Will Hawthorn go back to blue, remain red or could teal lightning strike again?

Explore more of our in-depth coverage of the seat of Hawthorn this state election.See all 20 stories.

It’s just after 11am on a Sunday morning, and I’m standing outside Hawthorn town hall talking to a lobster.

The campaign launch for John Pesutto, Liberal candidate for Hawthorn, has just finished and current and former Liberal MPs, including Josh Frydenberg and Tim Wilson, are streaming out of the building, deftly avoiding the lobster on their way.

The lobster outside Hawthorn town hall on Sunday morning.Credit: Clay Lucas

Pesutto, 52, is attempting to win back the seat he lost in 2018, live on ABC television, to 74-year-old retiree John Kennedy.

“No one was more surprised to win than me,” says Kennedy, who’d volunteered to run because no one else in Labor would. Pesutto took his defeat – ultimately by 330 votes – gracefully, endearing him to many viewers.

People hadn’t seen someone lose on air as he did, Pesutto tells me, a few days before his campaign launch. “I happened to be the one who the gods ordained would give it a trial run.” Until that night, Hawthorn had been held by a conservative for all but one term in 129 years.

But back to the lobster. Or, to be more precise, the young person in a lobster suit, who is waving and smiling at passersby as the event finishes.

Lobsters were a theme of Labor’s 2018 campaign against Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. The Victorian Trades Hall Council sent people in lobster suits and, sometimes, a five-metre-high inflatable lobster to Liberal events, to highlight integrity issues surrounding Guy’s infamous “lobster with a mobster” dinner.

It’s five years since that story broke and, while it still makes sense as a shorthand for integrity problems in politics, it feels a little stale.

Accompanying the lobster outside the town hall is another young person. I will later learn this is Rob Baillieu, a core member of the team behind the “teal” candidate for Hawthorn, Melissa Lowe. This is not quite the “politics done differently” promised by community independents.

Melissa Lowe.Credit: Paul Jeffers

In May, Baillieu managed 2000 volunteers during Monique Ryan’s historic victory over Frydenberg. Ryan won the once-safe Liberal seat of Kooyong in one of the most seismic shifts federal politics in Australia has seen in decades. The state seat of Hawthorn sits entirely within the boundaries of the federal seat of Kooyong.

Rob’s father is former premier and Hawthorn MP Ted Baillieu, who moments earlier has given an impassioned speech supporting Pesutto inside the town hall.

The younger Baillieu’s support of Lowe is a sign of just how complex – and potentially toxic – the three-way competition for this seat may get.

Matthew Guy doesn’t show up for Pesutto’s campaign launch, but among Liberal MPs past and present who do, the fear is this: if they can’t win back this seat with a candidate as well-known as Pesutto, will they ever get it back? And if this is no longer a winnable seat for the Liberals, who exactly does the party of Robert Menzies represent in Victoria?

For the next four weeks, The Age will be reporting closely on Hawthorn; what happens here will signal whether the revolt against the major parties Australia saw at May’s federal election will flow on to state politics. A Resolve Political Monitor poll for The Age on Friday showed strong support for third parties, as well as a dominant two-party preferred position for the government.

May’s federal poll saw eight independents sent to Canberra. Did it have unique characteristics that will be absent at the state level? And in Hawthorn, where the teal candidate views her main opponent as the Liberals and not the sitting Labor MP, will the support Monique Ryan saw be replicated for a lower-profile teal?

The good life

There is nowhere more “old Melbourne” than the undulating, tree-lined streets of Hawthorn, Camberwell, Surrey Hills and Canterbury that make up this electorate, just 3½ kilometres east of the city centre.

The beauty of its tidy neighbourhoods, its superb public transport – three train lines and five tram lines run through the electorate – and its swish community facilities, such as the Hawthorn Aquatic Centre, explain its median house price of $2.5 million. It’s also one of Australia’s healthiest places; the average life expectancy here is 86, compared to 82 in Melbourne’s west.

The median weekly household income here is $2313 (the state average is $1759), a third of households have no mortgage, and some of Melbourne’s finest mansions line the banks of the Yarra River, which snakes along Hawthorn’s western boundary. Exclusive private schools Scotch and Bialik colleges are within the electorate and Xavier College, Methodist Ladies’ College and Carey Baptist Grammar sit on its borders.

But focusing on affluence doesn’t tell the whole story of what, in some ways, is a progressive electorate, and one that is changing quickly. The biggest age bracket in the seat is 25 to 29-year-olds.

One third of residents rent; many are students at the electorate’s biggest employer, Swinburne University. In 2011, apartments accounted for one third of dwellings, but the construction boom has seen that rise to 42 per cent. At the 2018 state poll the Greens took 18 per cent of the vote, while climate change was the focus of Ryan’s campaign, as it is for Lowe’s tilt at the state seat.

