Your betting guide for the Academy Awards
If you fancy a flutter on this year’s Academy Awards, here’s where you can find the best value to increase your odds of walking away from Hollywood’s night of nights a bit richer.
One of the most unpredictable film awards seasons will soon come to a close, with Hollywood’s best set to be voted on by their peers at next month’s Academy Awards.
Following a relatively soft movie year due to lingering production issues from the pandemic and labour strikes, with fewer big studio tentpoles released to moviegoers, an eclectic crop of films have been nominated and hope to take Oscar home.
In recent months, as precursor awards came and went, favourites firmed up.
But, in the Hollywood tradition, where everything is grubbier than it seems, leaks and controversies flipped categories and presumed favourites on their heads.
Due to this (and the fact Australian betting markets don’t keep up quite so well to what is, admittedly, a pretty novel betting market) there is value to be found if you fancy a flutter.
Read below for where you can try your hand at making a bit of dosh on Hollywood’s night of nights.
As Paul Newman’s Eddie says in The Color of Money: “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned”.
Please note this is not financial advice, and you gamble at your own risk.
Odds as of 9.30am, February 17 (Sportsbet):
The big six, ‘above-the-line’ awards
Best Picture
Anora ($1.40)
The Brutalist ($4.50)
Conclave ($8)
A Complete Unknown ($26)
Emilia Perez ($34)
Formerly a two-horse race between The Brutalist and Emilia Perez, controversy surrounding Emilia Perez star Karla Sofia Gascon, where racist tweets were unearthed from the trans crime musical star’s X account, and big wins for Sean Baker and his film Anora have vaulted the sex worker dramedy to top spot.
Plus, a strong BAFTAs performance from Conclave means the twisty papal thriller remains in the race.
We think: It’s closer than the odds tell you. Three-hour-plus architectural/post-Holocaust immigration epic The Brutalist was a heavy favourite over the holidays, where Anora was paying a much-longer $5.
That’s a lot of ground to make up in a short period of time, so a Brutalist bet could be good for value.
The Brutalist’s earlier strength came despite revelations surrounding the use of AI to touch up Hungarian pronunciations and a handful of blueprint designs featured in the film.
The AI conversation was quickly swallowed up, however, by Emilia Perez’s fall from grace as a somewhat-surprising awards darling.
Anora had been top of the power rankings since it won the top gong at Cannes in the first half of 2024, briefly usurped by The Brutalist and Emilia Perez after Golden Globes wins for the two.
Don’t totally count out Conclave or A Complete Unknown either, more classical Academy picks that could benefit from the ranked-choice voting system employed for the Oscars.
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora ($1.83)
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist ($2)
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez ($17)
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance ($19)
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown ($26)
Baker’s win at the Director’s Guild Awards (DGAs) pushed him, like Anora, to the top spot, so if you jumped on early, good picking.
Corbet has won many of the precursors, however, so expect a lot of love to remain for his love letter to art and the economics of its creation, something the Academy loves to lap up.
Our verdict: It’s a true two-horse race with the edge to Baker. Pick at your discretion and gut feeling.
Also, don’t ignore Coralie Fargeat, director of goopy body horror phenom The Substance. She’s only the 10th woman nominated for best director, and her videoed reaction to her nomination went viral.
It seems unlikely, but remember Kathryn Bigelow’s 2010 win for The Hurt Locker? Her ex James Cameron certainly does.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist ($1.50)
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown ($2.88)
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave ($13)
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing ($23)
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice ($23)
It’s getting tighter between the top two.
Chalamet has been on one of the most impressive campaigns ever seen, a true fit for the digital age.
And Adrien Brody, despite leading for the whole race, saw his campaign take a hit when the AI controversy broke, although he has managed it deftly.
Our verdict: Chalamet is the best value of the night.
After his Golden Globes win, it felt like Adrien Brody taking out his second Best Actor trophy was set in stone.
But with the AI scandal, which The Ringer’s Joanna Robinson called “one of the deftest Oscar campaign sniper attacks I’ve ever seen,” his future might not be so certain.
Brody’s BAFTA win would have settled some nerves, but should lingering AI fears knock Brody from the race, the Little Gold Man would land in the hands of Timothée Chalamet.
His performance in A Complete Unknown, James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic, has been widely hailed as extraordinary.
Better still is the promotional campaign he’s been on.
The 29-year-old star has all but forgone traditional media in favour of goofier, extremely online interviews, striking many chords with a broad range of people.
He’s the new Leo, the only true film superstar of his generation, and would confirm his bona fides with a win.
Best Actress
(via bet365)
Demi Moore, The Substance ($1.44)
Mikey Madison, Anora ($2.62)
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here ($13)
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez ($34)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked ($34)
Hollywood icon Moore has been leading this race firmly since her Golden Globe win over ingenue rival Madison, despite it being for a body horror treatise on the middle-to-later female years, not topics the Oscars typically sees fit to reward.
Madison’s price has shortened slightly since the big wins for Anora and her BAFTA win, so still bears watching.
Our verdict: It’s probably an ‘it’s time’ win for Demi Moore, whose self-examination in The Substance has earned her plaudits far and wide.
When she won the Golden Globe from Anora lead Mikey Madison, the whole complexion of the race changed.
Don’t rule out Fernanda Torres pulling off a major upset. She won Best Actress in a drama at the Golden Globes and I’m Still Here is massive in Brazil, where there is a large voting bloc.
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain ($1.10)
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown ($7)
Yura Borisov, Anora ($13)
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist ($17)
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice ($23)
The single most boring award of the night. Don’t be surprised if it gets handed out early, Culkin has been leading all season and it won’t change on Oscars night.
We think: This is the biggest stay-away of the night.
Culkin has been collecting every award in the run-up and there’s not much to gain here.
Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez ($1.12)
Ariana Grande, Wicked ($5)
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist ($15)
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave ($21)
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown ($26)
Saldana – who has also looked like a lock all awards season – could have been rocked by the Emilia Perez controversy, but she has handled it well and maintained her tight hold.
Our verdict: This is also probably a stay-away,
Saldana has avoided the Emilia Perez controversy, which injected some much-needed excitement into this category, and is well liked in tinseltown.
Other categories where bettors could find value
Best Original Screenplay
Anora’s Sean Baker is the heavy favourite, paying $1.25.
But, this is an award the Academy likes to give to up-and-comers and well-liked films that don’t receive attention in other categories.
That’s why you should keep an eye on Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, currently paying $6.50. She has burst onto the Hollywood scene this year and could get a win here.
Best International Feature Film
Emilia Perez (oddly, a French movie made by Frenchman Audiard, despite being set primarily in Mexico and telling a Mexican story) is the favourite at $1.57, but all its controversies may give a peek to I’m Still Here at $2.75.
Best Animated Feature
Flow, an animated, wordless cat film from Latvia, is paying $2.62 to favourite The Wild Robot’s $1.57.
Flow has been winning a decent amount of precursors and has a lot of love behind it. Good value here.
Best Film Editing
This field has evened up dramatically. The Brutalist was favourite, but now sits behind papal election drama Conclave, paying $2.25.
Anora is now paying $3 and is our value pick.
Sean Baker edits his own films, so if he rides a wave of auteur-love in other categories, he could be one to watch.
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