Will James Bond come to the big screen in Australia after all?

Cinema seasons of Free Guy, Suicide Squad, James Bond film No Time To Die and Dune starring Timothee Chalamet will eventually screen in all Australian states ... or at least, that's the plan.

Daniel Craig as agent 007 in the forthcoming James Bond adventure, No Time To Die. Picture: Nicola Dove

Family film Peter Rabbit 2 “got lucky” in March when Sony Pictures Australia was able to open the world premiere season, at a time when other parts of the world were struggling with Covid-19 lockdowns.

“We were healthy and open and we got it out on time,” says Stephen Basil-Jones, executive vice-president of Sony Pictures Australia. The film, featuring local stars Rose Byrne and Margot Robbie, took $22m locally, a pleasing result for the distributor.

Then the Delta strain broke loose in NSW and other states, forcing cinemas to close. When they eventually reopen, Basil-Jones says, conditions will be ­particularly challenging for family films because children are not ­eligible for vaccination against Covid-19.

Awkwafina arrives for the world premiere in Hollywood of Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. Picture: Valerie Macon / AFP

Parents will be “very nervous” about taking their children to the movies, he says.

Other eagerly awaited films also are likely to be affected by Covid lockdowns, as cinemas remain closed in NSW, Victoria and the ACT. The northern hemisphere is having its summer blockbuster season, with the premieres of Daniel Craig’s James Bond film No Time To Die, Dune, and Venom: Let There Be Carnage due in the coming weeks and months.

Basil-Jones says Australian moviegoers won’t miss out, but “there may be a little delay” in the release of major films in the locked-down states.

Some films, such as the latest Marvel instalment Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, will have a staggered release across different states, opening in non-locked down markets first. Other films may go straight to a streaming platform, especially if a streaming release date is set in the US.

Industry experts say the scheduling of Hollywood blockbusters around Covid lockdowns will be done on a case-by-case basis, influenced by factors including global release dates, licensing obligations and financial marketing risks.

Lori Flekser, executive director of the Motion Picture Distributors Association of Australia, says the major studios prefer their blockbusters to be seen in cinemas “on a big screen with sophisticated technology … that can’t be replicated in the home”.

She says decisions about distribution are not based on Australia’s situation alone, given the spread of the Delta variant in other markets worldwide, including the US.

“For now, it’s probable that each distributor will review each film and make case-by-case decisions based on the unique risk ­factors,” she says.

Rose Byrne as Bea in Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

“One of the critical considerations is the enormous commercial risk for distributors who must book marketing campaigns and promotions in advance. If there is a Covid outbreak and a significant number of cinemas are required to close, as happened recently, the choice is for the movie to open with a fraction of the cinemas available … or for the movie to be delayed again, resulting in a loss of the media campaign investment. In either case, the financial risks are considerable.”

While Disney has pioneered dual releases in cinemas and on its Disney+ streaming platform – as it did in July with Black Widow – for the Covid-battered film industry, there are financial risks with whatever strategy they go with.

Basil-Jones says that if blockbusters are launched in cinemas in Australia’s locked-down states after other states have seen them, it will reduce box office returns: “There’ll be other films coming along that will be fresher, more immediate,” he says.

On the other hand, when movies are launched on streaming platforms, “piracy is one of the big issues we have; there’s a brilliant, pristine copy that’s able to be accessed around the world straight away”.

Daniel Craig in a scene from No Time To Die

The global film industry is pinning its hopes for a box-office recovery on the much-delayed Bond film No Time To Die, Craig’s final outing as the British superspy.

It’s due for Australian release on September 30 and in the US on October 8, but distributor NBC Universal is still grappling with the challenges thrown up by Delta-­related lockdowns.

Basil-Jones says distributors typically book advertising three months ahead of a film’s premiere and “then you’ll get to a period when, if you do not cancel, you’re going to lose your money … it’s a crapshoot”.

Michael Hawkins, of the National Association of Cinema Operators, says that even though cinema seasons of Free Guy, Suicide Squad, No Time To Die and Dune have been, or could be, truncated by lockdowns, they will eventually screen in all Australian states. “Exhibitors will make room for these titles among the new blockbusters launching,” he says.

Basil-Jones predicts that October will mark the start of a global box-office revival as Covid vaccination levels hit 70 or 80 per cent in key markets.

He says the line-up of films from late 2021 into 2022 is “phenomenal” and movie-going will rebound.

“One thing Australia has shown is that once the restrictions come off, there is a positive dis­position to go to the cinema again,” he says.