Mick McGuane: The big list management calls that should be made at every club this trade period
The vultures are circling the Dees for their stars, and ahead of a huge October trade period, MICK MCGUANE writes it’s time for Melbourne to make a drastic move.
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The AFL Trade Period is just around the corner as clubs prepare to make some moves.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane has put his list manager’s hat for each club and declares which changes he would make — including some surprises and some fresh mail.
ADELAIDE
The Crows look to be one of the frontrunners in the chase for Gold Coast’s Jack Lukosius, a South Australian who can feature in a key post at either end of the ground.
Lukosius still has two years to run on a sizeable contract at the Suns, but the Crows could smooth that out over a four or five-year deal.
Expect Melbourne premiership player Alex Neal-Bullen to be in Crows colours next season, where he will be played as a high running forward who can get up to saturate stoppage and get back to support the key forwards.
One of those key forwards — veteran Taylor Walker — is staying put.
He might not play every game next season, but he can continue to help guide and educate the likes of Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty.
I like midfielder Sam Berry and defender Hugh Bond, who should both get new deals to stay.
Lachlan Gollant could be on the way out, though, and would offer something at another club as a third-tall forward who has some upside.
Key forwards don’t fall out of trees, but Elliott Himmelberg is an unrestricted free agent who GWS had interest in last year and will now have a choice to make.
BRISBANE LIONS
The Lions are pretty well stocked and have some important players who are set to return from injury next season.
But could Carlton’s Jack Martin be of interest?
If I were the Lions, I would be having a chat with him.
There have been some injury issues for Martin this year, but Brisbane has a history of getting the bodies of injury-prone player’s right.
Just look at Joe Daniher and Lincoln McCarthy.
Martin started his career in Queensland at the Suns and is a link player who still has some good years ahead of him.
He would complement what is already a diverse and damaging forward group at the Lions nicely.
Dayne Zorko is 35 will go around again given the impressive season he has produced this year.
Midfielder Deven Robertson still has one year to run on a contract, but it might be best for him to seek opportunity elsewhere after just two AFL games this season.
A West Australian boy, he would be of interest to the Eagles.
CARLTON
The Blues are in desperate need of another key defender to partner Jacob Weitering.
They have seemingly lost faith in Lewis Young as a key defender, while Brodie Kemp looks comfortable as a forward.
If I were them, I’d be having a crack at securing Greater Western Sydney’s Leek Aleer.
The 23-year-old is contracted for one more season, but has only played 12 games for the Giants this year and spots are hard to come by in a team that has Sam Taylor and Connor Idun down back.
The Blues also need an injection of speed in the midfield, but might look to the national draft to address that.
A quality running halfback would also be handy, but they might not have the salary cap space to fit in Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston if he returns to Victoria.
Out-of-contract forward Jack Martin could be of interest to another club like Brisbane, while it will be interesting to see what happens with Matt Owies.
The small forward has been Carlton’s third-highest goalkicker this season with 32 majors, but the question is whether he can feature in the same forward line as Lachie Fogarty given his a lack of speed, so one of them might be up for grabs.
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies are a bit hamstrung.
They don’t have a first-round pick to play with and don’t have a lot of salary cap space.
But if they could somehow swing it, Jack Lukosius would look good in black and white.
Collingwood needs to add to its key forward stocks.
Mason Cox is 33, Brody Mihocek is 31 and Ash Johnson and Nathan Kreuger aren’t the answer.
Collingwood must get in the conversation for Lukosius, who has two years to run on a contract at the Gold Coast Suns but has been playing VFL in recent weeks.
Alternatively, the Magpies could look to a money-ball option like out-of-contract Fremantle forward Sam Sturt.
A Victorian who has lacked opportunity with the Dockers, he could fit in nicely as a third-tall option alongside Mihocek and Dan McStay.
The Magpies could also look to bolster their midfield stocks and have reportedly shown interest in Adelaide’s Sam Berry, but I suspect he stays at the Crows.
ESSENDON
The Bombers still have a few missing pieces on their list.
They could do with another running halfback, another transition midfielder, another small forward and perhaps another key forward.
