BusinessNow: Live coverage of financial markets and companies, plus analysis and opinion
As BHP’s shares dip below $20, there are predictions iron ore is set to plunge.
- A DJs headache for Coles, Woolies
- Costello’s warning to govt
- Iron ore set to plunge?
- Retail sales, capex miss expectations
- BHP shares sink below $20
- Future Fund posts worst result since 2012
- Macquarie in $85m raise for Industria REIT
Welcome to the BusinessNow blog for September 1. The Aussie dollar is treading water, energy and mining companies are weighing on the ASX, and the Future Fund has posted its worst result since 2012.
8.04pm: Battling it out over Harvey Norman
Bulls and bears are digging in their heels on Harvey Norman, but the bulls appear to have the upper hand after stronger-than-expected results from the retailer this week, David Rogers writes.
Credit Suisse cut its rating on the stock to “underperform” from “neutral” yesterday, while raising its 12-month price target to $4.97 from $4.70. Deutsche Bank and UBS meanwhile reiterated their “buy” ratings, with Deutsche now projecting a rise to $6 a share versus yesterday’s close at $5.33.
With the market expecting a fully-franked dividend yield of 5.3 per cent for Harvey Norman in the year ahead, a share price rise to $6 would be music to investor’s ears. But the consensus price target is close to $5, and if the bears are right a share price fall could offset the dividend. Read more.
7.23pm: British manufacturing rebounds
British manufacturing activity rebounded in August following a July slump, according to a survey released on Thursday, one of the strongest signals yet that the UK economy is bearing up well following voters’ shock decision to leave the European Union.
Financial information firm IHS Markit said its closely watched purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector rose to 53.3 in August from 48.3 in July, the joint-largest month-to-month jump in 25 years. Read more.
7.05pm:Cash bleeds from European funds
Money has flowed out of European stock funds every week for more than six months, a stretch that is longer than the previous record set during the financial crisis.
Few see the negative flows abating soon, with earnings weak, banks struggling across the Continent and the political landscape in flux.
Flows were negative for the 29 weeks through August 24, according to data tracker EPFR Global. That marks a record since the company began collecting this data in 2002 and eclipses the 27-week run of outflows that ended in February 2008.
The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down 6.1 per cent this year, compared with a gain of 6.2 per cent for the S&P 500. Wall Street Journal.
6.32pm: A bank scandal in the making?
If you want to know how well or badly behaved bankers are these days, ask the eminence grise of rogue traders what he thinks. The answer is not encouraging.
“The way I see it, you’d almost have to retire everyone who works in the City of London today. Absolutely all of them would have to go and then you’d have to bring in a whole new set of people that you can force a culture on. You need a blank sheet of paper,” says Nick Leeson, who despite modern imitators still has the distinction of single-handedly bankrupting a bank.
Mr Leeson’s view is apparently shared by many compliance officers, whose role is to act as the internal police of the banking industry. The Barings rogue trader said that at one recent London lecture he gave to compliance heads, a flock of hands shot up when he asked if their firms still suffered from rogue-trading incidents. Read more.
5.57pm:Apple cuts supplier prices, orders
As Apple Inc grapples with falling iPhone sales this year, it is pushing to cut better deals for parts with its suppliers, while carriers in the crucial China market have mobilised to push iPhone sales with deep discounts.
In recent months, Apple suppliers say the Cupertino, California-based, company has told them to accept price cuts for parts destined for the next-generation iPhone while cutting forecasts for order volume. This is likely to hurt some suppliers’ earnings in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, in the past two weeks, China Telecom Corp has started selling unlocked 16-gigabyte iPhone 6s models for 4,288 yuan ($US642), based on checks at its retail outlets. That is below a price of 5,288 yuan listed on Apple’s China website. Read more.
4.59pm:Elon Musk’s cash squeeze
Two pillars of Elon Musk’s empire are facing financial crunches as the entrepreneur seeks to combine the two companies through a controversial acquisition.
Tesla Motors Inc, which makes electric cars, disclosed in a securities filing on Wednesday that it has to pay $US422 million to its bondholders in the third quarter, and that it will raise additional money by the end of the year. The purpose of the additional capital, among other things, is to support its proposed merger with home-solar company SolarCity Corp. Mr Musk is the chairman of both companies.
