Snubs, subs and Trump: Albanese’s NATO dilemma

Kananaskis, Canada: In the next couple of days, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese must decide whether to fly halfway across the world, again, this time to attend a NATO summit in The Hague. In ordinary times, the decision would be relatively straightforward: is the trip in Australia’s national interest? Will he have a chance to discuss pressing matters with world leaders? And do circumstances at home allow for him to be absent?

And, in ordinary times, the answer would be pretty simple. At a time when Russia is making gains in Ukraine, with a six-day-old war in the Middle East bringing the Iranian government to its knees, and as the global economy is buffeted by US tariffs, yes, obviously it is in Australia’s interests to be there and help shape events.

Will Anthony Albanese make another attempt to meet Donald Trump?Credit: Marija Ercvegovac

But it has been close to a decade since the times were “normal”.

And after having his first meeting with US President Donald Trump at the G7 summit in Canada cancelled – which was not Albanese’s fault, and which also happened to world leaders from South Korea, Mexico, Ukraine, India and more – the prime minister is keenly aware that if he flies to NATO and once again misses out on a meeting with Trump, he will be embarrassed again, and his political enemies will make hay with it.

How likely is Trump to cancel the trip to NATO he has already committed to? US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce gave a 136-word answer to that question on Wednesday, but only three of those words were needed: “anything is possible”.

Publicly, Albanese is arguing that, if he goes to the NATO conference, it will be because he needs to and that it isn’t about Trump. Of course it is, but only in part.

On Tuesday, when the Trump meeting was still on, Albanese was happy for Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles to go to NATO. One day later, after being stood up, the trip was back on the prime minister’s agenda.

While in Canada, Albanese was invited to 10 Downing Street by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will make a stop in London if he does go to NATO. French President Emmanuel Macron also urged Albanese to make the trip to the Netherlands when the pair spoke.

Between the US review of the AUKUS submarine deal, the imposition of tariffs on Australian exports, and a call from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth for Australia to almost double defence spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, the Australia-US relationship is in relatively poor state of repair at the leader-to-leader level.

There are risks for Albanese in spending just a couple of days in Canberra before getting back on the plane to be in The Hague for next Tuesday’s summit, only to potentially be embarrassed by missing out again on a meeting with the unreliable president – though the risk is not as great as it might at first seem. The Australian prime minister will walk straight into a debate about US demands that European NATO members lift their defence spending to as much as 5 per cent – not a conversation Albanese will want to be part of, given Hegseth’s comments and the fact that we currently spend about 2 per cent.

And while some members of the government (and plenty of Australians) do not like Trump and think chasing a meeting amounts to kowtowing, they are wrong. The United States is Australia’s most important security partner, it will be for the foreseeable future, and no matter who is in the White House, the Australian prime minister needs a strong personal relationship with the president.

The federal opposition and other government critics sniff an opportunity to damage the prime minister, whether he stays in Australia and avoids a possible cancellation or if he goes and misses out again. This will not guide the prime minister’s decision.

At the leader-to-leader level, personal relationships are enormously consequential – they can be the 5 per cent extra that secures a tariff concession or a bigger quota of beef exports. Britain’s Starmer, Canada’s Mark Carney and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, to give just three examples, have all secured benefits for their nations by moving early to meet the 47th president. Albanese is lagging, but the situation is repairable.

Even if Trump doesn’t turn up, or if he were to cancel on Albanese again, the benefit of being there outweighs the risk. As Trump’s sudden departure from the G7 reminded America’s allies (as if any reminder were necessary), there are at least another three years of living in an “America First” world – which only increases the importance of multilateral organisations. US allies have two choices: they can wring their hands about America’s absent leadership, or they can get on with the quiet rebuilding of international institutions. Starmer and Macron are two leaders who have signed up to that rebuild. Albanese is another, though he knows the US relationship needs a patch and paint.

Two moments at the G7 summit highlighted the benefits of turning up this week, and of going again next week. The first came just after 9am on the final day of the summit when Carney welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In his low, even voice, Zelensky outlined the latest carnage visited on Kyiv by the Russians. The capital had been smashed, he said, with 138 people injured and another 12 killed by murderous drones.

But the point was not the death toll. Rather, it was the quiet dignity with which Zelensky spoke and the fact that it was face-to-face, allowing a moment for each leader to look the other in the eye. Upon such moments, friendships are forged and alliances are built.

The second moment came a few hours later, during the “family photo” of world leaders. As Albanese joined world leaders on stage, he walked straight up to Zelensky and, without saying a word, the pair embraced. That gut-instinct moment, more than any words the prime minister spoke at the summit, mattered.

Illustration: Simon LetchCredit:

One of Albanese’s greatest strengths over more than three decades in politics has been his ability to build and maintain a broad web of personal relationships. He’s a “relationships guy” in much the same way that Trump has been throughout his careers.

Albanese and Trump will get a chance to look each other in the eye some time soon, whether it is in Holland, at the UN General Assembly in September, or at some other moment in the not-too-distant future. At that point, the questions over the relationship are likely to evaporate.

As he landed back in Australia in the early hours of Thursday morning, Albanese had not made up his mind on whether to attend the summit. My tip is that if Albanese travels to Holland he will focus, at least in his public comments, on the importance of the global rules-based order, regardless of what the president does.

James Massola is chief political commentator.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.