All states shedding jobs, ABS payroll data shows

Every state and territory shed jobs in late September in a worrying sign the path back to full employment will be a long one.

A commuter wearing a face mask at Town Hall Station in Sydney. Picture: James Gourley

Every state and territory shed jobs in late September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday, in a worrying sign the path back to full employment will be a long one.

The total number of payroll jobs fell almost 1 per cent in the last two weeks of September, ranging from a 1.2 per cent drop in the Northern Territory to a 0.7 per cent decline in South Australia, despite both jurisdictions’ having ended their lockdown restrictions months ago.

“Nationally, payroll jobs remain 4.1 per cent lower than mid-March; 7.7 per cent lower in Victoria and 2.8 per cent lower in the rest of Australia,” said Bjorn Jarvis, head of Labour Statistics at the ABS.

The tax office’s payroll system had 440,000 fewer jobs on October 3 than it had in March, the ABS said.

Only three of the 19 industries tracked by the ABS has more jobs than in March: financial services, public administration and health and social assistance.

Separately, global rating giant S&P on Tuesday reaffirmed its AAA credit rating for Australian government, but warned it could issue a downgrade within the next two years if the government’s budget targets aren’t met.

“A high level of external and household indebtedness remains a key vulnerability to the economy and rating,” the agency said, forecasting net debt of state and federal governments together would rise from 16 per cent last year as a share of GDP to 42 per cent by 2023.

“We could lower our ratings within the next two years if the COVID-19 outbreak causes economic and fiscal damage that is more prolonged than what we currently expect,” the agency, which has rated Australia at AAA since 2003, said.

“We expect general government deficits to peak at 14 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2021 before narrowing, and net general government debt to reach more than 40 per cent of GDP by fiscal 2023,” it added.

The news on employment follows a less than expected rise in the jobless rate to 6.9 per cent in September from a month earlier, which had pointed to a lower peak in the unemployment rate than 8 per cent by December, which the government had forecast in the budget.

“The fall in payroll jobs in late September was seen across all groups of people aged over 20, with an increase in jobs during this period limited to those under 20,” Mr Jarvis said.

S&P in its latest assessment of the government’s rating has forecast a peak in unemployment of 7.4 per cent later this year, ahead of a gradual decline to 5.7 per cent by 2023.