The $466m-odd offer for Superloop from rival Aussie Broadband has been rejected by its targets board, yet will it pay the $1.05 to $1.15 that industry participants think it is worth to get a deal across the line?
The business has been in the sights of rivals before and only recently went head-to-head in a takeover tussle with its now suitor Aussie Broadband for Symbio, which was purchased by the latter for around $260m.
As announced on Monday, Aussie Broadband, advised by Goldman Sachs, submitted a proposal to buy the Luminis Partners and Barrenjoey-advised Superloop for 0.21 Aussie Broadband share for each Superloop share held.
Based on the last closing price of Aussie Broadband shares, $4.53, it implies a price of 95c per share, which the company says is too low.
The suitor says the offer is a 33.2 per cent premium over three months and would create a scale player in Australia, with more than 1 million subscribers, a greater reach and network infrastructure, along with brands in Aussie Broadband, Superloop and Exetel.
Complicating matters for another suitor to come forward is that the $1.3bn Aussie Broadband has purchased a 19.9 per cent stake in Superloop as part of its approach.
Superloop was founded by Queensland tech tycoon Bevan Slattery, who stepped down as chairman in 2021 and sold his holding of about 25 per cent.
The business provides connectivity services, design services, and constructs and operates networks throughout the Asia Pacific region, so strong synergies exist between the two companies.
Superloop needs to add to its growth prospects and its own organic growth, and had been tipped to make acquisitions itself.
Symbio would have been ideal, given the synergies and the cash it could generate.
Deals are happening at a time that groups are benefiting from the NBN Special Access Undertaking, where repricing of the regulatory framework creates greater cost for accessing lower speed broadband, but a cheaper framework for higher speed broadband.
One expert says that one outside chance is an energy company bidding for Superloop, given AGL Energy and Origin Energy are the group’s biggest wholesale customers.
They would be buying a fully integrated NBN platform for their retail energy businesses, helping them to retain more customers.
Perhaps Macquarie, which owns Vocus Group, enters the ring.
DataRoom reported in 2018 that QIC was running the ruler over Brisbane-based Superloop before it came forward with a bid, but the talks ended in 2019 over QIC’s $1.95 a share offer.
Brookfield has also looked at it in the past.
However, since that time, it has sold and bought assets and also pivoted from infrastructure, where it was tough to make money, to become more of a retail service provider, which is now its core area of business.