Ted Baillieu defies his doubters with a massive swing against Labor

After a hung parliament in the federal election and a drawn AFL Grand Final, the Victorian poll should have come as no surprise.

GIVEN there was a hung parliament in the federal election and a drawn AFL Grand Final, the lack of a result in the Victorian poll should have come as no surprise.

But many, especially in the Labor Party, are now in a state of shock about what will unfold over the next few days.

Until The Weekend Australian's Newspoll, there was no indication there would be such a massive swing against the 11-year-old Labor government.

Many people, including within the Liberals, thought that winning 13 seats was too big an ask for Ted Baillieu, opposition leader since 2006.

The phrase often used by John Howard that “you can't fatten a pig on market day” was bandied around by many political commentators, as well as those from the Coalition and Labor sides.

It turns out they were wrong.

The Coalition has been steadily gaining momentum and is now within reach of government.

The result will not be known for a few days.

But the Coalition has gained a huge swathe of seats in Melbourne's eastern and southeastern suburbs.

Whether there will be a hung parliament will most likely depend on the counts in the seats of Bentleigh and Macedon.

Mr Baillieu, not known as a great performer in front of the cameras, nailed his speech at the Liberal Party post-election function at the Sofitel in Melbourne.

He made it perfectly clear that the Brumby government was now illegitimate. He was now ready and deserved to govern.

“The Labor vote has collapsed,” he said. “This has been a stunning result.”

The crowd - surprisingly mostly full of young people - went crazy and chanted “We love Ted” and “We want Ted.”

Premier John Brumby's speech could not have been more different. It was like he was still on the election campaign, and was very similar to Julia Gillard's speech on August 17.

It bordered on denial and is exactly the reason why his government may not get the majority it needs to win government.

Mr Brumby did concede he had received a message from the voters, but then went on to argue they could provide “strong leadership” to govern in a minority.

For Mr Brumby, personally, this will be a massive blow. He led the party in opposition to a loss in 1996 and now faces that same prospect again.

The other big story of the night was the Greens - or the lack thereof. They failed to win a single lower house seat. The Greens tide has been stopped in its tracks.

The Liberals took a massive risk deciding not to preference the Greens. But it was a risk that may have paid off, and handsomely.

Whatever happens over the next few days, this result will send shock waves beyond the state borders.

If the Victorian Labor government - considered the most stable of Labor state governments and a good economic performer - cannot be re-elected, what hope does New South Wales or Queensland have.