On the halfback front, Essendon must throw its hat in the ring for Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston or have a crack at Greater Western Sydney’s Harry Perryman.
The Bombers may already have a quality transition midfielder in their wings in Archie Roberts, who is going to be a player in time.
But they could further bolster their midfield stocks in the national draft, where they should also secure the best young small forward in the country in NGA prospect Isaac Kako.
Jobe Shanahan – a 194cm key forward who has kicked 11 goals for Essendon’s VFL side in the past three weeks – should also be strongly considered. He looks a ready-made player who understands forward craft.
Jake Stringer has done enough in my eyes to earn a one-year contract extension — having booted 40 goals from 22 games this season — but the teams standards cannot be compromised.
However, I’d consider putting Ben Hobbs and Elijah Tsatas on the trade table.
Hobbs is tough but isn’t the creative or first-option-give player the Bombers’ need and Tsatas has great work ethic but is not effective enough with his ball use by foot.
FREMANTLE
The Dockers will be doing well if they are able to bring in Richmond pair Shai Bolton and Liam Baker.
Baker is flexible who can play in all three areas of the ground and Bolton can do special things both in the forward line and at centre bounce.
The Dockers currently have four top-30 draft picks, which should go a long way to getting those deals done.
If Richmond also wanted a player back in return, Fremantle could offer up out-of-contract forward Sam Sturt.
He’s lacked regular senior opportunities with the Dockers, but is a 190cm Victorian product who has good ability and was a first-round draft pick in 2018.
The Tigers are struggling to score and veteran key forward Tom Lynch has had a raft of injury issues over the past two years, so a player like Sturt could be a handy addition.
GEELONG
The ruck situation continues to be a problem for the Cats.
Toby Conway is a promising young player but needs some support and Rhys Stanley is on his last legs.
With that in mind, Geelong has to make another play for Fremantle’s Sean Darcy.
The Dockers could be more willing to play ball this year if they need to make some moves to squeeze in Richmond pair Shai Bolton and Liam Baker.
Western Bulldogs midfielder Bailey Smith appears a lock to head down the highway, where he could elevate his game out of the Melbourne football spotlight.
Another big-bodied inside midfielder should also be on the shopping list, though.
Could that be Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver?
I believe Oliver wants out of the Demons and he might be the perfect fit for the Cats if they are prepared to take on some level of risk.
Patrick Dangerfield doesn’t have long left, but Oliver has just turned 27 and could lead Geelong’s midfield for many years to come if he can get himself right.
Melbourne might even be willing to pay part of his contract in a deal to let Oliver go.
If Geelong does add a midfielder or two, the out-of-contract Brandan Parfitt would have suitors elsewhere given his talent and experience.
GOLD COAST
Don’t expect a busy trade period for the Suns, who are building their list through the draft.
However, it appears done and dusted that they will secure Richmond’s Daniel Rioli.
The three-time premiership player is still only 27 but can add some run, bounce and experience across halfback, alongside Lachie Weller and some other emerging defenders.
The Suns have said Jack Lukosius is a required and contracted player, but he has been overlooked for senior selection the past two weeks and is too good to be playing VFL.
The forward is on big money the next two years as part of a back-ended contract, but multiple clubs are likely to come for him with smoothed-out four or five-year offers.
GWS
The Giants are fairly set with their list, but might lose a couple of unrestricted free agents in Harry Perryman and Isaac Cumming.
The pair are very close mates and would probably like to go as a package deal to another club.
Cumming’s an Adelaide boy so it makes sense he might want to link up with the Power or Crows, while Perryman is a heart-and-soul player who has strong interest from Port Adelaide and Hawthorn.
Rookie James Peatling is not a free agent but is also out of contract and ranks anywhere from 18 to 27 on the Giants’ list.
He will attract some rival interest and may be keen to cement a more regular senior spot elsewhere.
Defender Leek Aleer has one more year to run on his contract, but it wouldn’t surprise if he also sought greater opportunities at another club.
The Giants last year had a crack at Adelaide key forward Elliott Himmelberg, the younger brother of key defender Harry.
He could again be considered as an option to support Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Jake Riccardi in attack.
HAWTHORN
I’m hearing that free agent Josh Battle will stay at St Kilda.
