How airlines will get to net zero carbon emissions by 2050

Flying as we know it could change as airlines push to cut emissions in an effort some say will be as important as safety.

Qantas will buy 10 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel for use on flights from London, to reduce carbon emissions. Picture: Supplied

For travellers, the airline industry’s push to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 could change flying as we know it.

From the possibility of fewer flights to more expensive airfares, decarbonisation may be the best thing for the environment but perhaps not for long-haul travel.

Four engine A380s are set to be relegated to the history books alongside other popular models of aircraft, premium cabins may be ruled unsustainable and concepts such as the “joy flight” considered far too frivolous.

Airbus executive vice president of corporate affairs and sustainability, Julie Kitcher, confirmed an aircraft’s green credentials were now almost as important to airlines as safety.

Although costs would “need to be shared with passengers” she said the transition had many benefits for travellers from the work that was being done with air traffic control to limit flight delays to the aircraft themselves.

“It will mean more modern aircraft and all the benefits that brings in terms of comfort, the atmosphere in the cabins, the development of the filtration system, fuel efficiency,” Ms Kitcher said.

The price that passengers would pay for greener travel remained unclear but the size of the investment being made by the aviation industry suggested it could be considerable.

“We’re investing more than 2bn euros ($3.25bn) per annum on research and development, mainly towards sustainable technologies for sustainable aerospace,” Ms Kitcher said.

“It’s going to need a share from the airlines, from the passengers, from governments, from energy producers. We each need to take responsibility and accountability to get there.”

Although electric aircraft were unlikely to be an option in a country like Australia because of the vast distances involved in travel, hydrogen-powered planes were.

To that end Airbus was planning to have its first hydrogen-based aircraft into commercial service by 2035.

For now the emphasis was on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with Airbus and Qantas collaborating on the establishment of local production.

Qantas has ordered a dozen fuel efficient A350-1000s for its ultra long haul Project Sunrise flights due to start in 2026. Picture: James D. Morgan/Getty Images

A Queensland refinery using US company LanzaJet’s world-leading alcohol-to-jet technology was recently announced as the first to receive funding from a $200m kitty.

Bioenergy Australia chief executive Shahana McKenzie said the appetite for such projects was enormous.

“There’s been a significant shift in the level of interest in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) which is being viewed far more favourably by the current government as opposed to the former government,” said Ms McKenzie.

Made from agricultural waste, SAF is considered the main enabler for airlines to dramatically reduce carbon emissions, along with other alternative fuels such as hydrogen and ammonia.

Qantas has set a target of 10 per cent SAF in its fuel mix by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2050.

Without local production of SAF however, airlines may have to resort to importing the fuel despite the fact much of the raw material comes from Australia.

“If we are not producing sustainable aviation fuel domestically and we’re reliant on importing that fuel, it’s going to come at a price premium and that will have a considerable knock on effect,” Ms McKenzie said.

“If airlines can’t access that fuel at a good price, it will become more expensive to fly to Australia than it previously was and other jurisdictions will become more attractive options for global travel.”

Not everyone working towards net zero shared the belief SAF was the best option, including principal engineer and director Aviation H2, Helmut Mayer.

He said contrary to popular belief, SAF was not carbon free and it would be a challenge to make production economically viable or competitive with emerging fuels such as hydrogen or ammonia.

“In the industry, a view is forming that it is unlikely that SAF will establish itself as the fuel of choice between now and 2035, when clean technologies must be ready,” Dr Mayer said.

“At best, SAF will be a transitory fuel because the term ‘net zero’ will be replaced by ‘carbon negative’ in the next 10 to 15 years as economies around the world begin to re-evaluate what our decarbonisation goals should be post-2050.”

Electric aircraft were also fraught with problems because of the weight of batteries and the huge amount of energy needed to power an A380 or Boeing 787.

“The future market will be built off multiple green propulsion solutions, such as the direct burn of liquid hydrogen, the use of hydrogen in fuel cells, the direct burn of ammonia, and other technologies,” said Dr Mayer.

“There is actually very little cost in offering ammonia alongside liquid hydrogen at airports.”

And perhaps most importantly, Dr Mayer said travellers would not notice any difference.

“I have a few colleagues who have described riding in a hydrogen bus as an anticlimax, because it felt exactly the same,” he said.

“Overall, we believe this is a good thing because once people realise there is no material difference, they will see achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 as a very achievable goal.”