NBL grand final 2023: Analysing the keys to success in the Kings-Breakers championship series
Former South East Melbourne coach Simon Mitchell has done a deep dive into the Kings-Breakers NBL grand final series. What he’s discovered is eye-opening.
Basketball
Don't miss out on the headlines from Basketball. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Sydney has been there, done that. The Breakers became only the second team in NBL history to go from bottom place to the grand final.
But are the Kings, who have fallen back to the pack in a number of key areas as the season reaches its climax, vulnerable?
Who better to break down the match up than a man who has coached against — and beaten — both teams this season.
Former South East Melbourne Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell, Brisbane Bullets guard Jason Cadee and NBL legend Derek Rucker identify the biggest keys to the series — and what needs to happen for the Kiwis to pull off a championship miracle.
1. PUT THE BRAKES ON
New Zealand has been successful in turning its three regular season meetings with the Kings into slow, defensive slogs.
It’s the reason, despite a 1-2 record, the Breakers have been able to keep each game close (margins of 4 and 7 in the two losses).
Sydney plays with the highest pace in the NBL as the only team that has more than 80 possessions per game (80.9) and they’re No.1 in scoring average at 94.7.
Mitchell says all of that is made possible by their aggressiveness in transition, where they top the league in both scoring — points off opposition misses or in-play turnovers — and efficiency.
“You’ve just got to slow them down because that is the one area where they are absolutely elite,” Mitchell said.
But the Kings have not managed more than 88 against the Breakers — the No.1 defensive team in the league — and average over 9 points less than their season mark across those three meetings.
“New Zealand have been able to keep all those games really close and what they’ve been able to do is limit the Kings to more than four fewer points in transition than their season average,” Mitchell said.
So how do they do it?
It starts at the offensive end.
“The Breakers must minimise live-ball turnovers and ensure long rebounds don’t convert to transition opportunities,” he said.
Primary ballhandler Will McDowell-White possesses elite decision making and had 10 assists to just two turnovers in their sole win over the Kings. Sixth Man of the Year Barry Brown is similar in his ability to look after the ball.
It’s the importance of a former charge in ex-Phoenix guard Izayah Le’Afa Mitchell has identified.
“The guy who punts it everywhere is Izayah Le’Afa. He’s got a 20 per cent turnover rate, which means 20 out of every 100 possessions end up in the opponent’s hands, and that’s very high,” Mitchell said.
“His play is really important because, what he’s been good at in the two games he has played against the Kings this season is he’s averaged 16 points, shot it at 62 per cent from the field and 62.5 per cent from the three and he’s a defensive key who only turned it over 1.5 times per game.
“His discipline with the ball at that end makes him a better plus-minus guy, reduces offensive transition opportunities for Sydney and makes his defensive prowess even more valuable.”
So what happens when the Kings can’t get out and run?
“They really rely on breaking men down one-on-one or (gun import point guard Derrick) Walton Jr, who is good at finding teammates in the pick n roll, but they’re not dominant in their half-court execution,” Mitchell said.
“If you can keep them out of transition and force them into being a half-court team, you’re half way to your goal.”
Cadee says another way to do that is to put the Kings on the free throw line — where they have been abysmal in NBL23, equal-second worst in the league at 71 per cent.
“Allowing nothing easy at the rim (for the Kings), especially to the guys who are poor free-throw shooters, can definitely play a part,” Cadee said.
“Especially when it’s not getting any of your main guys in foul trouble.
“If you can do it the right way, it’s a chance to help as it can disrupt offence and slow the game right down, especially if they are missing the free throws.”
2. KEEPING DJ CORKED
Mitchell has seen just how devastating Sydney igniter Dejan Vasiljevic can be, having stood courtside earlier this season as the 25-year-old went nuclear with a remarkable 10 three-pointers in a 42-point monster.
“We gave him six opponents on the night,” Mitchell says, helplessly.
It’s harder to do that under grand-final pressure but every moment matters and Mitchell sees DJ as “a little genie who pops out of the bottle and blows you away quickly”.
“The expectation is this is going to be a bit of a grinding, low-scoring series, if you take the regular season games as an indicator,” he said
“It’s going to come down to moments. He’s that bloke, last year, in the final in game two against Tassie, who we saw take the game away in a matter of minutes.
“He goes bang, bang, bang — and you’ve lost.”
No team has had more success against Vasiljevic this season than the Breakers. He averages double-digit points against every other NBL club but New Zealand, where he’s been held to 8.7 per game and shot just 32 per cent from the field and 28.6 per cent from deep.
Mitchell says it’s because the Breakers are the best-equipped team to deal with DJ’s scoring abilities.
“They have the personnel to keep him corked — Izayah Le’Afa, Tom Abercrombie, Will McDowell-White are all gifted athletes who go about it in different ways,” he said.
“Obviously one of them, at all times, is going to have to be guarding Walton Jr, but I think they’ve got the guys who can sit on DJ and stop him.
“If they can’t, they’re in a world of hurt.”
3. THE UNSUNG HERO
Import Justin Simon makes his name on the defensive end, but the American has accounted for over 16 per cent of the Kings’ points against the Breakers this season.
He’s provided 13, 14 and 16 across those three games — all well above the 10.5ppg he’s averaged on the season.
“Simon has been that model of consistency against New Zealand,” Mitchell said.
“This has to be addressed by the Breakers. He thrives in the open court, so stopping the Kings’ transition will go toward curtailing his influence.”
But there’s more to Simon’s offensive contribution than running and gunning for easy buckets.
The Kiwis’ penchant for crowding the lane defensively allows him to maximise one of his best skills.
“What New Zealand want to do is really crowd the paint, so they will overplay their help defence and, rather than let you finish at the rim, they’ll force you to kick it out,” Mitchell said.
