Agricultural export values to fall in 2024-25 despite improved seasonal outlook, says ABARES

Farmers can expect an improved 2025 financial year despite a forecast 4 per cent fall in the value of agricultural exports because of lower crop prices.

There are expectations of gross values in the agricultural sector to rise in 2024-25.

Despite expectations of an improved agricultural sector, export values are likely to take a $3bn hit in the 2025 financial year, reflecting lower exportable supply and continued global easing of crop prices.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences’ latest overview forecasts that the value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports will decline by 4 per cent to $73.1bn in 2024-25, down from $76.3bn in 2023-24.

However, ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said despite the fall in export value, the result “will still be the third highest on record”.

The science and economics research division of the federal government’s Department of Agriculture’s latest quarterly overview of the sector found most global crop prices would fall in the 2025 financial year, following declines in 2023–24, as supply improved – in particular oilseed and grain production, because of improving seasonal conditions.

Despite falling global crop prices, world sugar and rice prices were expected to remain above their 10-year averages in real terms, driven by higher global consumption.

Livestock and livestock product export values are expected to rise by $470m to $30.1bn in 2024-25 due to greater domestic production and higher global demand.

Global supply continues to improve, in particular oilseed and grain production.

Dr Greenville said ABARES expected an overall improvement in the agriculture sector following drier conditions in 2023-24.

He said a better seasonal outlook would result in gross values in the sector rise by 2 per cent from $87.6bn in 2023-24 – after falling from $100.2bn in 2022-23 – to $89.5bn in the 2025 financial year.

“Some cropping regions are currently experiencing dry conditions, but an expected improvement in seasonal conditions over winter, combined with improved livestock prices and production, will put Australian agriculture in a good position,” Dr Greenville said.

“Strong global demand for Australian livestock products will support an improvement in prices and production, with the gross value of Australian livestock production and livestock products forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $35.5bn in 2024-25.

“Despite lower prices resulting from higher global production, the value of crop production is expected to grow by 2 per cent to $48.1bn in 2024-25 on the back of higher production levels.”

Dr Greenville said ABARES was seeing continued growth in Australian’s horticulture sector, which was expected to be at a record high of $17.4bn, led by increases in fruit and nuts.

“The Australian Crop Report shows and a strong response from growers to changing market and seasonal conditions,” he said.

“The area to chickpeas is growing 79 per cent in response to recent Indian tariff reductions and a good start to the season in NSW and Queensland. The area for lentil plantings is also at a record 885,000ha.

“A lower exportable supply of grains and oilseeds in 2024-25 will, however, see the value of agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports decline by 4 per cent to $73.1bn in 2024-25.”

Dr Greenville said that at a farm level, improving seasonal conditions and higher livestock prices were expected to result in average broadacre farm cash incomes increase by $45,000 to $149,000 in 2024-25.

“The forecasts show Australian agriculture doing what it’s known for – being adaptable to seasonal conditions and able to respond to new market opportunities,” he said.