Claims of widespread fraud as ex-military strongman is declared Indonesian president

Indonesia’s election commission has confirmed Prabowo Subianto as the nation’s next president, formalising the resounding victory heralded last month in unofficial counts, and stirring in earnest the protests of his defeated rivals who claim widespread fraud.

Former governors Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo finished second and third, respectively, and will formally contest the result in the Indonesian Constitutional Court. It is a strategy deployed unsuccessfully by Prabowo himself after losing to incumbent Joko Widodo in 2014 and 2019.

Prabowo Subianto with his running mate, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, after the Indonesian elections on February 14. Credit: AP

Prabowo and his legally contentious but apparently masterful choice of vice presidential running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka – Joko’s eldest son – scored more than 58 per cent of the nationwide vote. The ease of their victory, greater than the predictions of pre-election polls, eliminates the need for a bruising second-round in June.

Anies and running mate Muhaimin Iskander recorded close to 25 per cent of the vote. Ganjar and Mahfud MD polled almost 17 per cent.

The Anies team filed its claim to the court on Thursday. Spokesman Ari Yusuf Amir said the “core problem” for many was Gibran’s eligibility owing to his young age and a controversial court decision that allowed him to run anyway.

Ari hoped the legal action would result in a re-election with Joko’s son disqualified as a candidate for vice-president.

“Replace him. Let’s compete with honesty – fairly and freely,” he said.

If the court action goes nowhere, the hot-tempered Prabowo, 72, would formally assume the presidency from Jokowi, as Joko is commonly known, in October. The stage would also be set for Gibran to run for president in five years’ time.

The election commission, or KPU, announced the results on Wednesday night local time (about 1.30am AEDT).

Ganjar Pranowo was an early presidential favourite until incumbent Joko Widodo appeared to switch camps to Prabowo. Credit: Bloomberg

Prabowo is the wealthy former son-in-law of corrupt autocrat Suharto, and has been credibly accused of historical human rights abuses while a commander of Indonesia’s special forces. They are claims he denies.

The Australian government does not comment on his history, but does refer to the time Prabowo spent studying at the Royal Military of College in Duntroon, Canberra.

Despite their bitter election history, Prabowo and Joko left any lingering enmity aside for what observers put down to political expediency. Following deadly 2019 post-election street protests in Jakarta, Joko brought the powerful ex-military strongman into his political tent as defence minister.

The pair has since been accused of underhanded co-operation to engineer mutually beneficial political ends: Prabowo, the presidency, and Joko, who is constitutionally barred from a third term in office, ongoing political influence through son Gibran and Prabowo’s pledge of policy continuity.

It is through this prism that Anies and Ganjar make their claims of dirty tricks. They broadly relate to the supposed government manipulation of state institutions and the selective distribution of rice and cash to aid the Prabowo campaign.

The coalition of parties lining up behind Anies and Ganjar may also push for a parliamentary inquiry into the Joko government’s perceived meddling.

“Jokowi himself distributed social assistance in the middle of the campaign, and while this was not illegal, the context in which this distribution occurred made it a massive operation of vote-buying,” ANU Associate Professor Marcus Mietzner said.

“Having said this, Prabowo would have won the election even without these interventions. Most likely, he would have won in a run-off instead of the first round.

“But after Jokowi’s de facto endorsement of Prabowo in October, Prabowo’s victory was never in doubt. In this sense, Jokowi unnecessarily tainted the reputation of Indonesian democracy by impatiently pushing for a first-round victory.”

One of the most egregious examples of interference, according to critics, was a decision by the Constitutional Court (the same court to which Anies and Ganjar will take their complaints) that cleared the way for 36-year-old Gibran to run as vice president.

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto delivers a campaign speech at a rally inside Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium in Jakarta on February 10.Credit: AP

Chief Justice Anwar Usman – Joko’s brother-in-law – cast the nine-member panel’s deciding vote that ruled his nephew’s previous election win as incoming mayor of Solo was grounds enough to bypass the mandated vice president age floor of 40.

Kholil Pasaribu, a former KPU official, likened the 2024 election and its run-up to a “messy” version of the sham democracy under Suharto’s “New Order” regime.

“The New Order carried out frauds neatly so that they did not appear clearly to the public,” Kholil said. “But this time, it is clearly displayed. The president meddled in the election process, and he campaigned for a certain candidate.”

The Joko clan has denied any interference. Usman was later sanctioned by an ethics committee for his role in the Gibran decision. He will not sit on a panel hearing the complaints of Anies and Ganjar.

The world’s biggest single-day elections on February 14, which involved more than 800,000 polling stations spanning 6000 inhabited islands, were seen to run relatively smoothly given their logistical complexity.

Protesters put up flags and posters on a razor wire barricade as police officers stand guard during a rally alleging a widespread fraud in the presidential election, outside the General Election Commission’s office in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Wednesday.Credit: AP

But the KPU has since been accused of incompetence or worse amid claims of inflated vote numbers for particular candidates or parties.

One of those parties, PSI, is chaired by Joko’s youngest son Kaesang Pangarep. The storm surrounding this and other alleged irregularities prompted the KPU to take down its online vote count earlier this month, meaning the process could no longer be followed by civil society groups, further fuelling public scepticism.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles (right) with Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta in February.Credit: AP

Ganjar’s ticket under the banner of the PDIP, Joko’s party, was the early favourite until the wildly popular president appeared to shift his tacit endorsement towards the Prabowo camp.

Observers say Joko is looking to consolidate his presidential legacy and hold a form of power by nurturing a family dynasty – the antithesis of his own enduring appeal as the everyman who rose to power from outside Indonesia’s ruling elite.

Joko’s son-in-law Bobby Nasution is the mayor of Medan. Prabowo in January endorsed Bobby as the next governor of Sumatra.

Hundreds of people rally in Jakarta yesterday to demand the impeachment of Indonesian President Joko Widodo on allegations of meddling in the presidential election.Credit: AP

Most prominent of Joko’s next generation, however, is his son Gibran, a culinary entrepreneur who as a younger man showed little interest in politics until he followed in his father’s footsteps by running for Solo mayor and winning.

While appealing to younger voters otherwise ignorant of the ageing president-elect’s past, Prabowo’s choice of Gibran as his running mate was also taken as a signal to the electorate of Joko’s backing.

Some Indonesia watchers are sure the nation’s relatively young democracy (the Suharto regime collapsed in 1998) is strong enough to keep Prabowo in check even if he ends up going rogue. Others, including powerful sections of the media, fear otherwise.

The Jakarta Post editorialised on Tuesday the country “could soon be back in the dark ages that marked the dictatorship under Suharto” and that “civil society had every reason to be concerned about the future of democracy and freedom”.

None of the citizen protests since February 14 have caused security forces much concern. This may change with the results now confirmed, but the current Muslim observance of Ramadan could also be a moderating factor.

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