It’s unequivocal: Victorians are concerned about the escalating climate crisis and the state of the environment, and want more coverage of these issues.

As part of our Victoria’s Agenda project, our reporters sounded you out across the state over the past few weeks. In Bendigo, we spoke with walnut farmer Mark Jankelson, a Redesdale resident, at the local farmers market. His most pressing concern was climate change and its effects on his business. His walnut farm has seen long periods of rain in spring, which causes blight, but also blistering heat. Sustained high temperatures over 40 degrees burns the walnut crop.

“I’m starting to lose hope. As a farmer, we are seeing the impact,” Jankelson said. “I want to know that these issues are recognised by the parties coming in. Long term, I worry about my kids. Short term, it’s all about mitigation.”

Resolve polling commissioned by The Age showed that among 18- to 24-year-old voters, almost half said they wanted more coverage of the environment, and the number was even higher for the over-45s.

Your specific concerns varied, although there were common themes. You told us you wanted to know how politicians would handle the transition away from polluting fossil fuels. One woman over 45 told us she wanted “A detailed and costed plan to roll out electric vehicle charging in Victoria”.

You said you were concerned the environment had “dropped off the radar” during the pandemic, and wanted it back on centre stage. Some subscribers said they wanted the government to stop logging native forests, or protect endangered species or have quotas for retaining trees in new suburbs.

None of this should come as a surprise. The 2022 federal “climate” election showed a tectonic shift in voting as Greens swept into the lower house and Senate, and high-profile Liberal MPs lost their long-held seats to “teal” independents. The question now in Victoria is, which side is credibly prepared to do enough to satisfy the wishes of the electorate for more action?

So, what are Victoria’s targets?

The Andrews government has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 28 to 33 per cent for 2025, on 2005 levels, and 45 to 50 per cent by 2030. Like many jurisdictions, the state has a long-term target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

It now looks likely that Victoria will reach and overshoot its 2030 target. The government’s most recent figures, released in September, reveal the state cut emissions by almost 30 per cent by 2020 – almost doubling its target of a 15 to 20 per cent reduction. The largest decreases were in the electricity sector, with a reduction of 2.2 million tonnes of emissions.

Now environment groups are urging the Minister for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Lily D’Ambrosio, to ramp up Victoria’s ambition. The energy sector remains our largest source of emissions, but a 15 per cent boost in renewable energy generation between 2019 and 2020 has helped reduce that.

How will the government and major parties get there?

So far, programs such as Solar Homes, which provides eligible householders with rebates for items like solar panels, have been highly effective. There has also been a surge in renewable energy generation, driven by targets designed to act as a siren song to investors.

Victoria has Australia’s most ambitious renewable energy battery storage target; the country’s first offshore wind target; and renewable energy “zones” across the state, where clean energy from large-scale wind and solar projects will be sent to populous areas. The state’s renewable electricity generation is at 30 per cent. In March, the Liberal opposition shifted its stance on climate change, saying it would now support a net-zero emissions target by 2050. More recently, it announced it would go a step further than the Andrews government and legislate the 50 per cent by 2030 target.

The Liberal Party has also promised to establish a $1 billion hydrogen strategy, establish a taskforce to fix the state’s ageing power grid, and upgrade transmission infrastructure in western Victoria.

The Victorian Greens have a higher target for reducing emissions – 80 per cent by 2030 and net zero by 2035, or sooner. They have also a policy to get 1 million Victorian homes off gas.

Over the next six weeks, we will be exploring whether these pledges are credible.

What could Victoria do to reach its target?

Victorian environment groups want a faster transition from fossil fuels and bolder, deeper cuts to emissions. They’re calling for even greater investment in clean-energy technologies.

At a conversation between environment and climate experts, organised by The Age for its Agenda, there was a strong sense of urgency about emissions reduction. They reminded us that the UN has warned humanity needs to take drastic action within the next eight years to have any chance of keeping global average temperature rise at, or close to 1.5 degrees. This means decisive action taken within this decade by the next Victorian government – and all governments – is critically important.

“This election cycle will determine if our energy transition and emissions reductions happen fast enough,” says Environment Victoria chief executive Jono La Nauze. “Emissions from burning coal are on a downwards trajectory – the next big issues are oil and gas.”

The Australian Energy Market Operator’s planning scenarios now anticipate Victoria’s electricity grid will be powered by at least 90 per cent renewable energy and no coal by 2032 because renewables with storage are more reliable and cheaper.

To reduce greenhouse gas pollution, Victoria needs to reduce transport emissions. Transport remains the second most polluting sector in the state. Infrastructure Victoria, the state’s key infrastructure adviser, recently said the state should stop the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2035.

And there will be an increasing focus on gas. About 20 per cent of Australia’s emissions come from gas, according to the Grattan Institute, and almost half of the nation’s total residential gas consumption is used solely to heat Victorian homes.

These are the issues we hope to see politicians discuss during the election campaign. If they don’t raise them, we’ll ask the questions for you because you’ve identified how important it is to see action on the climate crisis, both locally and globally.

**Update - 25/10/22: Since this article was published, the Andrews government has announced new renewable energy targets for Victoria – 65 per cent by 2030, and 95 per cent by 2035.

It has also set an emissions target of 75-80 per cent by 2035, and brought forward its net zero emissions target by five years to 2045.

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