in inexpensive, small apparatuses to determine results. These tests can be undertaken in homes and establishments by anyone with a minimum of training, including parents and officials at event entrances, who are also checking for “bombs”. If these saliva and similar tests that give results in under 20 seconds prove successful, then a new way of living will open.

● The hospitalisation horrors that are likely in NSW and Victoria following the lowering of business restrictions will cause those states with low infection rates to reconsider opening their borders. That will almost certainly apply to Western Australia and Tasmania and probably Queensland. Certainly only the vaccinated will be allowed to enter those states and they may also be required to undertake regular quick testing.

A dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine being prepared for a patient. Picture: Getty Images

I fully recognise that many of my readers will say the above scenarios go too far and I certainly hope they are right. But Professor Gilbert is one of the world’s leading Covid-19 vaccination researchers and the vaccine she developed is proving to be as good as its rivals in most areas, and in terms of long life, looks to be superior.

I don’t believe her warnings were simply to boost AstraZeneca vaccination rates, but rather to help prepare the Australian community for what could be ahead.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews may have different views on most issues but both have been very clear in delivering warnings to the unvaccinated that are not inconsistent with the above scenarios.

The general view among economists and the sharemarket is that we will see a quick rebound of the economy in the first quarter of 2022.

But that’s when the implied horrors of the Gilbert warning are likely to become most apparent, so the rebound might be slower than markets are anticipating.

Some regional areas of Australia are now achieving vaccination rates well above 90 per cent and Australia is going to need that rate of vaccination to return to some form of normality.

Footnote: I am fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca.