NSWRL Junior Reps: Run to the finals for every contender in Matts, Fiaola, Ball and Gale Cup

With just three rounds remaining the race for finals spots is well and truly on. We crunch the numbers for all four grades to see who will be there and who will be watching from the sidelines.

Tom Summer and the Eels are on top in SG Ball. Picture Warren Gannon Photography

The run to the NSWRL Junior Reps finals is well and truly on with just three rounds remaining across the board.

We crunch the numbers ahead of every remaining round to determine who will be there in the post-season and who will be watching from the sidelines.

HAROLD MATTHEWS CUP

1. ILLAWARRA (5-0, 12pts, +50)

Run home: North Sydney (H), Syd Roosters (A), Balmain (A)

Still the only undefeated side in the competition, the Steelers just know how to get it done. They are certainties to finish among the top two and will be hard to beat in the finals.

2. CENTRAL COAST (4-1, 10pts, +64)

Run home: Melbourne (H), Parramatta (A), Penrith (A)

If Illawarra slips up, they’re a chance to knock them off their perch and finish the regular season in top spot. They are almost as good as a lock to finish in the top two with the run home they have.

3. NEW ZEALAND (4-1, 10pts, +50)

Run home: Balmain (A), South Sydney (H), Syd Roosters (H)

They look like they’ve gone to another level this season. A win over Balmain and success in one of their two final home games locks in a top four spot for the Warriors which they should do with ease.

4. SYD ROOSTERS (3-2, 8pts, +64)

Run home: Canberra (A), Illawarra (H), New Zealand (A)

Rocketed up into fourth spot when knocking off Cronulla. They have a tricky run home with the unbeaten Illawarra and defending premiers New Zealand in the final two rounds. Might slip into fifth or sixth.

5. SOUTH SYDNEY (3-2, 8pts, +30)

Run home: Penrith (H), New Zealand (A), Canterbury (A)

Dropped their second game on the run after a narrow defeat to Balmain. Will need to win at least two of their remaining games to work back into the top four. Will be touch and go if they can or not.

6. MANLY (3-2, 8pts, +22)

Run home: Cronulla (A), St George (A), Parramatta (H)

Dropped from second to sixth as a result of their loss in round six, an indication of the logjam that exists in this competition. Need to beat Cronulla if they are any chance of making the top four. I have them in the 5-8 range.

7. CRONULLA (3-2, 8pts, +20)

Run home: Manly (H), Canterbury (H), St George (A)

Did enough at the front end of the season that should see them advance, but if they’re going well enough to break into the top foiur is another question.

8. NEWCASTLE (4-2, 8pts, +18)

Run home: Canterbury (H), Balmain (H), BYE

With four wins to their name already and a good run home, the Knights should be making the finals from here and an unbeaten run to the post-season can put them in the frame for the top four. I think they make it.

9. NORTH SYDNEY (3-2, 8pts, +12)

Run home: Illawarra (A), Canberra (A), Wests (H)

The Bears keep finding a way and their win over Souths helped to keep them well in the race. If they can hand the Steelers their first loss of the season they will find themselves in the box seat to qualify. I think they just fall short however.

10. PARRAMATTA (2-3, 6pts, +4)

Run home: Wests (A), Central Coast (H), Manly (A)

They will find the going tough after dropping their clash to Canberra in round six. Will need to find a way to knock off some pretty good teams over the final two rounds. Not for mine.

11. CANBERRA (2-3, 6pts, -16)

Run home: Syd Roosters (H), North Sydney (H), Melbourne (A)

Need to win their remaining games, but have shown their best can match it with most teams. May have left their run a bit too late but they’re playing some good footy.

12. BALMAIN (2-3, 6pts, -70)

Run home: New Zealand (H), Newcastle (A), Illawarra (H)

Face one of the toughest runs to the finals of the remaining contenders and would likely have to win all three with their points differential. Can’t see it happening.

