Rise of the tombstone suburb: Wealthy Sydney areas where deaths outnumber births

The share of Sydney suburbs where deaths outnumber births has almost trebled in the past five years as the effects of population ageing reshapes neighbourhoods across the city.

There were more deaths than births in 12 per cent of Sydney suburbs last financial year, up from only 4 per cent in 2017-18, Bureau of Statistics regional population figures show.

Deaths outnumber births in a growing share of Sydney suburbs.Credit: Louise Kennerley

Greater Sydney had 4000 more deaths during the year to June 2023 than over the same period five years earlier.

In Castle Hill East, deaths outstripped births by 214 in 2022-23, more than any neighbourhood in the Sydney Basin. The next largest natural population declines were in Sylvania-Taren Point (-119), Turramurra (-113) and Hunters Hill-Woolwich (-113).

The gap between births and deaths in the whole of Greater Sydney has been narrowing; in 2017–18 births outnumbered deaths across the metropolitan area by 37,636 but by last financial year that had fallen to 28,511, a decline of 24 per cent.

Despite this trend, strong overseas migration meant Sydney’s population grew by 2.8 per cent in 2022-23, a faster rate than at any time in the past two decades. The city added 147,000 people in the year, lifting the population to 5.45 million.

Natural population increase or decline (a measure of births minus deaths) is one of the three drivers of local population, along with the movement of people within Australia and overseas migration.

Deaths either outnumbered births or were roughly equivalent to births in many wealthy suburbs on Sydney’s north shore, northern beaches and eastern suburbs in 2022-23.

Some neighbourhoods where deaths outnumbered births, such as Castle Hill East, have a concentration of aged care facilities and an above-average share of elderly residents.

Sydney’s fertility rate, the average number of children a woman can be expected to have, has also declined. It fell from 1.85 in 2013 to a historic low of 1.6 in 2022, well below the 2.1 “replacement rate” needed to maintain a stable population, not including migration.

Nick Parr, honorary professor of demography at Macquarie University, said the combination of an ageing population and a falling birth rate was changing the demography of Sydney.

“If the birth rate remains low, we will see this pattern of more deaths than births spreading around the country,” he said. “But that’s not to say Australia’s population will start to fall, because immigration would continue to more than offset that negative natural increase.”

Parr said the COVID-19 pandemic was another factor in the lower rate of natural population increase.

“In 2022, we had an elevated death rate because COVID-related deaths actually grew after restrictions such as lockdowns and border closures were lifted,” he said.

Outer urban areas with a relatively high share of younger couples had the highest natural population increases led by the north-western suburb of Schofields-East, where there were 502 more births than deaths in 2022-23. Next highest was the nearby suburb of Marsden Park-Shanes Park (386) and Oran Park (394) in Sydney’s south-west.

In parts of the Central Coast popular with retirees, deaths outnumbered births by a significant margin including Erina-Green Point (-245), Bateau Bay-Killarney Vale (-96) and Toukley-Norah Head (-74).

There were also significant natural population declines in the Mid North Coast and Southern Highlands.

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