Oscars 2025: our critic gives his verdict on the contenders
There’s plenty of heated debate in the lead-up to the 97th Oscars, which will include the first transgender woman nominated for best actress. Our film critic assesses the 10 main categories.
Where would the Academy Awards be without controversy? The 97th Oscars will be announced on Monday, Australian time, and in the lead-up at least one commentator has described them as “the fraudiest in history”.
The most heated debate involves Emilia Perez star Karla Sofia Gascon, the first transgender woman nominated for best actress. Online sleuths dug up offensive social media comments about Black Lives Matter, Muslims and same sex couples. She’s apologised but her Oscar prospects have shrunk.
Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist was best picture favourite but slipped after the director admitted using AI to help star Adrien Brody, playing a Hungarian architect, sound more Hungarian on the occasions he speaks that language.
Critics with stopwatches accuse studios of rorting the nominations in their favour. So Kieran Culkin, co-lead in A Real Pain, is put up as best supporting actor rather than best actor, where he would have far less likelihood of winning.
And then there are complaints that in A Complete Unknown, Timothee Chalamet’s Bob Dylan does not have blue eyes nor supply drugs to The Beatles.
With all of this in mind, I’m going to assess 10 of the main categories and say who I think should win, who I think will win and add a couple of long shots.
Camerawork is perhaps Australia’s best chance for an Oscar via Greig Fraser for Dune: Part Two. He won one for the first instalment in 2022. However I don’t think the sands of time will favour him twice.
Cinematography
Should win: Lol Crawley for The Brutalist. His cinematography is the foundation stone of this mesmerising epic about an architect and his work.
Will win: Crawley.
Long shot: Jarin Blaschke for the atmospheric vampire reboot Nosferatu.
Original screenplay
Should win: French writer-director Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, which is far more intelligent and thought-provoking than the favourite Anora, written-directed by Sean Baker.
Will win: I’ll stick with Fargeat. It will be consolation for not winning best director.
Adapted screenplay
Should win: Peter Straughan for Conclave. His adaptation of Robert Harris’s 2016 novel turns papal politics into a Machiavellian thriller.
Will win: Straughan. One of the certainties.
Supporting actor
Should win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain. He commands the screen from the first to last moment.
Will win: Culkin. Another sure bet. As good as Guy Pearce is in The Brutalist, he will go home without a statuette. (Australia’s other contender is Adam Elliot for the animated feature Memoir of a Snail.)
Long shot: Yura Borisov in Anora. The final 15 minutes, in which he is central, are the best part of the movie.
Supporting actress
Should win: I’m on another outsider. Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez in A Complete Unknown. I think she does something special.
Will win: Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez. It’s another stopwatch check as she is on screen longer than Karla Sofia Gascon, but I don’t think that will stop her.
The snub: Nicole Kidman should have been nominated for Babygirl.
Actor
Should win:Timothee Chalamet for his mind-blowing interpretation of Bob Dylan: body, mind, soul and voice.
Will win: Adrien Brody is favourite, and he is amazing, but I think it will be Chalamet.
Actress
Should win: Demi Moore for a career-defining performance in The Substance.
Will win: Moore. This is one of the closer categories, with Mikey Madison in Anora favoured just ahead of Moore.
Director
Should win: A Complete Unknown is the best film I saw in the past 12 months. James Mangold is another long shot but I vote for him.
Will win: The odds say it’s between Sean Baker for Anora and Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. As the latter is a far superior film, I hope Corbet wins (unless Mangold does of course).
Picture
Should win: A Complete Unknown, for the reason outlined above.
Will win: Anora is the clear favourite and if it wins good on it. A week or so ago I would have put A Complete Unknown first and The Brutalist second.
Long Shot: Right now I think, with Pope Francis on his deathbed at the time of writing, that Conclave, a powerful old-fashioned film that opens with the death of a pope, is the long shot that will be the surprise of the night, god willing.
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