‘Gentler’ strongman Prabowo looks to have scored first-round knockout

Jakarta: Former Indonesian general Prabowo Subianto, a two-time runner-up with a murky past as a military strongman, is poised for an outright first-round victory in his bid to lead the world’s third-largest democracy.

Indonesia’s historically reputable “quick counts” were performed by multiple organisations following Wednesday’s poll. They indicated Prabowo has the necessary votes to avoid a June run-off against either Ganjar Pranowo or Anies Baswedan.

Presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto (right) and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka during a gathering with supporters on Wednesday.Credit: AP

If confirmed as expected by the official tally next month, the 72-year-old will fulfil a decades-long dream of high office. Victory would also install Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36-year-old son of popular incumbent Joko Widodo, as the nation’s vice president.

The early count for the biggest single-day election on Earth showed former Jakarta governor Anies was in second place and former Central Java governor Ganjar in third.

Eddy Soeparno, the vice chairman of Prabowo’s campaign team, told Bloomberg he may invite his rivals and parties to join his government as he seeks to consolidate power.

President and vice president tickets must secure more than 50 per cent of the national vote and at least 20 per cent of the vote in at least 20 of 38 provinces. The Prabowo-Gibran pair is on track to meet those conditions comfortably.

A convoy of supporters of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto poses for photos on the way to the quick count.Credit: Getty

“The campaigning has worked, would be my immediate reaction,” said Ian Wilson, an Indonesia politics expert at Murdoch University.

“The rebranding of Prabowo has worked. It shows the popularity of Jokowi [Joko Widodo] and that whole argument of continuity and people not wanting dramatic change has worked.”

Prabowo and Gibran stepped onto the stage at a Jakarta indoor sports stadium to thank their campaign and supporters at 7.45pm on Wednesday (11.45pm AEDT).

“I say it again, we will take care of all Indonesians regardless [of] their ethnicity and social background,” Prabowo said. “We will arrange a government team with the nation’s best sons and daughters. We will keep waiting for the official results from the Electoral Commission – we are sure Indonesian democracy works well.

Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto shows a ballot during the election in Bojong Koneng, Indonesia.Credit: AP

“We are a big nation, we are a rich nation – that’s why other powers envy us and therefore we must be solid, united and keep harmony.”

Their apparent early victory, defying the expectations of many analysts and polls, eliminates the threat of second-round co-operation between Anies and Ganjar, and would spare the ageing Prabowo months of additional campaigning. The official tally will be released on March 20.

Prabowo lost presidential elections to Jokowi in 2014 and 2019 as a firebrand nationalist and disgruntled Islamist, respectively. This campaign, he and his army of spin doctors successfully rebranded him as an affable, grandfatherly figure who dances and loves animals.

Significantly, Prabowo promised in the campaign to continue the policy legacy of Jokowi, who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term and will leave the presidency in October. The rapprochement began with Joko appointing Prabowo defence minister in 2019.

The softly-spoken Joko climbed to power from outside the nation’s ruling elite and governed with action and pragmatism, endearing him to ordinary Indonesians and powering economic growth.

While he has been widely criticised for weakening key democratic institutions, recent polling showed his support in office is close to 80 per cent after 10 years.

A woman casts her ballot at a polling station during the election in Medan, Indonesia.Credit: AP

More than once during Prabowo’s victory speech, when referencing the sitting president, the crowd erupted into chants of “Jokowi”.

Depending on who’s being asked, Prabowo’s selection of Gibran as his running mate – broadly perceived as a means for Joko to maintain some form of political influence – is either symbolic of stability or unwelcome dynasty-building.

Satinah, a 55-year-old housewife from the poor side of the Jakarta neighbourhood Simprug Golf 2, voted for Prabowo “due to Jokowi”.

“Since Jokowi became president, my son can get educational insurance [a policy providing financial relief for school supplies], so I will continue my support.”

Prabowo’s past contains allegations of human rights abuses in Timor-Leste and of fomenting deadly anti-Chinese riots in 1998, charges he has long denied. But he was dismissed by the military following the fall of dictator Suharto in 1998 for his role in the abduction of democracy activists, 12 of whom remain missing. He says he has no knowledge of where they are or what happened to them.

Putri Elma, a first-time voter, shows the inked finger proving she has already cast her ballot.Credit: Amelia Rosa

Successive US administrations nonetheless barred him from entry, until Joko brought him into his tent in 2019.

More than 200 million Indonesians were eligible to vote in the presidential and legislative elections to install close to 20,000 politicians across 6000 inhabited islands.

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