Simultaneously, retirees are moving into Hawthorn in unprecedented numbers. Julian Szafraniec​​, a partner at SGS Economics and Planning, says the surge of retirees in Hawthorn, up more than 40 per cent in the last decade, is significant. Retirees with time to spare, it should be noted, devoted thousands of hours to the Ryan campaign.

Changing climate

Families in this seat buy their school uniforms from a Hawthorn institution: Dobsons on Glenferrie Road, which opened in 1918. If you want to understand how mainstream environmental concerns have become in this electorate, it’s a good place to start.

A few years ago, director Ian Dobson’s then 10-year-old granddaughter asked if his uniforms used biodegradable products. He looked into it. “We discovered our industry is the second-biggest polluter in the world. We thought we should try and do something,” says Dobson.

Firbank Grammar was the first school to go green with Dobsons uniforms, using organic cotton, sustainable cloth and recycled materials. Others followed.

At the federal election, where climate-focused independents swept all before them, the Morrison government was seen to have dragged its heels for years on climate change. In Victoria, there is less disagreement on environmental issues between the two major parties.

Simon Holmes a Court, whose Climate 200 initiative fundraised $13 million via 11,200 donors for federal teal candidates, is supporting four independents at the state poll, including Lowe. He personally donated $4000 to her campaign. Climate 200 is donating money and services to campaigns in Hawthorn, Kew, Mornington and Caulfield.

Holmes a Court says that the “democratic revival” that community independents represent pressures the major parties to lift their game at the state level too.

Simon Holmes a Court.Credit: Kristoffer Paulsen

While he acknowledges the Andrews government has performed well on climate change issues and is “very good” on renewable energy, Holmes a Court says it is “terrible on logging of native forests, supports the expansion of the fossil fuel sector and put a premature tax on electric vehicles”.

Environmental groups have welcomed the emergence of community independents because it gives an option to voters concerned about climate change who might never put the Greens first on their ballot.

“Hawthorn will be an electorate where the dynamic from May’s federal election is still going to be in play,” says Paul Sinclair, director of campaigns at the Australian Conservation Foundation. “Everything changed in May – people realised ‘Goodness, we can change who our MP is’.

“Independents with strong climate, environment and democratic integrity agendas have been injecting a dynamic into politics that excites people and gets them super active,” he says. “No matter who you vote for, that’s got to make for a healthier democracy.”

No more Mr Nice Guy?

A couple of weeks before his campaign launch, I sit with John Pesutto in the upmarket Bakers Wife cafe on Burke Road, Camberwell. He is telling me about his 10 months of campaigning for the seat when Andrews government minister Colin Brooks, in the cafe by chance, wanders over to say hi. Rivalry across the Victorian parliamentary chamber can be fierce, but Pesutto and Brooks are clearly fond of one another.

John Pesutto.Credit: Eddie Jim

It’s a common refrain about Pesutto: voters and politicians alike describe him as a “good guy”. His likeable character and status among Liberal “moderates”, including Michael O’Brien and Ted Baillieu, see him regularly touted as a future state Liberal leader, though he isn’t even in parliament.

Monique Ryan sounds a note of caution. “Yes, John is a charming fellow,” she says, sitting in her Camberwell office. “I’ve stood on pre-poll with him for 12 hours a day and gotten to know him – he’s a genuinely nice man. But his ‘African gangs’ fear-mongering? We’re defined by our actions.

“There’s a reason why he got voted out,” she says. “To see him as the great white hope of the Liberal Party, that doesn’t speak too well for the rest of the talent in that Liberal Party.”

Pesutto was shadow attorney-general during Matthew Guy’s disastrous 2018 campaign focused on law and order, and specifically on a string of gang attacks by young people born in Africa. Guy was supported by Pesutto, who warned Victoria was enduring “one of the worst periods of gang violence our state has perhaps ever seen”.

He reacts angrily when Ryan’s quotes are put to him. “As the son of working-class Italian migrants, any suggestion I would ever single out an emerging migrant community to score political points is a hurtful, irresponsible and desperate smear,” he says, recalling his parents being frequently mocked because of their limited English. “I won’t be lectured by people who have no lived experience of that.”

Asked to name key policies, Pesutto nominates primary schools – Camberwell, Canterbury and Glenferrie – in need of upgrades (Labor on Wednesday announced $9.7 million for Camberwell). He says while much of Melbourne has seen transport fixes, Hawthorn has languished despite being held by Labor. He points, in particular, to Canterbury station, where in June he posted a video of the poor state of the concourse. And he says the electorate needs stronger planning laws to preserve heritage and neighbourhood character while still allowing development. He believes the Liberals’ climate policy – which includes a 50 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 pledge – has neutralised that issue for voters: “People want an assurance that we’re invested in the issue and take it seriously.“

Pesutto says the teal campaign for Hawthorn is unconvincing: “It seems to be wanting to rehearse what happened federally in a state election that is very different.”

Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras worked with federal teal candidates, including Ryan, in May and is now working with Lowe in Hawthorn. He notes the booths where Ryan polled strongest all sit within Hawthorn: “On the federal figures, the Liberal Party doesn’t get within cooee of winning this seat.”