The filing also revealed that in recent weeks, 15 institutional investors passed on either acquiring SolarCity or injecting equity into it. The company is having difficulty tapping the public markets amid the proposed merger and is facing a liquidity squeeze, the filing indicated. SolarCity’s cash declined to $US146 million on June 30, from $US421 million a year earlier, the company has reported. Read more.
4.20pm:Mining, energy stocks drag ASX lower
The local sharemarket has closed firmly in the red, as significant falls by mining and energy heavyweights pulled the bourse into negative territory.
It came after oil prices fell overnight on news of a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories, which led to weakness in energy stocks on Wall Street. That trend was followed on the local market.
At the 4.15pm (AEST) official market close, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index had slipped 17.4 points, or 0.32 per cent, to 5,415.6 points. The broader All Ordinaries index was down 18.2 points, or 0.33 per cent, at 5,511.2.
BHP Billiton was one of the worst performers of the day, down 2.94 per cent to $19.83, while Rio Tinto was 1.41 per cent weaker at $46.91.
Daniel Palmer
4.05pm:A David Jones headache for Coles, Woolies
David Jones’ foray into the high-end groceries market could be more of a headache for Coles and Woolworths than first thought.
As reported by The Australian’s Eli Greenblat on Monday, Woolworths of South Africa (not to be confused with the Aussie food retailer) is planning to make David Jones a new powerhouse in the premium food market after buying it for $2.2 billion back in 2014.
The problem for the incumbents is that it means they are now being squeezed from the top and the bottom, with Aldi growing rapidly and now holding the title of Australia’s most profitable supermarket.
Rating agency Moody’s pinpoints the problem by pointing out ‘less price sensitive’ customers are the ones still going to Coles and Woolies.
“The risk is that with supermarket operator Aldi already competing aggressively for low-to-middle-income consumers, David Jones’ targeting of high-income consumers will take away market share from Woolworths, Coles and independent supermarkets as competition increases at both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum,” Moody’s said.
Despite seeing a surge following its horror earnings result late last month – which was expected and came with some encouraging news for the future – Woolworths shares remain 2.6 per cent in the red for the year, compared with a 2.3 per cent rise from the ASX 200.
Wesfarmers, meanwhile has edged 2.2 per cent higher for the year.
So it’s not particularly fun times for the supermarkets.
3.52pm:Macau’s fortunes on the rise
Asian gaming hub Macau’s fortunes could be on the rise again after a 26-month slump in revenue from the region finally reversed, Sarah-Jane Tasker reports.
The latest revenue data will be welcome news for Australian casino billionaire James Packer, who recently reduced his stake in his Macau venture, Melco Crown Entertainment.
Data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau revealed today that gross gaming revenue in Macau rose 1.1 per cent to 18.8 billion patacas.
More to come
3.23pm:Wyatt Roy’s new gig
Former assistant minister for innovation Wyatt Roy has taken his first job post-politics, joining Sunrise host David Koch as an independent director of a proposed $55 million publicly listed fintech fund.
Mr Roy, who was dumped from his seat of Longman in the last election, settled on a role with H2Ocean where he’ll be paid $60,000 per year, and will hold 10,000 shares at the offer’s completion.
Read more
2.58pm:Woolies-Lowe’s bust up raises JV questions
One of the curious, and perhaps instructive, aspects of the disintegration of the relationship between Woolworths and its US joint venture partner in the Masters home improvement debacle is how what appears to be a conventional and iron-clad joint venture agreement has ended up in the courts.
Seven months after Lowe’s exercised an option to “put” its one-third interest in the joint-venture vehicle, Hydrox, to Woolworths, it has taken legal action seeking to have Hydrox liquidated.
That was its response to Woolworths’ announcement a week ago of a series of deals to exit the home improvement sector.
That could be tactical — an attempt to gain some leverage to extract a bigger payout from Woolworths — although there is also said to be an emotional tinge to Lowe’s stance.