However, that could just be a play to force the Hawks to up the ante on an offer.
Hawthorn does need to strengthen its defence and if it can secure Battle and fellow key defender Tom Barrass from West Coast, it will be much better placed.
A backline which boasts James Sicily, Battle and Barrass would be pretty stacked.
That strength would squeeze out Sam Frost and allow the rebounders like Karl Amon and Jarman Impey to play to their strengths, along with another potential recruit in Greater Western Sydney’s Harry Perryman.
If Hawthorn does raise the bar on Battle, St Kilda would be less unhappy to lose him knowing that they would get a juicy first-round compensation pick which would give them a stronger hand in the race to bring Dan Houston back to Victoria.
A No. 6 draft pick in 2020, Denver Grainger-Barras is one out-of-contract Hawk who could be put on the trade table, having not lived up to expectations so far.
Grainger-Barras, 22, has not featured at AFL level this season.
MELBOURNE
I know he’s contracted for one more year and has strong family ties at the Western Bulldogs, but Melbourne should be throwing the kitchen sink at Sam Darcy.
He might not be interested in a move, but it’s worth having a crack at one of the competition’s most promising young key forwards whose stocks are rapidly rising.
If he’s still out of contract in 12 months’ time, there will be mammoth offers coming Darcy’s way from across the competition, so why not get in early?
It’s also time for the Demons decision makers to stop stuffing around and become realists in relation to making some tough calls.
If I were the them, I’d be ripping the Band-Aid off and moving on Clayton Oliver, especially if he wants out.
I’ve long admired Oliver, but he’s nowhere near the player he was right now given the preparation he had this year and the issues that he’s got.
Sometimes you need to make a hard call to get your club back on track and if a club like Geelong is interested in Oliver then Melbourne should try and make it work.
As good a goalkicker as Bayley Fritsch is, he too could be sacrificed if he doesn’t want to put in the hard yards and pull in the same direction as his teammates.
Is Fritsch professional enough on and off the field?
Crazy, you might say.
But I see it as high performance standards and culture setting, something the Demons hierarchy have ignored recently.
High forward Alex Neal-Bullen will make a move to Adelaide, but the good news for Melbourne is that senior leaders Max Gawn and Jack Viney are staying to help steer the ship after a difficult 18 months.
NORTH MELBOURNE
A key priority for the Kangaroos is finding a second tall forward to support Nick Larkey.
Charlie Comben was always earmarked to be that, but he has now found a home in defence.
The problem is, there’s not many good key forwards available in the marketplace.
Can’t see North Melbourne going after Adelaide’s Elliott Himmelberg, but they should strongly consider having a chat with Gold Coast key forward Jack Lukosius.
They might not be a destination club right now, but the Kangaroos could sell to Lukosius the fact they have Alastair Clarkson as coach and some emerging talent through the middle of the ground.
They’re also a club that would have the money to pay Lukosius well.
The Kangaroos would also love to add an experienced leader, but it won’t be Melbourne’s Jack Viney now he has signed a new deal.
I can’t see Port Adelaide’s Ollie Wines making a move to Arden Street, either, and Sydney’s Luke Parker has had a real impact for the ladder-leader over the past two weeks.
Is Western Bulldogs onballer Jack Macrae the best shot as an experienced ball-winner who can provide some support and advice to the young group in the middle of the ground?
There is talk about midfielder Will Phillips being put on the trade table, but I wonder if another club would be interested if he can’t get a regular senior game in the competition’s second-worst side.
PORT ADELAIDE
Running defender Dan Houston would like to head home to Victoria, but he could still stay at Port Adelaide if a deal can’t be reached with a rival club.
Houston still has three years to run on his current contract with the Power, giving the club the upper hand in any trade discussions.
Port Adelaide is having a go at luring across Collingwood small forward Joe Richards, but on a potential three-year deal rather than the four years which has been reported.
Ken Hinkley plays a front-half game and Richards would suit nicely.
He has only played eight AFL games in two seasons at the Magpies but can find space in a phone box, makes good decisions with ball in hand and can impact the scoreboard from limited touches.