Samaras acknowledges that an incumbent state Labor government dampens some of the anger present in May, “and John Pesutto is the type of Liberal that is more palatable to disaffected Liberal voters. But there is still a huge problem: he’s fighting real disaffection towards the Liberal brand and also demographic changes.”

Pesutto’s campaign launch speech fires up the gathered Liberal Party faithful. His focus is on Labor’s integrity issues, including Premier Daniel Andrews’ four appearances before the state corruption commission, politicisation of the public service, and billions of dollars in blowouts on transport infrastructure projects. “Victorians deserve a government that is not scandal-ridden,” he says to cheers, his polished delivery a reminder of why he’s seen as leadership material.

In the hot seat

Leadership isn’t on incumbent MP John Kennedy’s agenda when we have lunch at his local pub. Kennedy is honest about his ambitions for public office should he win again.

Not that standing a second time was always a given. “If you’ve got a rock star or someone that you think would be great, [run them],” Kennedy told the Labor Party before his preselection. Labor declined the offer, and he’s happy to have another go. “What was Tony Abbott’s phrase? I’m happy to be a potential loser rather than a quitter.”

John Kennedy.Credit: Eddie Jim

If he does win, Kennedy isn’t hoping for elevation beyond Labor’s backbench. “I’m a reliable and solid worker and that’s what I’m offering. It’s hardly the work of, say, an up-and-coming minister, but it is the work of a fairly diligent and conscientious local member.”

Kennedy says he has been a strong advocate for schools, securing $41 million for upgrades, including major projects at Auburn High and Swinburne Senior Secondary College, along with Auburn South, Camberwell and Hawthorn West primary schools. He also highlights upgrades to sporting clubs, new public housing and removal of the Toorak Road level crossing in his four years.

ABC election analyst Antony Green says Kennedy is unlikely to hold the seat. “He didn’t win because he was John Kennedy last time, apart from the name sounded like a former footballer.” (John Kennedy was a 1950s ruckman who later became a legendary coach, guiding Hawthorn to three premierships.) The savage 2018 swing against the Liberals was along party lines, Green says. “I’m just not sure that same level of anti-Liberal vote will be there this time.”

Kennedy estimates his win was 60 per cent for the Andrews government, 30 per cent against the Liberals, “and 10 per cent local factors”. Friends joke his analysis is flawed. “That I’ve exaggerated local factors and that it was more like three or four per cent.”

Kennedy thinks Pesutto’s campaign this time has been inconsistent. “The word for John Pesutto a few weeks ago was integrity,” and then Matthew Guy’s chief of staff stepped down over acceptance of secret donations. “Integrity has now been replaced with ambulance [response] times.”

Teal 2.0

Kennedy will direct his preferences to the teal candidate, as Labor did federally in Kooyong. Melissa Lowe is a 52-year-old Swinburne University student equity manager who earlier this year joined Ryan’s army of volunteers. Ryan ended up with 4000 teal signs plastered all over Kooyong. By Thursday, Lowe had 432 handed out. Ryan points out that this difference is in large part due to state donation laws limiting individual donations to $4320. Federally, they are uncapped.

The major parties legislated an exception for themselves to these laws, tipping the scales in their favour and against minor parties and independents. “The dynamic is grossly unfair at the state level,” says Ryan.

Monique Ryan gives her first speech in the House of Representatives in July.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Green says Lowe won’t poll as well as Ryan did federally because her campaign has been shorter, she is lower profile, “and some of the issues they campaigned on such as integrity and climate change are things the Liberal Party in Victoria is much better on than the federal Liberal Party was”.

Lowe is door-knocking in Surrey Hills when I tell her that the buzz doesn’t feel quite like the “Mon4Kooyong” blitzkrieg. She rejects this out of hand and points to her 200 volunteers as proof.

Among Hawthorn’s 18 MPs since its creation in 1889 have been three Johns and two Roberts but no women. If Lowe wins, she will be the seat’s first female MP.

Her top policy concern is the environment – particularly state issues such as logging. She wants to see an immediate end to native forest logging legislated by 2024. Integrity is her other key focus, including a demand that governments be required to publish evidence supporting major spending decisions at the time the commitment is made.

Mark Cubit is typical of voters who supported Ryan in May. The philanthropist is a believer in the ability of independent candidates to influence government – he has a sister who was president of the Legislative Council in Tasmania, where independents are commonplace.

Federally, Cubit regards the Liberals as toxic, and wonders if the hard right could still overwhelm the party’s once-dominant moderate faction, regardless of the state election.

He is happy to see Lowe and other teal candidates running, including Sophie Torney in Kew, whose campaign he is supporting.

But should the Coalition lose next month, Cubit believes Pesutto is the logical choice to lead the Liberals if Victoria is to have a viable opposition. “Because of that, I would rather see John Pesutto elected than not.”

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