Read Stephen Bartholomeusz’s full analysis
2.36pm:Costello’s warning to the government
Future Fund chairman Peter Costello today warned the Federal Government about stepping in too far to attack the banks, noting that “banks are critical to our financial stability”.
As John Durie reports, Costello was talking after unveiling a 4.8 per cent return for the fund for the last year and its inaugural 10-year return of 7.7 per cent.
The former Federal Treasurer also urged the government to make some ground on structural reform, saying “no-one ever talks about it but clearly monetary policy is exhausted and there is a need for some other policy action.”
Read more
2.20pm:China manufacturing stalls
The Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, a private gauge of nationwide factory activity, fell in August, still showing a stagnation, Caixin Media and research firm Markit said.
The index weakened to 50.0 from 50.6 in July, but remained above the 50 watershed for the second straight month.
Before July’s surprise jump, the index had shown activity shrinking each month from February 2015. The slightly lower PMI shows that China’s economy is still struggling to gain momentum after a raft of stimulus measures by the government to prop up growth.
Read more
2.00pm:Slash TV licence fees: Xenophon
Powerful independent senator Nick Xenophon has called for TV licence fees to be slashed after the Turnbull government tabled a landmark media reform bill.
As Jake Mitchell reports, Senator Xenophon, whose support could be crucial to the bill’s success, said Australia’s free-to-air licence fees were too high and any cut should be offset by a turnover tax on global digital giants such as Google, Facebook and Netflix.
Right now there is not a level playing field with Australian free-to-air broadcasters still copping the highest broadcast licence fees in the world while the likes of Google, Facebook and Netflix have a huge competitive advantage and are eating into the revenue of Australian TV broadcasters,” Mr Xenophon said.
Read more
1.37pm:Is iron ore about to tumble?
It’s not meant to be a popularity contest … But if it were, iron ore would be losing.
Iron ore has been dubbed “least favourite” of the major commodities by Clarksons Platou Securities analysts in New York as they review its supply profile for the next two years.
Last night saw the price of iron ore slip to a four-week low of $US58.97, but more worrying is that consensus estimates are for a price around $US48 by the end of the year and unchanged in mid-2017.
But the steelmaking commodity has surged 36 per cent so far this year, leaving analysts stunned as they expected another dark year for iron ore and investors keen on miners in the short term.
“We are optimistic on commodities in general into year-end due to better Chinese demand conditions amid years of under-investment,” Claksons Platou analyst Jemery Sussman said.
“With that said, iron ore is our least favourite commodity due to its supply profile over the next 24 months.”
Mr Sussman echoed the consensus numbers, saying iron ore was heading below $US48 a tonne as increasing supply offsets demand.
Aussie pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue is the ASX200’s third-best performer overall this year, gaining 160 per cent and presenting a glowing full-year profit result, debt reduction and credit rating upgrades from Fitch and Moody’s.
1.15pm:Just legal case reveals rewards for loyalty
The $2.5 million a year boss of Solomon Lew’s Just Group, Mark McInnes, has told the Victorian Supreme Court he is restrained from working for a competitor for half the period imposed on former chief financial officer Nicole Peck.
Mr McInnes said that in addition, Just’s owner, the ASX-listed Premier Investments (PMV), must pay him not to take a job at a rival — a benefit not enjoyed by Ms Peck.
He said he brought Ms Peck, who has since defected to bitter rival Cotton On, “out of the wilderness” by bringing her back to retail after a stint in the health industry.
Ben Butler
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12.40pm:AUD treads water after China data
The Australian dollar is struggling to maintain its intraday rise amid focus on China economic data.
China official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in August from 49.9 in July, stronger than a 49.8 rise expected by the market.
Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI for August subsequently fell to 50.0 vs 50.6 in July and 50.1 expected by the market.
AUD/USD rose from 0.7521 to 0.7548 after the official data but has since retreated to 0.7533.
12.22pm:Energy, mining stocks weigh on ASX
Aussie stocks have managed a modest bounce into lunch but hefty falls from resources stocks will likely see the ASX close in negative territory for the fifth time in six sessions.
At 12:15pm AEST the S&P/ASX 200 was 0.2 per cent weaker than yesterday’s close at 5419.5 points.
