IAG report warns on effects of climate change

One of the key risks identified in the report is tropical cyclones travelling further south with higher intensity.

‘Urgent need for Australia to prepare for climate change and adapt to it’. Picture: Sky News Weather

The nation will be buffeted by rising sea levels and an increase in the intensity and frequency of bushfire and cyclone risks as a result of higher temperatures, according to a report by Australia’s largest general insurer IAG.

The report, a collaboration between IAG and the US Center for Atmospheric Research, includes the latest data on the state of the climate and predictions on extreme weather events based on a range of warming scenarios of up to 3 degrees from pre-industrial times.

IAG chief executive Peter Harmer said there was an urgent need for Australia to prepare for climate change and adapt to it.

Insurance Australia Group chief executive Peter Harmer. Picture: Hollie Adams

“Each year we are confronted globally with extreme weather events that become natural disasters,” Mr Harmer said.

“This report shows that our climate is changing more rapidly than some have predicted, so it is critical there is a co-ordinated national approach from governments, industries and businesses to build more resilient communities and reduce the impact of disasters.”

READ MORE: Melbourne protests: Activists take to Rio Tinto offices | Big miners get serious about tackling climate change

One of the key risks identified in the report is tropical cyclones travelling further south with higher intensity.

It predicts that southeast Queensland and northeast NSW will start to experience greater devastation from strong winds and torrential rain due to cyclones.

IAG executive manager natural perils Mark Leplastrier said these regions were densely populated, and greater investment was required to protect them and reduce the financial and physical burden as the climate warmed.

“With the annual economic cost of natural disaster predicted to hit $39bn by 2050, we need to invest more as a nation to better protect communities,” Mr Leplastrier said.

“This includes adequate land planning and building codes to ensure our infrastructure is able to withstand extreme weather, especially for cyclone and flood-prone regions.”

In its assessment of the state of the climate, the report says variability is an intrinsic part of the climate system.

However, the warming since the 1950s could not be explained by natural processes alone, with human activities seen by scientists as “extremely likely” — equivalent to a 95-100 per cent likelihood — to be the dominant cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century.

The report cites research concluding that a rapid decrease in carbon emissions must occur in the near future to limit global warming to the range of 1.5-2 degrees in the December 2015 Paris agreement.

But it says there is little evidence that major emitters are willing to adopt measures that will achieve this level of abatement.

In the meantime, bushfire risk was likely to increase in almost all states, leading to more frequent episodes of extreme heat and longer fire seasons, particularly in southeast Australia.

Regions in NSW and Victoria were likely to be impacted by more damaging hail of 2cm or more, including areas between Hunter River south through to the southern NSW highlands, as well as central and eastern Victoria.

Intense rainfall was expected to increase almost everywhere in Australia, resulting in more frequent flooding in urban areas and in small river catchments.

Finally, sea levels were rising around the country, increasing the risk of flooded coastal systems, building and infrastructure.

“Sea level rise is expected to accelerate around the Australian coastline but at differing rates,” the report says.

“It is notable that past assessments of sea level rise are lower than those that recent observations show.

“Sea level rise will contribute substantially to escalating impacts from storm surge.

“The greenhouse gases that are already present will cause sea level rises to continue well into the next century, even if there are significant emission reductions globally through the coming decade.”