Expect Trump, Musk and Vance to meddle in Australia’s election

The three horsemen of America’s populist renewal: Donald Trump, holder of the most powerful office in the world, Elon Musk, the richest person in the world, and Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump and Musk’s enforcer – will inevitably turn their focus to Australia’s election whenever it is called. By then, Trump will not need any prompt as to what AUKUS means, as he did on Thursday.

Trump, Musk and Vance have form on overseas elections. Trump’s explosive assault on trade with Canada incited its prime ministerial contender Chrystia Freeland to declare Canada had to “push back against America First economic nationalism” – a tipping point in PM Justin Trudeau’s decision to end his reign.

Election watch: While Albanese and Dutton prepare for battle, Trump, Musk and Vance are unlikely to resist commentary from afar.Credit: Marija Ercogovac

In the United Kingdom, Musk attacked Keir Starmer and sought to upend Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party. Musk and Vance were all in with the AfD anti-immigrant party in Germany, which doubled its vote at the election.

The post-World War II era is ending. Trump is in the process of tearing down the global architecture that was erected over the decades to promote and preserve stability, security and peace through the United Nations and NATO and to promote prosperity through free trade. The Atlantic alliance is on the rocks.

In Munich, J.D. Vance went after NATO and the EU big time. The threat was not Russia or China, he said, but the “threat from within” America’s strongest allies. Vance labelled EU officials as “commissars” suppressing free speech. Trump lies unhesitatingly while professing sympathy for the dictator in Russia being the victim of a war launched by the president of Ukraine – who Trump says is a dictator.

These times feel like the 1930s: raw authoritarian nationalism coupled with protectionism and nativism. It is a truly frightening moment.

The US election in November was a decisive shift to the right, politically and culturally. Although Trump won with an exceptionally narrow margin, he is fully exploiting his executive power to transform the United States and the world. Will Australia’s political culture similarly shift to the howling winds of Trump’s power?

Australia, for all the daily political drama played out in the media, is not in as desiccated a state as the US under Trump. We have critical safeguards. Compulsory voting with preferential ballots curbs an extremist result; the Westminster system prevents a blow-in like Trump from ever becoming prime minister; and we have an Australian Electoral Commission that ensures no election is rigged or stolen. The norms of governance are strong: no one with Trump’s moral, legal or business infirmities would escape removal from parliament.

Trump does not hesitate to express support for his preferred winner in select elections overseas. In Australia, Trump will instinctively side more with Peter Dutton and the Coalition on key issues. If not on trade wars and Ukraine – where Dutton has firmly stated that he is on Team Australia on those flashpoints with Trump – then on where the opposition leader stands on the Middle East and support for Israel, immigration and asylum seekers and how they should be treated, and on identity politics and the voodoo of DEI – diversity, equity and inclusion.

Dutton does not want the Indigenous flag behind his lectern at events. No fast-tracking of Gaza refugees for citizenship. He would slash bureaucracy and start a Musk-like government efficiency regime.

While Trump’s initial interactions with Albanese have been positive, “Labor” and “Trump” hardly coincide. And Musk has some point-scoring to settle here – even though Albanese warned him away from “foreign interference” in this election. Musk cannot stand the work of Australia’s eSafety Commission and the agency’s exercise of its mandate “to help safeguard Australians at risk of online harms”. When the commission acted against ugly disparagement of people online and to prevent the wide dissemination of horrific, violent videos, Musk erupted on his platform, X, and in the courts. Expect him back as the campaign proceeds.

Trump’s two hugely emotive issues in his presidential campaign were immigration and tariffs. The political space between Liberals and Labor on immigration is much narrower than between Republicans and Democrats. But the tariff threat Trump is wielding is extremely potent here. The two major parties are united for free trade and will fight Trump’s efforts. There is no factual, legal or explicable basis for Trump to punish Australia. We have a trade deficit with the US. We have a zero-tariff free trade agreement. Trump’s brains trust is dead wrong that Australia’s aluminium exports to the US have been inordinately high. But Trump always wants more. His pound of flesh may well be a new tariff that penalises Australia for its GST.

Meanwhile, Trump, Musk and Vance can diddle with Australia’s election all the way to voting day. Their spleen-venting may well be seen in the media, adding to Dutton’s momentum going into the poll. There will be big headlines, even though compulsory voting in Australia tends to dilute the kind of surge that Trump can generate under voluntary voting in the US.

Whoever forms government will have Trump. But any Trump trade hostility against Australia, coupled with what happens to Ukraine and NATO from Trump’s new entente with Vladimir Putin, will deeply affect views on the true future of Australia’s alliance with the US.

But look on the bright side. After Greenland, the Panama Canal, real estate in Gaza and an obsession with Canada, Trump has not yet deemed Australia the 52nd state.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.