Mining and energy stocks continue to do the damage, with BHP dropping 3.1 per cent as it trades ex-dividend, while Rio Tinto loses 1.3 per cent and Woodside Petroleum slides 1.6 per cent.
Banks were mostly positive as ANZ and NAB both lift around 0.7 per cent, while Westpac was 0.4 per cent higher and CBA edges 0.1 per cent lower.
Energy names are peppering the worst-performers list, with Origin, Beach Energy and Western Areas all down more than 3.3 per cent.
On the positive side of things, Aconex has seen some buying after a rough August — it’s up 3.4 per cent — while GWA group is still benefiting from a strong profit result late last month, leading the index higher with a 3.8 per cent rise.
11.55am:Packer’s Vegas dream lives on
James Packer’s Las Vegas dream is not dead, according to the project’s top executive, who has hosed down rumours it is on hold.
Crown has had its sights on the global gaming hub since it announced in 2014 that a majority-owned subsidiary had acquired a 34.6-acre vacant site on the Las Vegas strip to develop the $2.5 billion Alon Las Vegas project.
Sarah-Jane Tasker
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11.40am:Retail sales, capex miss expectations
Retail sales were flat in July, against expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise in the month.
The unchanged reading on retail turnover came as household goods retail and department stores weighed, with declines of 0.7 per cent and 6.2 per cent for the month.
The weakness in these two sectors was offset by positive showings from food retailing, cafes and restaurants, and clothing, footwear and personal accessories retailing.
Meanwhile, private new capital expenditure fell 5.4 per cent in the June quarter versus the 4 per cent decline expected.
The Australian dollar initially dipped from US75.32c to US75.13c after the data was released, before rising to US75.41c.
Daniel Palmer, David Rogers
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11.30am:Retail sales miss expectations
Retail sales were unchanged in July, against expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise in the month.
More to come
11.05am:Capital city home prices weaken
Australia’s capital city property prices are outpacing regional areas, despite showing some signs of softness as new research shows that home values rose by 1.1 per cent across the country.
The CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index recorded a solid rise across the combined capital cities over August, while the performance of the combined regional areas, based on a one month lag, remained comparatively soft, with dwelling values virtually flat at over the month.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said that capital city prices had started to weaken but still remained ahead of regional areas.
Scott Murdoch
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10.42am:Oil and gas stocks whacked at open
Oil and gas stocks have been whacked at the open as a horror week rolls on for the price of Texas tea.
The price of WTI has slumped just under 6 per cent this week to $US44.83, while Brent is down 5.8 per cent to $47 as hopes of a supply pact at the next OPEC meeting are outweighed by stronger-than-expected US stockpiles numbers.
Beach Energy was the worst performer on the ASX 200 at the open, down 3.1 per cent, while Origin Energy fell 2.5 per cent, Western Areas gave up 2 per cent and Oil Search lost 1.9 per cent.
Woodside Petroleum dropped 1 per cent and Santos fell 1.6 per cent, while BHP Billiton fell 2.8 per cent at the open.
10.25am:BHP shares sink below $20
BHP Billiton has dropped another 3.2 per cent to $19.78 this morning as it trades ex-dividend, matching its dive yesterday.
Shares in the world’s biggest miner are now trading below $20 for the first time since August 5.
“BHP has now rallied over 50 per cent since the panic lows last December and the risk/reward is far from compelling at today’s prices,” MarketMatters.com.au said in a note yesterday.
“This week investors have taken the hammer to resource and gold stocks after comments from Jackson Hole last weekend implied interest rates may rise sooner rather than later in the US. This selling pressure makes sense but the Australian market seems yet again to be the worst performer on any good, or bad, news.”
10.04am:Future Fund posts worst result since 2012
Future Fund chairman Peter Costello has warned of rising investment risks and lower returns despite the nation’s sovereign wealth fund rebounding from its first quarterly loss in four years.
The fund posted its full-year results this morning, booking a steady 4.8 per cent year-on-year return thanks largely to a 4.6 per cent bounce in the final quarter.
It still fell short of the target return for the full year, which stands at a rate of 4.5 per cent plus inflation (around 5.5 per cent this year), with the result the weakest since fiscal 2012 when the European debt crisis damaged market confidence.
