Where to from here for Ukraine’s battered leader?

When Volodymyr Zelensky stood before Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, in May 2019 to be sworn in as the country’s new president, the then 41-year-old political novice offered a different style of leadership.

“The president is not an icon,” he said in his inauguration speech. “I don’t want my portraits to hang in your offices ... Hang pictures of your children there and look them in the eyes before every decision.”

With 73.2 per cent of the vote, he entered office with hopes for real change. But today, the former comedian turned wartime leader has transformed. His once-youthful face is hardened by conflict, his clean-shaven appearance replaced by a beard, and his casual attire swapped for combat fatigues, a uniform he has worn since Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022.

The strain showing: Volodymyr Zelensky on Fox News in the hours after his clash with Donald Trump.Credit: AP

For much of that time, he’s had the unwavering support of the democratic world. There are few murals of him in his home nation, but plenty on the streets of London, Berlin and New York. More than once, he has been described as the Winston Churchill of his generation.

But unconditional support from Washington has almost vanished in the past fortnight. US President Donald Trump first dubbed Zelensky a “dictator without elections” and blamed him for starting the war. The already fragile relationship between the pair sank to a new low on Friday as efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine-Russia war reached a boiling point.

What was meant to be a show of diplomatic unity quickly spiralled into a public confrontation. During a high-profile meeting, Zelensky accused Moscow of being untrustworthy in peace talks, while Trump, joined by US Vice President J.D. Vance, sharply criticised Zelensky’s handling of the war.

The spat, which came after more than 40 minutes of polite engagement, took a sharp turn when Vance posed an eyebrow-raising question: “Have you said ‘thank you’ once?”

Zelensky offered a pointed rebuttal, and the fallout was swift.

After three years of full-scale war, Zelensky appeared visibly stressed during the exchange, which was conducted in English. Although he has learnt the language, he is not yet fluent and struggles with speaking and understanding it fully.

Happier times: Zelensky in 2019, in the days after he was elected president of Ukraine.Credit: AP

The Oval Office clash not only derailed a crucial opportunity to secure stronger backing for Ukraine’s defence but also put the country’s relationship with key international allies at risk. For Trump, it represented a setback to his ambitious goal of brokering a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, one that has been central to his political rhetoric.

Where does it go from here?

Zelensky’s relationship with the White House appears to many to be beyond repair, largely due to Trump’s long-standing personal grudge against the Ukrainian leader, who he feels has consistently supported his US political rivals.

Leslie Shedd, a non-resident fellow at the US-based Eurasia Centre and a former senior adviser to Republican members of the US Congress, says regardless of who’s to blame for the blow-up, a quick apology and a media tour “focused on changing hearts and minds” with various conservative friendly outlets is needed.

On social media platform X, Zelensky extended a series of heartfelt acknowledgments, offering gratitude to the United States for its unwavering support during Ukraine’s ongoing battle against Russian aggression.

“We are very grateful to the United States for all the support. I’m thankful to President Trump, Congress for their bipartisan support, and the American people. Ukrainians have always appreciated this support, especially during these three years of full-scale invasion,” he posted.

But Shedd says Zelensky’s refusal to directly apologise to Trump in a Fox News interview on Friday night “makes restoring his relationship with Trump much harder”.

She says Zelensky should still try to revive a deal to allow the US to share Ukraine’s mineral wealth, in part because it “further incentivised US support for Ukraine”, given the US “can’t access the minerals until Ukraine is free from war and from further Russian aggression”.

Following Trump’s demands last week for fresh Ukrainian elections before a peace deal could be reached, the Verkhovna Rada passed a resolution affirming Zelensky’s legitimacy as president and confirming no elections can be held until the lifting of martial law after a “just and lasting peace”.

Oleksiy Arestovych, a former adviser to Zelensky who resigned in 2023 and is now a vocal opponent of the president and plans to run in future presidential elections, wrote on X that he believed his former leader had “crossed the line” in the Oval Office.

“It is clear President Trump wants to help find a negotiated peace, one that satisfies both sides,” Arestovych wrote.

