Smashed Liberals banished to the outer suburbs as Sydney’s political map is redrawn

A wave of red and teal has recast the NSW electoral map, with the Liberals and Nationals set to hold fewer than a third of the state’s federal seats.

The Coalition parties could be reduced to just 12 of the state’s 46 federal electorates – six Liberal and six National – after Labor’s victory on Saturday.

Independent Nicolette Boele is ahead in the seat of Bradfield.Credit: Steven Siewert

The ALP snatched the Liberal seats of Banks and Hughes while teal independent Nicolette Boele is ahead in the north shore electorate of Bradfield, once considered a Liberal stronghold. The Nationals lost the regional seat of Calare to former National-turned-independent Andrew Gee.

Saturday’s electoral earthquake has effectively banished federal Liberals to Sydney’s outer suburban pockets.

If Boele wins Bradfield, independent candidates will hold five Sydney seats – the same tally as the Liberal Party in the city.

Sydney’s south deserts the Liberals

At the last election, despite a nationwide swing to Labor, the Liberals had relatively comfortable victories in Banks, in the Georges River area, and Hughes, which takes in parts of the Sutherland Shire.

Labor’s candidate for Banks, Zhi Soon (left), at a pre-polling station in Padstow with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on April 28.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

But the redistribution in NSW for this year’s election halved the Liberal margin in Hughes – from 7 per cent to 3.5 per cent – and reduced the margin in Banks to 2.6 per cent, making it the Liberals’ most vulnerable NSW seat.

Even so, the Liberal losses in southern Sydney were unexpected. Labor’s Zhi Soon gained a swing of almost 5 per cent to win Banks. In Hughes, Labor’s David Moncrieff prevailed with a swing of almost 6 per cent.

From marginal to safe

About 10 per cent of Australian voters live in western Sydney, making it a perennial electoral battleground. But the 2025 boundaries shifted a clutch of marginal Labor electorates in the region to safe status, and some safe Labor seats to ultra-safe.

In Bennelong – once held by former prime minister John Howard – a 2024 redistribution in NSW meant the two main parties were separated by a few hundred votes. A knife-edge result was expected, but Labor MP Jerome Laxale gained a swing of nearly 10 per cent and now holds the seat with a healthy buffer.

It was a similar story in neighbouring Parramatta, which over the past two decades had regularly switched between the main parties at federal, state and local council elections. The redistribution had reduced Labor’s margin in the federal seat to 3.7 per cent, suggesting a tight contest – but incumbent Parramatta MP Andrew Charlton gained a swing of more than 9 per cent and is on track to have a margin of about 13 per cent.

Bennelong and Parramatta are home to large Chinese-speaking communities, which appear to have swung strongly against the Peter Dutton-led Coalition.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Jodie Haydon, Minister for Finance, Minister for the Public Service, Minister for Women and Minister for Government Services Katy Gallagher and Labor MP for Bennelong, Jerome Laxale, head to Bar Italia in Leichhardt on Sunday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

At the Eastwood West polling booth, where more than 40 per cent of households speak a Chinese language, Liberals suffered a swing of nearly 20 per cent.

Electorates in north-western Sydney also swung decisively to Labor. In Greenway, which has been trending the Liberals’ way for two decades, the ALP gained a two-party preferred swing of more than 5 per cent, giving incumbent Michelle Rowland a buffer of well over 10 per cent.

In neighbouring Chifley, Labor frontbencher Ed Husic won more than 70 per cent of the two-party preferred vote after a 7 percentage point swing to the ALP in the already very safe seat.

Before the election, the ALP held eight NSW seats on a margin of 6 per cent or less; now, all but one of those is in the safe category.

With almost two-thirds of ballots counted, Labor’s two-party preferred vote in NSW was up 4 points at 55 per cent.

From heartland to marginal

In Berowra and Mitchell – two Liberal strongholds in Sydney’s north-west – the party had suffered swings of more than 6 per cent with 80 per cent of votes counted. Former Coalition frontbencher Julian Leeser, who holds the once ultra-safe seat of Berowra, will now be defending a marginal seat with a likely buffer of less than 2 per cent.

Also relegated to marginal status is Lindsay, the lone Liberal seat in Sydney’s west.

In Cook, once held by former prime minister Scott Morrison, the Liberals’ buffer was cut to 7 points after a 4 percentage point swing.

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor bucked the statewide trend with a 1 percentage point swing in his favour in Hume, south-west of Sydney.

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