The Fund slightly reduced its cash holding from 22.9 per cent in the March quarter to 21.7 per cent. Its allocation to Australian equities rose from 6.3 to 6.5 per cent, while its allocations to developed and emerging markets were unchanged at 15.2 per cent and 7.3 per cent.
“We see prospective returns on risk at a lower level than in the immediate past years,” Future Fund Chairman Peter Costello said.
“We are also conscious that monetary authorities, having stimulated so much, have less flexibility now to respond to future weakness. Given this, we have less risk in the Future Fund than we would under more normal circumstances.
We keep our objective front of mind and are focused on both growing and protecting our capital in the long-term.”
Daniel Palmer, David Rogers
9.55am:Welcome to the Harvey Norman peak
Analysts are backing toward the exit of shining retailer Harvey Norman on concerns the company is reaching its peak of the cycle.
News of a 30 per cent year-on-year improvement in net profit and a much stronger-than-expected dividend in yesterday’s full-year result helped push the retailer’s stock to its highest level since February 2008 at $5.58.
The shares last traded 2.7 per cent higher at $5.38, which is almost 29 per cent above where it started the year.
But fiscal 2017 could represent the peak, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who say “earnings valuation looks expensive”.
“We believe HVN is a highly cyclical business operating nearer the top of the Australian housing cycle,” analysts led by Thomas Kierath said.
“With the Australian housing market expected to cool over the coming 12-18 months and the one-time impact from the Dick Smith store closures boosting FY16 / FY17 profitability, we think FY17 will represent the peak.”
Morgan Stanley certainly isn’t the only major firm showing caution on Harvey Norman, with Bloomberg data showing four ‘buy’ ratings, two ‘holds’ and seven ‘sell’ recommendations.
That said, UBS took the opportunity today to reiterate its ‘buy’ rating on the stock, saying it “sees further upside”.
9.47am:Macquarie in $85m raise for Industria REIT
Macquarie has launched an $85m raise for Industria REIT as the industrial landlord leans on shareholders to fund its latest acquisition.
The deal has been priced at $2.12, a .9 per cent discount to the last close.
Industria’s move to tap equity markets comes amid a frenetic period for the sector as low interest rates spur deal making and new listings as investors flock to the relatively high yields on offer from commercial real estate.
Under the terms of the deal, existing shareholders can participate in a 1 for 4 accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer that will account for $65.2m of the raise.
The remaining $19.8m will generated by an institutional placement.
Industria has sought the fresh funds to finance its $158.6m purchase of WesTrac’s sprawling industrial facility in New South Wales’ Hunter Valley region.
In total 40.1 million new securities will be issued with books on the institutional placement and entitlement offer, due to close at 4.30pm (AEST) this afternoon.
Gretchen Friemann
9.45am:ACCC launches action against VW
The local consumer watchdog has officially launched legal action against beleaguered car maker Volkswagen for alleged deceptive conduct in its diesel vehicle emission statements.
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said this morning it had started proceedings in the Federal Court in a bid to receive formal declarations of false representations as well as financial penalties and the issuance of corrective advertising.
Daniel Palmer
9.35am:Salter and Grollo in $1bn float
Real estate scion Lorenz Grollo and syndicator Paul Salter are accelerating plans to float a $1 billion hotel investment and development trust in what will be an unprecedented move into the listed hospitality sector.
The company, SB&G Hotel Fund — representing the Salter Brothers and Grollo — launched into the sector with the purchase of a $480m hotel portfolio, including the landmark Intercontinental Hotel in Melbourne, valued at $134m, last December.
The SB&G Hotel Fund is now offering investors the chance to invest into a new property fund focused solely on the Australian hotel accommodation sector, with a major IPO flagged as a potential exit strategy.
Ben Wilmot, Lisa Allen
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9.30am:Broker rating changes
Aurizon raised to Buy vs Hold — Shaw & Partners
Harvey Norman cut to Underperform vs Neutral — Credit Suisse
Independence Group raised to Neutral vs Underperform — Credit Suisse
9.15am:Lithium oversupply fears grow
Australia’s budding lithium industry is facing a new existential threat, with the world’s largest hard rock lithium mine poised to announce a major increase in supply.
