By Matt Wade
International inspections of Australia’s nuclear facilities and materials have increased by a third in the past year as the nation’s nuclear risk profile changes due to AUKUS.
Since Australia is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, it is required to submit to regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify compliance with nuclear safeguards.
The first AUKUS submarines are expected to be delivered to Australia in the late 2030s.Credit: ADF
Dr Geoffrey Shaw, director general of the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office (ASNO), which ensures compliance with nuclear treaties, said there has been “a 30 per cent increase in inspections in Australia in the last couple of years”.
Under AUKUS, the navy will acquire nuclear-propelled submarines, and Shaw said that has raised Australia’s “risk setting” with the IAEA.
“This country is now going to be acquiring naval nuclear propulsion – it will have high enriched uranium in a country where we don’t currently have high enriched uranium,” he said. “That changes the equation.”
Geoffrey Shaw, director general of the Australian Safeguards and Non-Proliferation Office, with Corey Hinderstein, acting principal deputy administrator of the US National Nuclear Security Administration. Credit: ANSO
Australia’s nuclear proliferation risk profile is low; it has one research nuclear reactor in Sydney, which uses low-enriched uranium, three uranium mines and some institutions and companies permitted to handle nuclear materials.
But Shaw said the IAEA wants more assurances that there are no undeclared nuclear activities. It is now conducting inspections across the country with “as short as two-hour notification”.
In the year to June 2024, the IAEA made 22 inspections at locations including the Australia Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), universities, defence facilities and private companies. That compares with 16 the previous year.
The first AUKUS submarines are due to be delivered to the Australian navy in the late 2030s.
When Australia, a non-nuclear-armed nation, acquires nuclear-propelled submarines, a “first-of-a-kind” regulatory approach will be needed to ensure the nation complies with its non-proliferation treaty obligations.
Corey Hinderstein, acting principal deputy administrator of America’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), said the nuclear safeguards developed in Australia for AUKUS will set a global benchmark for other nations that seek naval nuclear propulsion.
“We know that there are other countries that are interested in developing or partnering on naval nuclear propulsion programs, and those countries are by and large non-nuclear weapon states under the NPT, so they will have the safeguards obligation,” she said.
“And we know that if we can prove that it can be done robustly with recognition and respect for the safeguards obligation, with recognition and respect for the IAEA responsibility, but also with the full confidence of the partner state, then any other country that is seeking this won’t have any excuse to do it in any other way. And that’s what we’re really trying to do; let’s set the standard together that others will have to follow.”
French President Emmanuel Macron announced in March that his nation would assist Brazil to develop nuclear-propelled submarines, and other nations are understood to be interested in similar naval technologies.
Hinderstein, who is visiting Australia to meet officials, warned that this is an uncertain time for international nuclear security.
“We’re seeing our adversaries invest in nuclear capability in ways that we haven’t seen since the height of the Cold War, in the case of Russia, and never, there’s no precedent, in the case of China,” she said. “They are investing in their capability with regard to nuclear material production, with the numbers and diversity of their delivery platforms, and they are moving away from strategic stability conversations in the few venues where we had them.”
Australia was a founding member of the IAEA and has been a strong supporter of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that came into force in 1970 and has been signed by 191 nations.