NSW Labor slides as Greens, independents make ground with voters

Fewer voters now support NSW Labor than when the party was elected in March, with the Minns government’s primary vote continuing to slide as independents and the Greens gain ground.

While more than one-third of voters list Chris Minns as their preferred premier, the majority of those surveyed were undecided, with Opposition Leader Mark Speakman slipping to 13 per cent.

Chris Minns support as preferred premier has dropped to 35 per cent from a high of 41 per cent in September.Credit: Dominic Lorrimer

The exclusive Resolve Political Monitor for the Herald was conducted after the Minns government had a string of damaging distractions, including the premier having to apologise to the Jewish community for the disastrous handling of a pro-Palestine protest near the Sydney Opera House.

Minns also lost a minister after just four months in government after Newcastle MP Tim Crakanthorp was forced to quit cabinet over his family’s property interests in the Hunter.

However, the survey was done before the latest scandal engulfing under-pressure Transport Minister Jo Haylen, who abruptly lost her chief of staff Scott Gartrell last week after it emerged a junior public servant on secondment to her office was carrying out Labor work, breaching his employment remit.

Haylen had already been under fire over the appointment of her top transport bureaucrat Josh Murray, who was a former Labor member, staffer and a one-time small donor to her campaign.

Labor’s primary vote is on 36 per cent, down from 37 per cent at the election, while the Coalition has taken a bigger hit, dropping from 35.4 per cent at the March poll to 32 per cent in the latest survey.

However, the Greens have made ground, up four percentage points since March to 13 per cent, while independents have also increased their primary vote to 12 per cent, up from 8.7 per cent.

The government relies on the Greens and the independents to pass legislation in the lower house because it did not form a majority in the March poll. Labor also does not control the upper house.

While Minns rates higher as preferred premier than when he was elected, he has dropped to 35 per cent from a previous high of 41 per cent in September. But 52 per cent of voters remained undecided over who they would prefer to lead NSW.

Resolve director Jim Reed said NSW Labor was slipping backwards as it continued to battle scandals.

“The Minns Government’s primary vote continues to slide to the point where fewer people support them now than at the election in March. They would still win if an election were held today, but they can’t afford to keep shedding support like this,” Reed said.

“The fact that their loss is going to minor parties and not the Coalition suggests that it’s an issue with the government, and it would be fair to say that most people’s exposure to them in recent months has been scandals, criticism and apologies.”

Reed said the most popular response for preferred premier was “undecided”, with more than half of voters choosing that option. “That’s when you know the leaders are uninspiring and failing to fill the electorate with confidence.”

The survey of 1100 voters was taken in the first week of October and the first week of this month.

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