‘Hungrier than ever’: Our experts preview the AFL season

A collection of our reporters’ best stories from the off-season and the biggest storylines heading into the new season. Plus, expert predictions for 2024.See all 15 stories.

Is this the year Marcus Bontempelli finally wins a Brownlow? Can the Suns finally rise in September, with Damien Hardwick in charge? Will it be back-to-back Rising Star awards for North Melbourne?

Our football experts have their say on this and more in our time capsule of predictions. What will the fans’ biggest gripe be, and which teams are set to rise and slide on the ladder? Keep reading to find out.

How will the 2024 season pan out? Scroll down to explore our team-by-team interactive, where our experts have assessed each club and provided their ladder predictions. Chief football writer Jake Niall weighs up every team, saying the Lions are best positioned to win a flag while predicting that GWS, Sydney and arch-rivals Carlton will finish ahead of the reigning premier Pies this year.

There’s a consensus that West Coast will be taking home the wooden spoon again this year. But at the other end of the ladder, only one expert thinks the Pies will be back at the summit, while seven think that 2024 is when the Brisbane Lions will win the flag. Or could this be the year of the navy blue rising? Two of our experts think so.

The Suns have not made an appearance in the finals, a cloud hanging over the expansion club’s short history. Is this the year they finally make it to September? Eight of our experts think it is, but less than half think that Port Adelaide will make it back in 2024 – and even fewer think the Bulldogs will be there.

While most of our experts agree that it will be Nick Daicos or Bontempelli who is crowned the league’s best and fairest, one expert thinks Charlie (Curnow) will take home Charlie this year.

Niall, Caroline Wilson and Michael Gleeson are back for the Real Footy podcast every Monday. And there will be a second weekly podcast episode dropping on the first day of each round this season, with our experts Andrew Wu and Peter Ryan tipping each match.

Emma Kearney

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli. Strong in the contest and has hard running capacity. Tough match-up whether playing mid or forward.
Rising Star: Colby McKercher. Smooth mover who uses the ball well and takes the game on with his line-breaking ability. Looking forward to seeing him team up with Harry Sheezel and co. off the half-back line.
Story of the season: Is Luke Beveridge the man to coach the Dogs? Can he return them to the top where they should be, given their talent?
On the rise: Gold Coast. Can this be the season they make their first finals appearance? With “Dimma” leading the charge, the Suns will be more physical and have a faster game style than before.
On the slide: Richmond. They’ll go through a small rebuild as they re-establish their identity under new coach Adem Yze. They’ll be looking for leadership from their younger guys after the retirements of club greats Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards.
Headline you won’t see: Any score review controversy that potentially costs teams a spot in the finals.
Fans’ biggest gripe: The Maynard rule. I’m sure fans will heavily debate this topic throughout the year if players get suspended.

Colby McKercher is expected to star in his first year at senior level.Credit: Justin McManus

Caroline Wilson

Brownlow: Tom Green.
Rising Star: Daniel Curtin.
Story of the season: The resurgence of the Carlton Football Club.
On the rise: Footy in Queensland. The code continues to surge as Brisbane reach consecutive grand finals and Gold Coast finally play September football.
On the slide: Indigenous playing numbers, forcing policy change by the AFL Commission.
Headline you won’t see: Bulldogs extend Luke Beveridge’s contract
Fans’ biggest gripe: New, harsher penalties laid down by the judiciary.

Jake Niall

Brownlow: Nick Daicos. Missed a chunk of games at the end of last season but still polled heavily and went close despite effectively missing four games. Will stand out even more in 2024.
Rising Star: Colby McKercher. The Roos are on the mend and will have a young gun win the award for the second year in a row.
Story of the season: A past incident resurfacing as scandal.
On the rise: Sydney. There’s a lot of room for improvement for the Swans, who won 11 games but led 17 at three-quarter-time in 2023.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. They finished 2023 with just three wins from nine games and their defensive and forward-half set-ups don’t convince, despite having three guns mids. The Demons could slide a little.
Headline you won’t see: AFL CEO was paid $...
Fans’ biggest gripe: Half-time “entertainment” – the aural bombardment during breaks.

