Pollster’s leaked plea to Dutton as campaign faltered: ‘Lighten up, offer tax cuts’

Leaked documents show the Liberals’ pollster raised the alarm about the opposition’s thin tax policy and told Peter Dutton he had to lighten up as the opposition leader’s popularity cratered and his party careened towards a historic loss on Saturday.

Focus group studies conducted by pollster Michael Turner and seen by this masthead had been picking up a wave of negative opinions about Dutton, including an observation from one voter that he “lacks empathy on screen when he talks” and another stating, “I just don’t like the guy, he gives me negative vibes.”

Leaked party research urging Dutton’s staff to get the leader to show his lighter side.

As recriminations over the loss escalate and Liberals jockey to be the party’s next leader, the leaked documents show voter feedback prompted Turner, of polling firm Freshwater Research, to tell Dutton to ditch his hardened and sometimes wooden exterior.

In a document titled “Project Majura” presented to Dutton and the tightest group of campaign operatives on April 30, just days out from the election, Turner wrote: “Enjoy the campaign, with a relaxed, sincere tone, using relatable language.

“Convey a more relaxed and enthusiastic presence that signals Dutton is enjoying the campaign and engaging with voters.

“Ensure public engagements are delivered in a way that shows Dutton, and the Liberals, listen to voters, and understand what they are going through right now.”

Turner and Freshwater are now under fire for providing the Liberals polling that substantially overestimated the Coalition’s primary vote in both public and internal research, giving Dutton a false sense of confidence about his election chances and policy.

Several public polls, including this masthead’s Resolve Political Monitor, were closer to the mark after voters turned away from the Coalition over its stances on nuclear, its abortive plan to stop public servants working from home, and economic messages that failed to cut through.

In the later days of the campaign, Dutton attacked the “hate media” and his frontbencher Jacinta Price borrowed from Donald Trump to vow the Coalition would “make Australia great again”.

During the campaign, Turner was warning the Coalition that his research was showing Dutton’s personal popularity had crashed from negative 22, already a poor rating, on April 9, to negative 40 by election day.

Yet Dutton – who can be charming in private – continued to target Labor seats, including safe ones, in the final moments of the campaign when the opposition’s electorates, including his own, required attention.

Campaign sources said only one of the seats polled regularly was held by the Coalition, in part because Dutton’s team wanted to target government seats to maintain the impression he had a pathway to government.

“It was all about getting him to 65 seats to stay on as leader to target the next election,” the source said.

Former Coalition pollster Mark Textor, who helped John Howard win multiple elections, said on social media he had once helped Liberals offer a message of hope, reward and opportunity.

“Too often now,” Textor said. “The offer feels more like: Division. Retribution. Resentment.”

A Coalition campaigner said Dutton and his chief of staff, Alex Dalgleish’s, centralisation of power backfired. “It was their first time in the big job,” the source said. “They had all these ideas on ads and strategy, and had people whispering in their ear saying [federal secretary Andrew Hirst] was no good. They wanted to run Dutton’s office and run the campaign too.”

Turner said in a one-line response to questions from this masthead: “Pollsters are paid to provide candid insights and I won’t speak publicly about the research I provide.” Dutton’s office was contacted for comment.

Dutton’s chief of staff, Alex Dalgleish, and media boss, Nicole Chant, on the campaign trail on April 26.Credit: James Brickwood

With shadow treasurer Angus Taylor taking an early lead to replace Dutton ahead of immigration spokesman Dan Tehan and deputy leader Sussan Ley, outgoing senator Hollie Hughes intervened to attack her NSW Liberal factional opponent on Monday.

“I have concerns about [Taylor’s] capabilities, but that is shared by a huge number of my colleagues,” said the outgoing senator, who blames Taylor for bumping her down the party’s Senate ticket.

“We had zero economic policy to sell. I don’t know what [Taylor] has been doing for three years,” Hughes said on ABC Radio National. “There was no tax policy, there was no economic narrative.”

“Policies that had been developed, had been costed, just seemed to disappear into a vortex,” she said.

Illustration by Matt Golding

The potential leadership candidates have not commented. But several sources involved in leadership talks said moderate faction MPs wanted to back either Ley or Tehan to thwart Taylor, who is backed by the right faction.

The opposition had an early lead over Labor in polls about economic management after interest rates spiked under Labor, but lost it during the campaign.

After the party decided to oppose Labor’s “top-up” tax cuts announced days before the election, leaked text messages showed Turner repeatedly calling for the opposition to offer more than its proposed fuel excise cut.

“Just your friendly daily reminder that we need a tax cutting policy (LMITO or Family Tax Credit),” Turner said in one text obtained by this masthead, sent in the first days of the campaign.

A senior Liberal staffer replied: “Is this because the fuel excise cut isn’t enough from a cost of living point of view?”

“It’s a good start. Works well in the regions and outer suburbs. Tonight’s focus groups both said they wanted tax cuts and felt Labor’s didn’t go far enough. Polling shouldn’t drive policy, but there’s a big gaping opportunity there for us to occupy. Maybe you guys can have a think what works.”

Dutton’s strategist Jamie Briggs and other figures then pushed for a bold plan to move tax brackets with inflation, an idea supported by many economists. This proposal was first reported by The Australian Financial Review.

Turner, Angus Taylor and Dutton initially supported the plan, but the huge cost to the budget meant the party eventually opted for the $1200 tax offset similar to what Turner’s text messages suggested.

The offset, which was cobbled together in the hours before it was announced at the Liberal campaign launch on April 12, was cheaper than indexing tax brackets and allowed Dutton to offer more spending on defence.

Dutton later flagged the bracket creep idea as an “aspiration” in an interview with The Australian, which was published on Easter Thursday and attracted little attention.

Turner, who conducted polling for the 2019 and 2022 campaigns, wrote in The Australian Financial Review on Monday that his methodology overestimated the number of previous Labor supporters who voted No in the Indigenous Voice referendum who would defect from Labor to vote for Dutton.

The researcher also claimed voters swung against Dutton in the final days of the campaign after his last poll was published. However, such explanations are unlikely to spare Turner being dumped by the party when his contract expires in the middle of the year.

Read more on Labor’s landslide election win

• Inside story: How the Coalition campaign was a catastrophe months in the making.
• Some seats are still too close to call. Here are all the races that remain in doubt – plus every seat that’s changed hands.
• Interactive: See how your polling booth voted in this election.
• Live results: Track every seat in the country.
• Live blog: Albanese mulls new cabinet; races tighten across the country.

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