‘We don’t want to be the sacrificial lamb’: The farmers hurt by Trump’s tariffs

Magnolia, Kentucky: Just down the road from Caleb Ragland’s farm in rural Kentucky is the birthplace of Abraham Lincoln. The great statesman’s parents moved in around the same time Ragland’s ancestors settled there in the early 1800s.

A ninth-generation farmer, Ragland is also the president of the American Soybean Association. So he knows a thing or two about the crop that feeds much of the world’s livestock and represents more than a fifth of US agricultural exports.

Ninth-generation farmer Caleb Ragland on his property in Magnolia, Kentucky.Credit: Luke Franke

And he is deeply worried about the impact of the trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump’s 145 per cent tariffs on China, to which Beijing has retaliated with almost identical duties.

“During the last trade war with China, I think 71 per cent of the agricultural losses came from soy,” Ragland said. “That’s a big number, and that’s why we are so vocal on this. We have a responsibility to our membership, our fellow farmers and farm families, who are – just like my family – trying to make a living.”

Kentucky is a solid red state, and Trump increased his vote to nearly 65 per cent in November. That’s especially true out on the farms. Ragland has voted for Trump each time and doesn’t regret it, but he is pleading with the president to strike a deal with Beijing that will cut the current tariffs – which in effect amount to a trade embargo – before the soybean harvest in October.

“The previous administration did little to nothing to promote trade. They just sat on their hands and didn’t do anything. So I appreciate the fact that President Trump is trying to get deals done,” Ragland said. “But on the flipside, as farmers and soybean farmers in particular, we don’t want to be the sacrificial lamb at the tip of the spear on this.”

Caleb Ragland’s soybeans are sent to a river port at Owensboro, Kentucky, about 160 kilometres from his farm. About half are exported.Credit: Luke Franke

Last year, the US shipped 27 million tonnes of soybeans to China, worth about $US12.8 billion ($20 billion). But as a proportion, soybean exports to China never fully recovered from the 2018 trade war. China now relies more heavily on Brazil, and, to a lesser extent, Argentina, Uruguay and Canada.

Plus, the wholesale price of soybeans has dropped 40 per cent over the past three years, from $US17 a bushel to $US10. “That’s a tough combination,” Ragland said. “Myself and most other farms, we want to make our living from the market. We want to get a fair price and basically not have any artificial barriers built up that hurt our ability to fully use the market and have trade.”

Ragland intends to plant his crop next month because there’s no real alternative. But he says he knows of farmers in the area who will sit this year out. Livelihoods are at stake, including his own.

Caleb Ragland worries he could be out of business within two years.Credit: Luke Franke

“I’m worried we could be out of business by 2027,” he wrote in an opinion piece for The Free Press. “All that history, heritage, blood, sweat and toil could vanish with the stroke of a pen.”

The worries for Kentucky farmers are compounded by recent floods. Up to 380mm of rain fell on parts of the Midwest farm belt in early April, the second bad flood this year after a February disaster that killed 22 people.

Reuters reported some farmers had planted their soybeans early this year, hoping to increase their yield to compensate for the tariff sting, only to have their fields flooded.

“I’m optimistic but also very nervous,” Micah Lester told Reuters from his farm near Cadiz, Kentucky. “It’s not like we are in a great [agriculture] economy. We don’t have any room to give.”

This week, Trump signalled the 145 per cent tariffs on China cannot last. He wanted Beijing to make a deal, he said, but if it didn’t, the US would just set a number. It would be substantially lower than 145 per cent, but not zero. He did not indicate how long he would wait to see if a deal could be made.

US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has said the administration would be prepared to again offer bailouts for farmers affected by the trade war, although it was too early to know what might be needed. In his first term, Trump doled out about $US23 billion in compensation, after an estimated $US27 billion in agricultural losses.

Ragland said there were conflicting reports about what the president had said, and to what extent Washington and Beijing were talking. “A drastic reduction in tariffs would certainly be welcome relief,” he said.

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