Gr-eight expectations: Our experts predict who will play finals

The field has narrowed, but the possibilities remain wide open just two rounds out from the end of the AFL’s fascinating 2024 home-and-away season.

The ladder has come to resemble a footballing version of snakes and ladders this season as teams rocket up the standings on the back of any win, or plummet several places each time they lose.

The pecking order at the top of the AFL ladder will be determined over the next two weeks.Credit: Monique Westerman

Heartbreaking losses for Collingwood (three points), Melbourne (two points) and Essendon (one point) last week put paid to their finals aspirations. At least that’s how this masthead’s experts see it.

We asked 11 of our regular footy scribes and tipsters – minus a couple in transit after covering some other sporting event in Paris – to look 10 days ahead in their crystal balls and tell us what the ladder will look like at 8.30pm on Sunday, August 25. By then, the final siren will have sounded on the last match of the 2024 home-and-away season – Fremantle v Port Adelaide in Perth.

While some consistent themes emerged from their predictions (for instance, they’ve all backed Sydney to hang on to top spot and win the minor premiership), the permutations were wide and varied.

Here’s a quick look at how each member of our footy expert XI expects the top eight to end up – their gr-eight expectations, if you will. And while we were at it, we cast our mind back to March – when they first got their crystal balls out – to see what their predicted top eight was before the season even started.

Jake Niall says: Fremantle have to win one – the last game versus Port in Perth is their best chance – while Carlton can’t drop either of their games. In my scenario, either the Blues will lose one to West Coast or St Kilda, or Freo will beat Port: only one has to happen for the Dockers to finish eighth. By winning both their games (against the Saints and West Coast), Geelong will rise above Port Adelaide and GWS to be second – a remarkable outcome.

Caroline Wilson says: I’m tipping the Blues will go some small way to resurrecting their season with back-to-back wins, despite their alarming ill health. Fremantle worry me with a couple of key outs, meaning the Bulldogs will sneak in despite losing to GWS in Ballarat in round 24. Sydney will finish the 2024 season home-and-away-season where they have spent the majority of the year – as ladder leaders – after last week’s defining close victory over Collingwood, and the MCG will host two finals in week one.

Libby Birch says: What a cracking finish to the season. Sydney will win the minor premiership as they only need to win one of their next two games against Essendon or Adelaide. GWS will miss out on top four due to percentage. Michael Voss will get his players up to win one of the next two games to ensure Carlton scrape into the eight, despite their injury woes. Fremantle will be unlucky due to their tough last two games. What really matters now is the side that gains the most momentum in the next two weeks before heading into finals.

Emma Kearney says: With an injury list mounting and percentage playing a key role, Carlton will just slip out of the top eight, despite potentially winning their last two games of the season. Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn and the Brisbane Lions are all playing teams outside the top eight, which will help secure their spots. I expect Geelong to get that top-four position, with the Lions just missing the four based on the Giants finishing the season with two wins.

Sam McClure says: The biggest story of the final eight surrounds the teams that won’t make it. Melbourne’s season has turned into a disaster, and the predicted dynasty of premierships may end with just one trophy. Reigning premiers Collingwood ran the gauntlet of too many close finishes too many times and their older list will now require a mini rebuild. But Carlton should be the headline. A team that made a preliminary final last year despite being asleep for the first half of the season. A list that is primed for a premiership run with generational players on every line. But a club that will again ultimately fail when the pressure gauge rises. It’s quite remarkable that, if my predictions are accurate, Sydney and Geelong will finish the season at the top of the ladder. Since the turn of the millennium, they have been the clubs that everyone else has been chasing. In September 2024, they will be the two teams that everyone is trying to stop.

Marc McGowan says: There are so many close to 50-50 games that need to go a certain way for this prediction to play out. The swing matches in the last fortnight include GWS v Fremantle, Port Adelaide v Adelaide, West Coast v Carlton, Western Bulldogs v GWS and Fremantle v Port Adelaide. I have the Power going 0-2 – both in nail-biters that could go the other way – and that needs to happen for red-hot Hawthorn to rise to fifth and host the only Melbourne-based final in the opening week. The Blues miss out in this scenario, on the assumption their injury woes will leave them vulnerable and they lose against the Eagles on Sunday.

Jon Pierik says: The big movers for me are Fremantle – falling from the top four to missing the finals within a month. I have backed the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Carlton to win their final two games, although it’s line-ball between the Blues and West Coast this weekend. The Bulldogs and Giants clash in a round 24 blockbuster. This season shapes as the Giants’ best chance for a flag. If the Blues tumble, they will face this major question: are they wasting what should be a premiership era with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow? Coach Ken Hinkley also needs to deliver for the Power after years of soft finals exits.

Peter Ryan says: Carlton are the main danger to those inside the eight, but they are no guarantee to win either of their final two matches. The make-up of my top eight is predicated on Port Adelaide losing both games and the Bulldogs defeating the Giants in the final round. That’s harsh on Port Adelaide, who have proven resilient throughout, but Showdowns are tough, and winning away the week after even tougher, while the Bulldogs are tough to toss in Ballarat.

Marnie Vinall says: Predicting anything at the end of this particular season feels like a fool’s errand, but alas here we are. Given the run home of these sides, this feels like how the eight will fall. My apologies to Carlton, who have just lost a bit of their grunt and grit of late, and I fear that will cost them a spot in September. Their best hope lies with Fremantle. The Dockers could easily fall out (and make way for the Blues) given they have two difficult final match-ups, but I’ll back them at home against Port Adelaide in the final round at Optus Stadium, which might just see them scrape through.

Andrew Wu says: Greater Western Sydney are the key side in the run home as they hold the fate of three other clubs in their hands: the Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton and, of course, their own. They’ll knock off the Dockers but the Dogs, with everything to play for, will beat them in Ballarat. With a soft finish, Geelong are in the box seat to finish second, perhaps even first, if Sydney slip up. A home final is within Hawthorn’s reach if they, as expected, continue their rampaging run, and I can see Port Adelaide, with a Showdown and a trip west, faltering and falling as far as seventh. As for injury-ravaged Carlton? Don’t rule out a backs-to-the-wall win this week to set up another nerve-racking final day of the season for their supporters. If they don’t, Collingwood can be the shock beneficiary if they can upset the Lions.

Kane Cornes says: My forecast for the next two weeks is pretty self-explanatory. I expect the favourites will win most games, and I’m also backing the Western Bulldogs to beat Greater Western Sydney in Ballarat. Fremantle v Port Adelaide in Perth shapes as the swing game, but even if the Dockers win that one, I don’t have them squeezing into the top eight.

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