The Australian understands that plans to double output from the big Greeenbushes lithium mine in WA’s southwest could be announced as early as next week, following the news that China’s Tianqi Lithium will build a $300 million lithium processing plant at Kwinana, south of Perth.
The looming expansion could add a significant amount of new volume to a lithium market that analysts already fear could be heading towards oversupply.
Paul Garvey
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9.00am:Holden imports turn a profit
Holden has revealed its importing business is profitable as it unveiled five new car brands, a new logo and advertising campaign that will underpin its relaunch following the closure of local manufacturing next year.
In a briefing at its Melbourne headquarters, Holden managing director Mark Bernhard said the company’s importing business made an after-tax profit of $128.1 million last year.
“It’s fair to say the importing business is subsidising the car-making business,” Mr Bernhard told reporters.
Damon Kitney
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8.20am:Another rough day at the office for the ASX
Aussie stocks look set for another nasty session after taking a pummelling yesterday as mining giants BHP Billiton (-3.2%), Rio Tinto (-2.7%) and Fortescue (-3.5%) slumped on the back of US dollar gains.
The local SPI200 is pointing to a 0.4 per cent fall at the open but fair value suggests it could be a bit worse than that.
The index has lost 1.5 per cent so far this week, which puts its on track for its worst Monday to Friday run since mid-June, to last trade at 5433 points.
BHP tanked 3.2 per cent yesterday, which more-than offset a 1.4 per cent jump from ANZ after a double upgrade from Morgan Stanley.
Worryingly, BHP’s ADRs point to another 2.3 per cent being wiped off the stock — a move that would take it below $20 for the first time in almost a month.
The price of iron ore slipped another 0.6 per cent overnight to $US58.97, while the price of West Texas crude oil dropped 3.3 per cent to $US44.81.
“The ASX in particular looks in for a rough day after commodities took a battering overnight with the Bloomberg Commodities Index falling by 1%. Even the Nikkei looks set for a flat open despite the USD/JPY gaining another 0.5%,” IG market analyst Angus Nicholson said.
7.05am:Australian market set to open lower
The Australian market looks set to open lower after Wall Street was dragged down by energy stocks and ahead of the upcoming key US jobs data due on Friday, which could provide clues on the timing of the next US official interest rate rise.
At 6.45am (AEST), the share price index was down 20 points at 5,390.
A tumble in oil prices weighed on stocks in the US and Europe.
Locally, in economic news on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the index of commodity prices for August while the Australia Bureau of Statistics releases the retail trade figures for July.
The Australian Industry Group’s performance of manufacturing (PMI) for August is also due out, as is the RPData Core Logic Home Value Index for the same month.
In Australia, the market yesterday fell as a higher US dollar hurt resources and energy stocks and investors were cautious ahead of the US jobs numbers.
The benchmark S & P/ASX200 index lost 45.3 points, or 0.83 per cent, at 5,433 points. The broader All Ordinaries index fell 44.1 points, or 0.79 per cent, at 5,529.4 points.
AAP
7.00am:Iron ore treads water
The iron ore price has held steady as Credit Suisse became the latest bank to caution that the commodity’s recent strength appears unsustainable.
Iron ore settled at $US59 a tonne overnight, according to The Steel Index, the same as in the previous session.
Read more
6.55am: Dollar rebounds
The Australian dollar has risen against the US dollar and the yen but is treading water with the euro. At 6.35am (AEST), the local unit was trading at US75.16 cents, up from US75.04 cents yesterday.
6.45am: Wall St weakens as oil prices tumble
US stocks slipped overnight (AEST), closing out what traders have described as an eerily calm August with slight monthly losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 53 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 18401. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2 per cent but still logged a monthly gain of 1 per cent.
Caution also reigned in Europe as falling oil prices hit commodities stocks.
The Australian share market is set to follow the downbeat global leads, with ASX futures 20 points lower at 6.25am (AEST).
Overnight, a tumble in the price of oil weighed on the broader market, after data showed US stockpiles of crude oil increased to another record. Still, traders described relatively few shares changing hands, as has been typical in recent weeks.
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