Mathew Stokes

Brownlow: Tom Green. With the rise of GWS, this contested beast will be the main reason they take the next step.
Rising Star: George Wardlaw. North Melbourne have a great young core of midfielders ready to help the club up the ladder and George might end up being the best. Great football brain with great mix of decision-making and leadership.
Story of the season: Geelong aren’t finished. Dad’s army has one more crack at it, with their top-tier players better than most, the young guys coming through will give them the lift to make it to September.
On the rise: North Melbourne. I believe this group feeds off the decisions made around the footy department and those in it. They’ll keep a lot of clubs accountable come match day.
On the slide: Melbourne. This off-season will either be the start or end for this group and will test the leadership at the club. I think this is the start of a slide down the ladder.
Headline you won’t see: Charlie Curnow fails in finals again. With experience under his belt, and understanding of what’s needed from the superstars of the competition, he will bounce back in this year’s finals series.
Fans’ biggest gripe: The AFL still not getting the match review panel right and the inconsistencies of it.

Is there hope in 2024 for the ageing Cats?Credit: AFL Photos

Michael Gleeson

Brownlow: Nick Daicos.
Rising Star: Ethan Read.
Story of the season: From Clayton Oliver to Joel Smith to losing finals, Melbourne are the 2024 storyline.
On the rise: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. He will have a breakout year.
On the slide: Fremantle. They got younger after playing finals two seasons ago.
Headline you won’t see: We want more rule changes: AFL fan survey
Fans’ biggest gripe: TV commentators.

Libby Birch

Brownlow: Nick Daicos. Undeniably a standout year last season and was unlucky to have suffered an injury late in the season, costing him votes. Nothing will stop the youngster this year!
Rising Star: Colby McKercher. An unbelievable kick of the footy with smart decision-making skills.
Story of the season: Cats miss finals again.
On the rise: Adelaide. After narrowly missing the finals in 2023, this team will be hungrier than ever.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. Did the slide start in last year’s straight-set exit from finals?
Headline you won’t see: Gillon McLachlan returns to the fold
Fans’ biggest gripe: All hotels booked out for Gather Round!

Greg Baum

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli. Because he just should.
Rising Star: Harley Reid. That level of hype cannot be misplaced.
Story of the season: AFL makes a helmet compulsory for any player who has previously been diagnosed with concussion.
On the rise: Having abandoned their old bloodletting ways, the Blues have built methodically and calmly and are now ready to take the last great leap.
On the slide: Not a slide in the calamitous sense, but the ageing Cats are still in the process of an unavoidable correction.
Headline you won’t see: Umpiring standards at all-time high, says coach
Fans’ biggest gripe: The media hates my team.

Top draft pick Harley Reid.Credit: Getty Images

Jon Pierik

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli. Surely, it’s time for “the Bont” to get over the line. He fell two votes short last year, and has now polled more than 20 votes in four different counts. If the Dogs go well, the Bont will be the man to beat.
Rising Star: George Wardlaw. The North Melbourne hardnut was eased through his rookie season, but has impressed over summer. If the Kangaroos are to rise, Wardlaw will be in the thick of the action.
Story of the season: The Suns believe finals are within their grasp this season, with new coach Damien Hardwick to sprinkle his Tiger magic over the club. But what if things don’t go to plan? And keep an eye on Dustin Martin shifting north.
On the rise: The Swans were a disappointment last season, slipping into the finals and losing to the Blues in the opening week of September. The post-Buddy Franklin era is now under way, and the Swans have talent to burn.
On the slide: Tough one, but do the Saints have enough A-graders to hang on to a spot in the top eight? Adem Yze has begun a refresh at Punt Road, but there is likely pain ahead as the premiership era fades into a distant memory.
Headline you won’t see: When is Gill leaving?
Fans’ biggest gripe: Grand final ticket allocation for club members.

