Amid boardroom showdown, Bubs is quietly finding its mojo again with is shares soaring more than 30pc

Agribusiness deal-maker David Williams is rolling up his sleeves to help turn under-siege Bubs around.

Agribusiness deal-maker David Williams is eyeing potential global opportunities for Bubs, talking up the Indian and Indonesian markets, after the under-siege infant formula brand appointed him to complete a strategic review of its operations.

Mr Williams – who has been recruited alongside corporate restructuring specialist McGrathNicol to complete the review – has been tasked with “exploring all options” to help turn Bubs around. While he is yet to present any recommendations to Bubs, he has been advocating more geographic diversification across Australia’s broader agribusiness sector.

Bubs is gaining traction on this score, with its burgeoning US businesses recording its first $1m a month on Amazon’s American site in May, sending its shares soaring more than 31 per cent on Wednesday.

But its China business is in the doldrums following the pandemic-fuelled collapse of the daigou or reseller market.

It comes as Bubs founder Kristy Carr and a group of dissident shareholders – representing 5 per cent of the register – are calling for a board spill after she was sacked as chief executive last month.

Bubs chair Katrina Rathie has cited the company’s failed China strategy as one of the triggers for the sackings of her predecessor, Dennis Lin, and Ms Carr.

Revenue from China in the three months to March 31 dived 57 per cent to $2.6m compared with the previous corresponding period. Bubs now forecasts full-year China revenue of $13.5m to $13.8m versus last year’s $53.6m.

Mr Williams – who is known best for engineering the deal that returned Vegemite to Australian ownership via Bega Cheese’s $460m of Mondelez’s grocery business – says Australian businesses have been too focused on wooing Beijing.

David Williams has a reputation for masterminding the biggest deals across Australia’s agribusiness sector. Picture: Arsineh Houspian

At The Australian Global Food Forum last month, he talked up export opportunities in India and Indonesia, saying many executives had largely forgotten those markets.

While Mr Williams has been advocating for geographic diversification across Australia’s broader agribusiness sector, his appointment to Bubs fuelled concerns he was preparing the company for a sale.

But Mr Williams – who edged out UBS, Citi and Bell Potter to work on Bubs’ review – said he had a track record of growing businesses including Tassal, which he bought out of receivership in the mid-2000s before floating it on the ASX.

“I’m not here to sell anything,” Mr Williams said. “I’m here first and foremost to support the board in terms of their rigorous thinking about how to grow this business.”

But Mr Lin, who is currently in Chile with his family and is also calling for a board spill – cited Mr Williams’ reputation for masterminding key agribusiness deals such as Canadian seafood giant Cooke’s $1.7bn takeover of Tassal last year.

Bubs’ share price has plummeted about 70 per cent in the past year, giving it a market value of $136m and making it vulnerable to a takeover.

“You have to be naturally concerned about that,” Mr Lin said. “I know quite a few shareholders who would be wanting to see a lot more value – myself included – before we actually entertain that path.”

And Mr Williams sees export value across the subcontinent and South-East Asia.

The Indian infant formula market is worth about $US5.4bn ($7.97bn), according to IMARC Group, and is expected to grow to $US8.1bn by 2028.

The Indonesian market is of similar value, currently worth $US5.72bn and expected to hit $US9.9bn by 2028, according to Coherent Market Insights.

This compares with $US12.24bn for China’s infant formula market, which is expected to grow at more than 7 per cent a year until 2027. But Beijing’s relationship with Canberra has been tense in the past three years since former prime minister Scott Morrison spearheaded an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19, sparking a fiery response from China’s communist government.

Although the relationship is thawing, billions of dollars of trade was wiped out after Beijing banned or slapped tariffs on Australian production from barley and beef to wine and lobster.

“Part of the reason we’re in this problem is because for the last five years every politician has driven up to China to kiss babies and forgotten completely about what’s happening in Indonesia and India,” Mr Williams told the global food forum.