Logan Evans is still out of contract and will get an extension, with Port Adelaide finding a player there through the mid-season draft.
RICHMOND
It irks me when players ask for the security of a long contract, only to turn around a year or two later and request a trade due to changing circumstances.
But given the situation the Tigers are in, it might be best just to let contracted pair Shai Bolton and Daniel Rioli go without putting up a fight.
Play hardball to get the draft picks you want in return, but there’s no point holding on to players who don’t want to be at your club.
Free agents Liam Baker and Jack Graham also have one foot out the door as the winds of change sweep through Punt Rd.
If the Tigers can get six or eight top-25 draft picks through the door in the next two years it could supercharge their rebuild.
In what is a deep draft this year, you might be able to get a gun midfielder at the top of the order and a young key position player like Murray Bushrangers twins Matt and Jack Whitlock later in the first round.
Fremantle’s Sam Sturt could also be a trade option as a capable third-tall forward type for the Tigers.
Of the out-of-contract list, I like the look of Seth Campbell and Steely Green who should get new deals, while mid-season draftee Campbell Gray had shown positive signs at VFL level before a hamstring injury ended his campaign early.
ST KILDA
Does Josh Battle stay or go?
That’s the question for the Saints.
If the key defender decides to exercise his free agency rights, the dominoes could fall and St Kilda will make a big play for Port Adelaide’s Dan Houston.
He is 28 and has assets which would suit the way the Saints like to play and move the ball.
If Battle’s move triggers a first-round compensation pick, the Saints would have two top-10 selections up their sleeve to help get the Houston deal done while still snagging a gun midfielder in the draft.
In addition, St Kilda should go after Greater Western Sydney midfielder James Peatling, who could come relatively cheaply as a 24-year-old who can take the reins from a player like Seb Ross.
Liam Stocker will get another deal to stay at Moorabbin after playing a role this year, but out-of-contract forward Tim Membrey would likely have some rival interest if he’s not in Ross Lyon’s future plans.
SYDNEY
The minor premiers don’t need much and have most of their list locked away beyond this year.
The only position they might like to fill is a key defensive post.
The Swans were thinking about West Coast’s Tom Barrass, but he looks destined for Hawthorn.
So where else can they look to address that need?
Maybe they only have to go across town and have a chat to Greater Western Sydney’s Leek Aleer, a promising young player with plenty of upside who is getting limited opportunities at the Giants.
It’s a left-field option, but it might just fit the bill.
WEST COAST
All indications are that key defender Tom Barrass is headed for the door, but the Eagles could potentially have some good players come back the other way.
Former Richmond recruiting manager Matt Clarke is now list boss at West Coast and should push hard to secure Tigers star Shai Bolton as he seeks to return home to Western Australia.
Bolton is still only 25 and could team up with Liam Ryan in the forward line to provide a real spark for the Eagles.
West Coast had its eyes on Western Bulldogs ruckman Tim English, but his decision to stay at Whitten Oval might mean they have to get creative in that area.
Why not try and bring Brisbane’s Darcy Fort west?
He’s got one year remaining on a deal at the Lions, but has only played two games this season as he sits behind Oscar McInerney in the pecking order.
Williams is a competitor but is undersized so is not the player you want in the No. 1 ruck role when you are trying to develop your midfield.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
If the Bulldogs have a weakness on their list, it’s about getting another key defender and another inside midfielder who can win the footy inside but carry it to the outside to break the game open.
Rory Lobb’s shift to the backline mid-season has worked wonders and he will now remain at Whitten Oval after there was trade speculation mid-season when he was out of the senior side.
Midfielder Bailey Smith is headed for Geelong, while I’d like to see Jack Macrae honour his contract. But if his opportunities are limited he might find a new home like a club like North Melbourne.
He’s been a revered and well-respected player of the competition and still has a contract for three more years, but isn’t getting regular midfield minutes at the Bulldogs anymore and doesn’t have a secondary role.
While there has also been trade talk about defender Caleb Daniel, I’m not sure there will be many suitors.
I’ve loved Daniel for his footy IQ and ball use over the years, but I’m not sure that he has still got the speed in his legs which you need in the game as a halfback these days.
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