Andrew Wu

Brownlow: Nick Daicos. Was on his way to winning it last year before injury struck. He should be just as good this year in a team that should again contend, so there’s no reason why he can’t poll well again.
Rising Star: Ryley Sanders. Unlike other favourites Harley Reid, George Wardlaw and Colby McKercher, this ready-made young pup does not carry the added burden of being his club’s great hope, yet should still play a prominent enough role to catch the eye.
Story of the season: Demons to rebound from their hellish off-season to have another crack at a high-flying flag. Whatever happens, we’ll all be keeping our eyes on the red and the blue.
On the rise: Gold Coast. To borrow a political phrase, “it’s time”. After 13 years of failure, there are no more excuses for the Suns. With the arrival of a premiership coach and a talent-laden list that has served its apprenticeship, they must reach a historic first finals series. Or at the very least come agonisingly close.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. The holes in Port’s defence and ruck became bigger as 2023 went on, and I’m not sure the fringe players they brought in from other clubs are the panacea. The younger half of their list is strong but the top end has thinned. Their reliance on a 33-year-old Charlie Dixon is a worry. Finals will be a battle.
Headline you won’t see: AFL’s climate change play: League turns back on night footy and TV dollars, day grand final here to stay
Fans’ biggest gripe: The AFL must act to restore the integrity of the draft, but not until my club also gets a crack at a cut-price father/son or academy pick.

Marc McGowan

Brownlow: Tom Green. I am fully aboard the Green bandwagon. Great personality, and even better footballer – and the Giants should be good again.
Rising Star: Sam Darcy. All this giant young pup needs to tear the competition apart is an injury-free campaign. Darcy is a do-it-all big at the forefront of the club’s generation next.
Story of the season: Another wasted year for Melbourne as off-field controversies derail flag assault.
On the rise: Adelaide. The league’s No.1 offence last season has some exciting, emerging players, and it would not surprise if they rocket well inside the top eight.
On the slide: Geelong. Yeah, yeah, we’ve called it for years, but it’s no longer a bold call to suggest these Cats are finals longshots.
Headline you won’t see: Brisbane bridesmaids again
Fans’ biggest gripe: A tie between gambling advertising and food prices at venues.

Star on the rise: Tom Green.Credit: Getty Images

Peter Ryan

Brownlow: Marcus Bontempelli. Runner-up in the medal voting twice in the past three years, the champion will give it a shake again.
Rising Star: George Wardlaw. With a year under his belt, he will dominate games.
Story of the season: Match decided by Federal Court as lawyers take over every aspect of the competition.
On the rise: Western Bulldogs. Can a souffle rise twice? I think the Dogs can.
On the slide: Port Adelaide. A good team that has been up for so long will begin a quick transition period.
Headline you won’t see: Score review process scrapped in favour of goal umpire’s call
Fans’ biggest gripe: The noise from fans who are being told to make some noise by ground announcers can’t be heard above the noise coming through the ground’s loudspeakers.

Kane Cornes

Brownlow: Errol Gulden.
Rising Star: Colby McKercher.
Story of the season: The AFL has achieved its utopia of having a competition as evenly poised as ever. There should be optimism for clubs such as Adelaide, Gold Coast and Essendon, who have experienced a long finals drought. Conversely, there are serious concerns over teams that have had recent success, such as Melbourne, whose culture is highly questionable, and the Western Bulldogs – particularly the future of underperforming coach Luke Beveridge – and whether the Geelong players can defy their birth certificates and rise again. Fifteen teams could play finals, but 15 doesn’t go into eight.
On the rise: Adelaide.
On the slide: Richmond.
Headline you won’t see: Melbourne CEO Gary Pert and coach Simon Goodwin admit their heads were in the sand over ridiculous club culture statements.
Fans’ biggest gripe: Underperforming clubs such as North Melbourne being rewarded for poor performance with draft handouts.

Sam McClure

Brownlow: Charlie Curnow.
Rising Star: Jed Walter.
Story of the season: West Coast and North Melbourne drift further away from the rest of the competition, with the other 16 teams playing out one of the tightest seasons the game has ever seen.
On the rise: Gold Coast. As Damien Hardwick told Michael Gleeson, the time for gimmicks is over; it’s time to start winning bloody games! And they will. With a plethora of talent at the disposal of a triple-premiership coach, the Suns will finally see September for the first time.
On the slide: Fremantle. Apart from a sturdy defence and a gut-running midfield, the Dockers will pay for a toothless forward line and brittle leadership. Perhaps they went too hard too soon at Luke Jackson.
Headline you won’t see: Cats continue to cruise at Kardinia. For the first time in a long time, teams will begin to pick off Geelong at their home ground.
Fans’ biggest gripe: Concussion v the purity of the game. Is the AFL going too far in its determination to mitigate against head injuries by continuing to tweak the rules? The fans will ultimately be confused.

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