‘Seen nothing like it’: How BoM’s El Nino prognostication created panic for Australia’s cattlemen

When the Bureau of Meteorology issued warnings of an El Nino event in 2023, spooked livestock producers flooded markets with their animals, resulting in prices cratering.

When the Bureau of Meteorology started issuing warnings of Australia entering into an El Nino event in 2023, spooked livestock producers flooded markets with their animals, resulting in prices cratering.

One 50-year veteran of the industry, Elders national livestock manager Peter Homann, hadn’t seen anything like it for a long time.

“(2023 was) bigger than the 1976 crash, it fell from such a high,” he said.

“At one point we had the dearest cattle in the world.”

The El Nino was officially called in September. An El Nino weather event results in very dry conditions, so presuming there would not be enough feed in their paddocks for their animals, farmers sold them on, and wouldn’t take others for agistment.

Elders national livestock manager Peter Homann. Picture: Zoe Phillips

The benchmark indicator for cattle, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator, sat as high as 1192c/kg carcass weight in 2022, but by late 2023 had tumbled all the way to 349c/kg cwt.

“We all thought it was a bit overpriced to be fair,” said Mr Homann. “But the constant talk of this impending El Nino … been in the job a long time but the whole business was unreal.

“This constant thing of El Nino, the whole job was ruled by the fear that the whole of Australia was going to turn into a desert, people were panic selling when it was raining and it was green.”

In the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’s final weekly report for the 2023, a 37 per cent drop was reported in prices for the 12 months to December 14.

The DAFF report indicates the resilience of the price after a handy autumn break, as decent rains are possible during El Nino events, despite farmers feeling left in the dark on the fact.

Bureau of Meteorology climate manager Dr Karl Broganza in October was reported as saying more education was needed to help farmers manage the weather event.

But the panic selling happened anyway. “Everything was about the impending El Nino, it was all people were talking about on the news. No science, just El Nino,” Mr Homann said.”

But despite the customary end-of-year drop in prices, there is optimism ahead as producers realise conditions are normal, he said.

“Now everyone is saying we’re looking at a normal farming autumn — people are saying it’s behind us. We know 2024 is going to be a good year for ag, a solid year,” Mr Homann said.

Hayden Walker, a private weather forecaster who uses different methodology (by monitoring solar flares and orbital patterns) to the BoM for weather forecasting, said his November forecasts were spot on.

“Well I had good rains coming in November for my clients, opposite to the BoM,” he said.

“It’s probably back to drawing board for them, but they’ll come back.”

The BoM continues to report an El Nino event, which is little solace to farmers who have bought and transported hay to green paddocks, but optimism is back up, according to Mr Homann.

“There’s a lot more enthusiasm and confidence right now, you’ll see cattle prices firming soon,” he said.

“People aren’t talking about weather now, they’re talking about opportunity.”