JThe Central Coast Roosters are among the Lisa Fiaola favourites. Picture: Sue Graham

LISA FIAOLA CUP

1. CANTERBURY (5-0, 12pts, +250)

Run home: Newcastle (A), St George (H), Parramatta (A)

The benchmark of the competition who is yet to lose in a year and a half. They should continue their roll on and finish the season as undefeated minor premiers.

2. CENTRAL COAST (5-0, 12pts, +212)

Run home: Cronulla (A), Manly (A), Illawarra (H)

They have a golden opportunity to leapfrog Canterbury into top spot over the course of the next three weeks. Their draw is easier but they do have a fair points differential margin to make up.

3. PARRAMATTA (5-0, 12pts, +134)

Run home: Wests Tigers (A), Illawarra (H), Canterbury (H)

Keep rising to the challenge and they are looking very good at the moment. Barring a major slip up, third place looks theirs.

4. NEWCASTLE (5-1, 10pts, +84)

Run home: Canterbury (H), Cronulla (H), BYE

A big test awaits them against Canterbury before they take on the Sharks to lock in their top-four spot ahead of a bye in the final round. Fourth is theirs to lose.

5. WESTS TIGERS (3-2, 8pts, +62)

Run home: Parramatta (H), North Sydney (H), Cronulla (A)

Going to need to win their remaining three games to have a shot at the top four, starting this weekend against an undefeated Eels side. I have them in fifth.

6. CRONULLA (3-2, 8 pts, +34)

Run home: Central Coast (H), Newcastle (A), Wests Tigers (H)

They’re no room for complacency with the Sharks as they face three teams above them to finish the season. I think they sneak into the finals.

7. ILLAWARRA (2-3, 6pts, +20)

Run home: Manly (H), Parramatta (A), Central Coast (A)

They need to win and win well against Manly this weekend ahead of an incredibly difficult final two weeks. With Canberra having the softer run, I think the Steelers just miss out on the eight.

8. PENRITH (3-3, 6 pts, -30)

Run home: South Sydney (A), BYE, St George (A)

With even luck they should be taking home points from each of the next three weeks and can work their way into sixth. They’ll be featuring in the finals.

9. CANBERRA (1-4, 4 pts, -18)

Run home: North Sydney (H), South Sydney (A), Manly (A)

If they can beat the Bears this weekend they are a serious player to move past Illawarra. They will be favourites in their final two games and will need results to go their way, but I think they can do it.

10. NORTH SYDNEY (1-4, 4 pts, -134)

Run home: Canberra (A), Wests Tigers (A), South Sydney (H)

Need to beat Canberra this weekend to remain alive. Even if they do I can’t see a path for them into eighth.

The Raiders remain in the SG Ball hunt. Picture: Martin Ollman

SG BALL CUP

1. PARRAMATTA (5-1-0, 11pts, +60)

Run home: Wests (A), North Sydney (H), Manly (A)

If they can get past a resurgent Magpies side this week, the minor premiership is theirs. They should do it to cap off what has been a fantastic regular season for the club.

2. SOUTH SYDNEY (5-1, 10pts, +146)

Run home: Penrith (A), New Zealand (H), Canterbury (A)

Their for and against will come in very handy over the next few weeks. They will start favourites in their remaining three games and should have a top-two spot locked in.

3. CANBERRA (5-1, 10pts, +46)

Run home: Melbourne (A), St George (A), Wests (H)

Bit of a tricky finish to the season with a trip to Melbourne against a strong Storm side and finishing the year with Wests who might need to win that game to make the finals. Still look good for the top four.

4. BALMAIN (5-1, 10pts, +2)

Run home: Syd Roosters (H), Cronulla (A), Illawarra (H)

A good start has locked in their place in the finals, but they will need to continue that form on if they want to hold onto their spot in the four. I think they just fall into the 5-8 range.

5. MELBOURNE (4-2, 8pts, +78)

Run home: Canberra (H), Newcastle (H), Cronulla (A)

Have a tough few weeks coming up but their next two games at home helps. They look the goods to earn their spot in the finals.