“President Zelensky should not have reacted to President Trump as if his position was his ‘final’ position, but rather understand the real negotiating takes place behind closed doors, not in front of the media.”

Could Zelensky resign?

Before the events of the past few days, about 63 per cent of Ukrainians approved of Zelensky’s actions as president, according to a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The result – higher than in previous surveys – is at odds with Trump’s claim, made without providing evidence, that Zelensky has a “4 per cent approval rating”.

But of concern to Zelensky will have been the comments of Republican senator Lindsey Graham, who has been one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine in the party. Graham had warned the Ukrainian leader “don’t take the bait” before his meeting with Trump, and afterwards called on him to resign if he didn’t “change”.

Former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky’s main domestic political rival, says it is not the time to criticise him, but he hopes his successor has a “plan B”.

While Zelensky earlier this month offered to step down for the sake of peace and NATO membership for Ukraine, he told Fox News on Friday night he would not resign following the contentious exchange with Trump.

However, Zelensky could consider resigning if he believes his leadership is becoming a hindrance to Ukraine’s future. Should that happen, the Speaker of parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, could temporarily take over, with former military commander Valery Zaluzhny emerging as a potential contender if elections were held.

Zelensky inspects damage to the town of Vyshgorod, outside Kyiv, in November 2022.Credit: AP

‘Turning in his grave’

But Europe has made it clear where it stands. Senior British Conservative MP Robert Jenrick says he was sickened by the “degrading spectacle” of the Trump-Zelensky meeting, noting a bust of Churchill was in the Oval Office as the clash unfolded.

“He would be turning in his grave if he saw that happen,” Jenrick says. “Zelensky has shown sincere gratitude for the support offered by his partners. We salute him and the courageous Ukrainians as they fight for freedom against Russian imperialism. Countries can and do disagree, but the West must show a united front to our enemies.”

Ukrainian MPs and frontline soldiers are now concerned about potential reprisals from the US, which has provided $US66 billion ($106 billion) in military aid over the past three years. Trump could reduce critical security assistance, which would threaten Ukraine’s ability to counter Russian advances and defend its infrastructure from daily missile and drone attacks. Additionally, a cut to Trump ally Elon Musk’s Starlink services, vital for military communications and drone operations, would give Vladimir Putin’s Russia a significant advantage.

NATO chief Mark Rutte said on Saturday he had told Zelensky in a phone call that he needed to find a way to restore his relationship with Trump.

Trump’s two other bilateral meetings this week – with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer – were chummy affairs, in part because they came prepared to flatter even as they voiced some disagreement with Trump over Ukraine.

A noted Trump whisperer, Rutte told the BBC: “I said, ‘I think you have to find a way, dear Volodymyr, to restore your relationship with Donald Trump and the American administration. That is important going forward’.”

Rutte called Trump a friend but did not directly address questions about whether the US president was right when he accused Zelensky of gambling with World War III, or when he said the Ukrainian needed to strike a deal or the US would be “out”.

“I am absolutely convinced that the US wants to bring Ukraine to this durable peace ... And obviously, what they need to get there is to make sure that we’ll all work together on this,” Rutte said.

Starmer promised Zelensky the UK’s “full backing” but is expected to warn European leaders that the road to peace in Ukraine must run through the White House, while Macron has called for a return to calm and respect.

Friday’s catastrophic meeting in the Oval Office. A bust of Winston Churchill is at far right, near J.D. Vance.Credit: Bloomberg

On Saturday, the day after the Oval Office bust-up, Zelensky took to social media to again thank Trump and the American people for their “vital” support. But he emphasised it was important to be “honest and direct”.

Across 14 posts, totalling more than 600 words, Zelensky wrote: “As [former US] president Reagan once said, ‘Peace is not just the absence of war’. We’re talking about just and lasting peace – freedom, justice and human rights for everyone. A ceasefire won’t work with Putin. He has broken ceasefires 25 times over the past 10 years. A real peace is the only solution.”

It is evident that, for Zelensky and Ukraine, the battle is far from over.

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