‘Too big to fail’: US insists AUKUS deal is not sub par

Washington: The Biden administration has assured Australia that the US remains strongly committed to the AUKUS military pact after a contentious decision to halve American submarine production raised alarms about the future of the agreement.

Three months after legislation to help Australia acquire nuclear-propelled submarines finally passed in Washington, the US Navy this week proposed removing an attack submarine from its 2025 spending plan, in a tacit recognition that American shipbuilding yards are struggling with the pace of producing and maintaining the national fleet.

Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden are grappling with China.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The proposed budget cut prompted fears about the viability of AUKUS, which was designed by the US, Australia and the UK to safeguard the Indo-Pacific from the growing threat of China, but requires the US maintain a production rate of 2.33 submarines a year to sell any subs to Australia.

Former Liberal prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said Australia had been “mugged by reality” over the deal; ALP activist group Labor Against War called on the Albanese government to freeze earmarked AUKUS payments underwriting US shipyards; and Democrat congressman Joe Courtney warned the proposed cut could have a “profound impact on both countries’ navies” if approved.

In response, the Biden administration has sought to assuage Australia’s concerns about the deal and insists it remains a reliable partner to deliver on the pact.

Australia will buy up to five Virginia class attack submarines from the US under the AUKUS agreement.Credit: AP

“I can tell you that AUKUS is one of the transformative agreements,” Richard Verma, the administration’s deputy secretary of state for management and resources, told this masthead. “We are very proud to be strongly supporting it and moving forward with it.”

Asked to explain the proposed cut, considering America’s concerns over China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, he said the budget simply “reflects kind of the pace and scope and scale that all sides have agreed to” – a reference to the long-term nature of the multibillion-dollar plan – and that he had seen “only an incredible enthusiasm and commitment from our State Department, DoD [Department of Defence] and the larger technology community”.

It’s a year since President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak gathered in San Diego to announce the optimal pathway for AUKUS.

Under the deal, the US has agreed to sell at least three Virginia-class boats to Australia to fill a “capability gap” before specially designed nuclear-powered submarines are operational from the 2040s.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at an AUKUS announcement in March 2023.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Part of the agreement also involves Australia spending $3 billion to boost US shipyards so Virginia-class submarines can arrive in the early 2030s – an investment that Courtney described as “pretty amazing”.

“That has never happened before, where another country has expressed their willingness to make that move because they correctly see that, you know, for this to succeed, we have to expand capacity,” said the congressman, a staunch ally of Australia from Connecticut, where the Virginia-class subs will be built.

Others, however, are far less optimistic.

“We are providing billions of dollars to the US, have given up an independent foreign policy and made Australia a parking lot for US weapons,” Greens Senator David Shoebridge wrote on X. “In exchange, we get nothing. Nothing but a big target and empty pockets.”

Then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and then treasurer Scott Morrison during a press conference in Brisbane in 2016.Credit: Andrew Meares

Turnbull, an architect of an earlier French submarine plan dumped by his successor Scott Morrison in favour of the AUKUS deal, also raised concerns.

He noted that unless the US doubles its rate of production of Virginia class submarines, it won’t have capacity to supply Australia with the subs promised, let alone maintain the numbers needed for its own navy.

“What does that mean for Australia? It means because the Morrison government, adopted by Albanese, has basically abandoned our sovereignty in terms of submarines, we are completely dependent on what happens in the United States as to whether we get them now,” he told ABC radio.

“This is really a case of us being mugged by reality,” he added.

Australia’s concerns over the AUKUS deal reverberated on Thursday (Friday AEDT) at a seminar with Courtney and Australia’s deputy chief of mission, ambassador Paul Myler, to mark the first anniversary of the San Diego announcement.

Asked by an audience member about Turnbull’s comments, Myler said: “I would never not take seriously views expressed by former prime ministers of Australia, but I think we are very confident of the future of AUKUS”.

“This was a ‘no fail’ exercise for these political leaders,” Myler added.

“If you stand up and say ‘we are going to do this’ and then you fail to do it, you massively undermine your deterrence credibility going forward.

“This is one of those exercises that is too big to fail from a deterrence perspective, so we’ve all got to put our shoulder to the wheel to make sure it succeeds.”

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