6. ILLAWARRA (4-2, 8pts, +22)

Run home: North Sydney (H), Penrith (H), Balmain (A)

Expected to win their next two and their top-four hopes could come down to a shootout between themselves and Balmain. Look a good thing to feaure in the finals.

7. SYD ROOSTERS (3-1-2, 7pts, +49)

Run home: Balmain (H), Canterbury (H), New Zealand (A)

They will need one of the teams above them to slip up, but they are a big chance of making the top four with the roster they have at their disposal. Talent across the park and nobody will want to face them in the finals.

8. CANTERBURY (3-1-2, 7pts, +26)

Run home: Newcastle (A), Syd Roosters (A), South Sydney (H)

With a host of their players now featuring in Jersey Flegg and a tough run home, it’s hard to see the Bulldogs holding their spot with some good teams hot on their tails.

9. WESTERN SUBURBS (3-3, 6 pts, +34)

Run home: Parramatta (H), Manly (A), Canberra (A)

They will need to claim some big scalps if they are to work their way into the eight and keep themselves ahead of the chasers below them. I think they just fall short.

10. CRONULLA (3-3, 6pts, +44)

Run home: Manly (H), Balmain (H), Melbourne (H)

The remaining three games are on home soil, and they need to win two at the very least to have a shot. I think Newcastle will just pip them for eighth.

11. NEWCASTLE (3-3, 6 pts, +16)

Run home: Canterbury (H), Melbourne (A), St George (A)

Points differential is of slight concern, but they have the team and the draw to be able to turn things around over the next few weeks and sneak into that eighth spot.

The Bulldogs are on fire in Tarsha Gale Cup. Picture: Julian Andrews

TARSHA GALE CUP

1. CANTERBURY (5-0, 12pts, +116)

Run home: Newcastle (A), St George (H), Parramatta (A)

You’d be a brave person to suggest they will be beaten on their run to the finals. They’ve looked the goods all season and should be able to lock in the minor premiership.

2. ILLAWARRA (4-1, 10pts, +66)

Run home: Manly (H), Parramatta (A), Syd Roosters (A)

Went from fifth to second with their win over Cronulla and a few other results going their way. Their title defence is on the right track and they will finish top four.

3. WESTS TIGERS (4-1, 10pts, +40)

Run home: Parramatta (H), North Sydney (H), Cronulla (A)

They’ve shown some good signs throughout this season and two wins from their remaining games should be enough to see them qualify in the top four. They’ll do just that.

4. PARRAMATTA (3-2, 8pts, +96)

Run home: Wests Tigers (A), Illawarra (H), Canterbury (H)

They have the hardest run to the finals as they face the current top three over the remaining three weeks. It means they will have to earn their double chance, which I’m not sure they can.

5. CRONULLA (3-2, 8pts, +78)

Run home: Syd Roosters (H), Newcastle (A), Wests Tigers (H)

In a logjam of teams and with a challenging run for the remaining three games they will just fall shy of a top-four spot.

6. SYD ROOSTERS (3-2, 8pts, +74)

Run home: Cronulla (A), Manly (A), Illawarra (H)

A shock loss to Canberra means they will have to knock off both Cronulla and Illawarra if they are to make the top four and earn a double chance. I think they can do it with other results falling their way.

7. NEWCASTLE (4-2, 8pts, +56)

Run home: Canterbury (H), Cronulla (H), BYE

Having four wins on the board already locks them into the top eight, but with a challenging draw to finish off I think they will find themselves in an elimination final in week one.

8. PENRITH (4-2, 8pts, +18)

Run home: South Sydney (A), BYE, St George (A)

Got the job done against Parramatta and that opens the door right up for a top-four finish. They will need to boost their differential, but I have them finishing on 14 points and that should be enough.

Originally published as NSWRL Junior Reps: Run to the finals for every contender in Matts, Fiaola, Ball and Gale Cup