It is the ultimate State of Origin divide but one in which NSW trumps Queensland on almost every measure from murder to robbery and even car theft.
A state-by-state analysis of crime rates, using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, reveals NSW has the lowest rate of assaults of all states – beaten only by the ACT – while fewer houses are broken into in NSW than any state or territory in the country.
The Northern Territory has significantly higher rates of crime than any jurisdiction, where 4 per cent of residents reported being assaulted each year between 2021-23. That figure is 1.4 per cent in NSW.
It is the gulf between crime rates in NSW and Queensland which is the most stark.
The rate of physical assault in NSW is 70 per cent lower than in Queensland, while twice as many homes are broken into north of the border, a NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) analysis of the ABS data reveals.
The murder rate in Queensland was 29 per cent higher in 2023 compared to NSW’s and theft was double that experienced in NSW last year. Robbery rates in Queensland are also double that of NSW.
The only measure where NSW trails Queensland is sexual assault. In the past 24 years, reported sexual assault rates have soared 90 per cent in NSW. In comparison, Queensland’s rates have climbed 44 per cent.
The bureau’s executive director Jackie Fitzgerald said the state-by-state comparisons, using data collected from the ABS victims survey, showed impressive results for NSW.
“Anywhere in Australia would be envious of crime rates in NSW,” Fitzgerald said.
Fitzgerald said BOCSAR also analysed youth crime rates, which showed a promising downward trend. The declining youth rate was significant because the teenage years were the most likely stage of life when someone would commit a crime, she said.
“What we know is people tend to mature out of crime,” Fitzgerald said. “The period of your life when you are most likely to be at the peak of criminal involvement is adolescence because of the tendency for risk-taking behaviour.”
Youth crime accounts for 12 per cent of all crime in NSW, from a high of 18 per cent in 2010. It is down 34 per cent over the past 14 years.
Break and enter is down 64 per cent compared to 2008-09, robbery is down 50 per cent and serious physical assault has dropped 38 per cent.
Youth rates of drug dealing are down 35 per cent and sexual assault has dropped 51 per cent.
Fitzgerald said a range of reasons could be behind the declining youth rates, such as teenagers spending less time on the streets and more time inside on screens.
“I think the changing way young people recreate has clearly had an impact,” Fitzgerald said.
However, youth crime rates remain an issue in the north-west of the state. In Bourke, youth crime is 19 times higher than the state average and 13 times higher than average in Brewarrina.
The NSW Labor government was pressured this year to address worsening regional youth crime, particularly in Moree, after a video of teens breaking into and robbing motel rooms was circulated on the internet.
In March, the state government significantly tightened bail laws for teenagers and made it an offence to boast on social media about stealing cars or breaking into homes.
The new laws also introduced an extra bail test for teens aged between 14 and 18 who are charged with committing serious break and enter offences or car theft while on bail for the same offences.
The laws caused deep divisions in NSW Labor, with several senior figures insisting that the Minns government did not have a mandate to toughen youth bail laws.
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