“That creates opportunities for deep shooters — which is not one of Simon’s best skills — but what he does to counter that is he’s exceptional at timing his cuts and not sitting in the corners.
“So, on that penetration, the Breakers are over helping and he’ll get in behind the defence for an easy feed and finish or, if he doesn’t receive the ball and the shot goes up, he launches himself at those offensive boards to create second-chance opportunities.”
4. DECISIVE MATCH UP
The marquee individual match ups get all the attention — more on that later — but a less-heralded battle could go a long way toward deciding the series.
It’s the clash of the big boys in New Zealand’s Dererk Pardon and Sydney’s Tim Soares.
“If I was to ask you, ‘who is the better out of those two’, your immediate answer is going to be ‘well, it’s he bloke who was second-team All-NBL and a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year’ — straight off the bat, it’s Pardon, right?,” Mitchell said.
“He’s had a better season 12.5 points, 8.3 rebounds, best screener in the league, he’s the bloke who is going to jump out at you.
“But Soares has gone under the radar.
“His numbers are solid — a bit over 10 points and five boards — but he’s only played 20 minutes a night. His efficiency is high — he shoots just under 55 per cent from the field and just under 43 per cent from the arc and he actually blocks more shots than Pardon per 100 possessions on defence.”
Most-importantly, the big Brazilian has been able to contain his opposite number, while getting his own at the other end.
“In their games this year, he’s either outplayed Pardon or at least broken even,” Mitchell said.
“Pardon’s averaging 11 points and under six rebounds — both well below his season averages and he’s turned it over three times per game.
“He’s shooting 62.5 per cent from the field, but he’s just not been dominant.
“Soares, in playing less minutes, has averaged 10 points and 7 boards and been almost as efficient, but only had one turnover.”
Mitchell says the on-paper advantage the Breakers would expect must eventuate, with the onus on Pardon to take it to Soares.
Former NBL MVP Derek Rucker believes Soares is susceptible — case in point his scoreless performance in the Kings’ game two semi-final loss to Cairns.
The legendary guard says both Soares and fellow big man Jordy Hunter must lift against the Breakers.
“Soares and Hunter have to play well in this series because they didn’t against Cairns,” Rucker said.
“They can’t afford to be like that again because New Zealand are tough up front and Tom Abercrombie plays bigger than you think.
“If Soares and Hunter don’t show up, that is a lot of pressure on Xavier Cooks — how is his body going to hold up over a five-game series?”
5. STAR WARS AND THE ‘STUPID STAT’
Cooks v Brantley.
Walton Jr v McDowell-White.
Vasiljevic v Brown Jr.
They’re the marquee match ups which will get all the attention and who wins them is crucial. If Sydney just breaks even in those match ups, Mitchell believes the Kings will win the series.
But he says Brown Jr is the Breakers’ ace.
The 26-year-old is No.1 in a little-used, but hyper-important stat that has the potential to be series-shaping — he leads the league in average points scored in the last four seconds of the shot clock at 3 per game.
“It’s a stupid stat and that doesn’t sound like a lot but, when playoff games start, it tightens right up and, as I said earlier, games get decided by moments,” Mitchell said.
“A bloke who can go and create his own shot, it’s so important, and three points from Brown late in the shot clock could mean the difference between a win and a loss.”
Brown Jr’s been playing with a broken hand, but coach Mody Maor has assured he is fully healthy, meaning his leading scorer — at 19.7 per game — will be ready to unleash on the Kings.
“They’re 16-7 with him in the line-up and two wins, three losses when he hasn’t played,” Mitchell said.
“They’re a different team with him on the floor and I’ve got first-hand experience.
“We blew them out of the park in one of the games he didn’t play, then we played them the next time with Brown Jr and they pantsed us — he had 31 points on 11-18 shooting.
“He leads them in scoring, he’s safe with the ball and he has to make plenty of shots if they are going to win.”
Cadee agrees the American is the Breaker the Kings should fear most.
“There’s been a lot put on Will McDowell-White the last four weeks and how he’s performed but I think Brown enables Will to do his thing,” Cadee said.
“Brown showed in game three of the semis he can break a game open and, in a series against a team like Sydney, him having multiple big games will give the Breakers their biggest chance at winning.
“He’ll tick the scoreboard over but also help other guys like Pardon and Brantley do their thing.”
SO WHO WINS?
Mitchell says the Breakers cannot be underestimated and boast a deep squad — but he has “more trust” in the reigning champs.
“The Kings have got supporting guys in Kouat Noi and Shaun Bruce who have both had game winners this year, Angus Glover brings speed, athleticism and aggression, with Jordy Hunter and Jaylin Galloway in there at times,” Mitchell said.
“I don’t think they’re invincible and the Breakers are a deep, tough team, but I have more trust in the Kings’ roleplayers performing. Plus, their stars have been there and done that last year.”
Cadee agrees with Rucker on the Kings health, believing only injury stands in the way of consecutive titles for the Kings.
“I don’t feel like the Kings have shown any glaring weaknesses throughout this season,” Cadee said.
“One thing will definitely be the health of their key pieces.
“Xav and Walton have both been under injury clouds at different points during the back end of the season, so having them fully fit over the entire series will be crucial to them going back-to-back.”
More Coverage
Originally published as NBL grand final 2023: Analysing the keys to success in the Kings-Breakers championship series
Reverse trades! Top SuperCoach target ruled out
The most traded player in SuperCoach NBL this week will miss both games of his team’s round 4 double with injury. Get the latest here plus expert trade advice.
Crosscourt: Gazey’s left-field pick for return of Boomers’ coach
The hunt for the Boomers’ next head coach is heating up, and hoops legend Andrew Gaze has floated a left-field option. We take a closer look at all the contenders, and more in this week’s Crosscourt.