In Jerusalem, we wait for Tehran to play its hand
Israel calls Iran’s bluff, but how the Iranians respond will affect the entire region.
Israel calls Iran’s bluff, but how the Iranians respond will affect the entire region.
The strategic advantage remains with Iran and its proxies. This is because through long years of complacency, Israel allowed Iran to build up two Islamist armies on its borders.
With a very real prospect of open warfare with Hezbollah and a wider regional conflagration, Jerusalem needs to formulate a comprehensive strategy against the threat from Lebanon.
The statement from the Iranian UN delegation that the matter can now be ‘deemed concluded’ indicates that Iran hopes to get back to the proxy warfare strategy. The ball is now in Israel’s court.
It is not by chance that the highest-ranking Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps official killed by Israel so far in this conflict was operating out of Damascus.
Israel’s war in Gaza has been under way for three months and is at a hinge point. Speaking to Inquirer, IDF soldiers describe a constantly shifting and confusing battlescape.
The crucial factor is now time. The IDF still needs one or two months to complete the encircling of Hamas’s forces in southern Gaza.
Competing priorities for Israel on saving its hostages, destroying Hamas and maintaining Western support must be weighed as the IDF advances into Gaza City.
As the world’s attention remains fixed on the narrow and dusty strip strip to Israel’s southwest, a far larger and potentially more consequential mobilisation is taking place.
As we begin a long conflict, the confused picture is assuming a clearer shape. Israel, both state and society, is facing one of its greatest challenges.
Original URL: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/jonathan-spyer